Chongqing Tongliang Long v Shandong Luneng prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Shandong Luneng SHANDONG LUNENG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Shandong Luneng win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shandong Luneng win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shandong Luneng 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
2′Little has changed for our model: Shandong Luneng 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
27′Zhang Zhixiong scores for Chongqing Tongliang Long on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
28′Zhang Zhixiong scores for Chongqing Tongliang Long on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Chongqing Tongliang Long win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Shandong Luneng win 15%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Shandong Luneng win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Chongqing Tongliang Long win 31%)
30′We said Shandong Luneng at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
31′We said Shandong Luneng at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 63–23–14
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 63–23–13
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Shandong Luneng win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Chongqing Tongliang Long win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Shandong Luneng win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 Shandong Luneng
46′SECOND HALF Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 Shandong Luneng
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shandong Luneng · On: R. Merkies · Off: Liu Yang Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shandong Luneng · On: Huang Zhengyu · Off: Memet Imran Corrected
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Shandong Luneng · V. Qazaishvili
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Chen Chunxin · Off: Liang Weipeng Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Liu Mingshi · Off: Wei Suowei Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' P. Alvaro · Shandong Luneng
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Shandong Luneng · On: Shi Songchen · Off: Chen Pu Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Shandong Luneng · V. Qazaishvili
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Gao Zhunyi · Shandong Luneng
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shandong Luneng · On: J. Lu · Off: Gao Zhunyi Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Du Yuezheng · Off: L. Dimata Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Wu Yongqiang · Off: G. Cimpanu Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Shandong Luneng · On: Chen Zeshi · Off: Xie Wenneng Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Du Yuezheng · Chongqing Tongliang Long
FTFULL TIME Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Shandong Luneng
FTChongqing Tongliang Long 1–1 Shandong Luneng · Shandong Luneng win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chongqing Tongliang Long win32%

Draw26%

Shandong Luneng win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:35

VenueLongxing Football Stadium

Line-ups

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Shandong Luneng

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Shandong Luneng

35Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shandong Luneng	26	+3	43
12	Chongqing Tongliang Long	26	−5	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Formation not confirmed

1 Yao Haoyang

37 Wei Suowei

6 Jin Pengxiang

33 Lucao

3 Zhang Yingkai

26 He Xiaoqiang

9 G. Cimpanu

10 I. Amadou

16 Zhang Zhixiong

18 Liang Weipeng

11 L. Dimata

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · Yerzat Yerjet

31 · Wu Zitong

24 · Liu Mingshi

27 · Wu Yongqiang

21 · Liu Jiale

19 · Du Yuezheng

7 · Xiang Yuwang

17 · Ng Yu-Hei

15 · Chen Chunxin

Shandong Luneng

3-4-3

14 Wang Dalei

3 Peng Xiao

23 P. Alvaro

33 Gao Zhunyi

7 Xie Wenneng

38 Memet Imran

8 Guilherme Madruga

11 Liu Yang

28 Mijit Mewlan

10 V. Qazaishvili

29 Chen Pu

Coach · Tian Tang

Substitutes

32 · Sun Qihang

1 · Yu Jinyong

36 · Liu Qiwei

35 · Huang Zhengyu

5 · Zheng Zheng

15 · Shi Songchen

22 · Y. Li

37 · Chen Zeshi

34 · Yin Jiaxi

17 · R. Merkies

41 · J. Lu

Our number · shandong luneng winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Shandong Luneng a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shandong luneng win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chongqing Tongliang Long win	32%	38%	−5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Shandong Luneng win	41%	35%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw	59%	65%	−7
Chongqing Tongliang Long clean sheet	23%	–	–
Shandong Luneng clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 8.6 6.9 3.5 1 7.4 12.2 8.6 4.3 2 5.2 7.5 5.5 2.8 3 2.3 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chongqing Tongliang Long down, Shandong Luneng across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,417 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Shandong Luneng away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 1.50 for Shandong Luneng. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:29. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHA 3–1 CHO

Form · last six in Super League

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG

LLDLDL0–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

SHANDONG LUNENG

WWWLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	27	+20	52
2	Beijing Guoan	27	+19	46
3	Shanghai Shenhua	27	+12	44
4	Shandong Luneng	26	+3	43
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	+9	41
6	Dalian Zhixing	26	−4	40
7	Tianjin Teda	27	+5	38
8	Qingdao Youth Island	26	−1	38
9	Yunnan Yukun	27	−3	38
10	Hangzhou Greentown	27	0	36
11	Henan Jianye	27	−2	34
12	Chongqing Tongliang Long	26	−5	31
13	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	−11	29
14	Wuhan Three Towns	26	−7	26
15	Shenyang Urban	26	−13	25
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	−22	21