Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chongqing Tongliang Long win~~53%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.335

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chongqing Tongliang Long win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chongqing Tongliang Long was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
1′KICK-OFF Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon
3′Chongqing Tongliang Long ahead on 2′ through an own goal by Sun Zheng'ao. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon · Sun Zheng'ao (own goal)
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Chongqing Tongliang Long win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
4′We published Chongqing Tongliang Long at 53%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
5′GOAL DISALLOWED · 5' Chongqing Tongliang Long
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Chongqing Tongliang Long win: 53% at kick-off, 52% now
20′Chongqing Tongliang Long ahead on 19′ through G. Cimpanu. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 2' Sun Zheng'ao · Chongqing Tongliang Long
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon · G. Cimpanu
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Chongqing Tongliang Long win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
31′L. Dimata scores for Chongqing Tongliang Long on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon · L. Dimata
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Chongqing Tongliang Long win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
32′L. Dimata scores for Chongqing Tongliang Long on 30′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
33′We published Chongqing Tongliang Long at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Liu Xinyu · Off: L. Tufegdzic
46′SECOND HALF Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon
51′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Song Long · Qingdao Jonoon
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Du Yuezheng · Off: L. Dimata
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: He Xiaoqiang · Off: Zhang Yingkai
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Chen Chunxin · Off: Liang Weipeng
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Song Wenjie · Off: C. Strandberg
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Liu Jiashen · Off: Sun Zheng'ao
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Luo Senwen · Off: Gong Ruicong
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Liu Jiale · Off: G. Cimpanu
80′We published Chongqing Tongliang Long at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Chongqing Tongliang Long · On: Wu Yongqiang · Off: Xiang Yuwang Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Qingdao Jonoon · On: Lin Chuangyi · Off: Jin Yonghao
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' He Xiaoqiang · Chongqing Tongliang Long
FTFULL TIME Chongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon
FTChongqing Tongliang Long 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon · Chongqing Tongliang Long win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chongqing Tongliang Long are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chongqing Tongliang Long 53%, draw 26%, Qingdao Jonoon 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao JonoonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chongqing Tongliang Long win53%

Draw26%

Qingdao Jonoon win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueTongliang Long Stadium

Line-ups

Chongqing Tongliang Long

4-4-2

Qingdao Jonoon

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chongqing Tongliang Long

Qingdao Jonoon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	28	−5	33
16	Qingdao Jonoon	28	−26	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chongqing Tongliang Long

4-4-2

1 Haoyang Yao

37 Wei Suowei

4 Ruijie Yue

33 Lucão

3 Zhang Yingkai

9 Alexandru Cîmpanu

10 Ibrahim Amadou

16 Zhixiong Zhang

18 Weipeng Liang

11 Nany Dimata

7 Yuwang Xiang

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · Du Yuezheng

26 · Xiaoqiang He

15 · Chen Chunxin

21 · Jiale Liu

27 · Yongqiang Wu

31 · Wu Zitong

25 · Yeerzhati Yeerjieti

6 · Pengxiang Jin

24 · Mingshi Liu

38 · Qilong Ruan

17 · Yu-Hei Ng

Qingdao Jonoon

4-4-2

28 Pengfei Mu

37 Zixian Wei

14 Zheng'ao Sun

23 Long Song

29 Suda Li

7 Yaw Yeboah

20 Ruicong Gong

6 Malcom Edjouma

34 Yonghao Jin

32 Lazar Tufegdžić

10 Carlos Strandberg

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · Xinyu Liu

19 · Song Wenjie

33 · Liu Jiashen

31 · Senwen Luo

8 · Chuangyi Lin

1 · Jun Liu

16 · Hailong Li

17 · Qiao Wang

24 · Ngan Cheuk Pan

30 · Shiwei Che

27 · Zhaolei Kuang

21 · Liu Guobao

Our number · chongqing tongliang long winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market75%

Us53%

~~Market~~75%

We make Chongqing Tongliang Long a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon~~1.63 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 14 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 33 v 14~~9 v 16

~~The market · Chongqing Tongliang Long win~~75% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chongqing Tongliang Long win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chongqing Tongliang Long win	53%	75%	−22
Draw	26%	17%	+9
Qingdao Jonoon win	21%	8%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	47%	59%	−12
Both teams to score	49%	45%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	38%	−12
Chongqing Tongliang Long or draw	79%	92%	−13
Chongqing Tongliang Long clean sheet	40%	–	–
Qingdao Jonoon clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.7 6.7 3.4 1 12.0 12.1 5.4 2 10.1 9.2 4.3 3 5.5 5.0 2.3 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chongqing Tongliang Long down, Qingdao Jonoon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,428 Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chongqing Tongliang Long at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Qingdao Jonoon away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long, 0.93 for Qingdao Jonoon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~QIN 0–1 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 14 Aug

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG

DLDLDD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

QINGDAO JONOON

LLLLLL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chengdu Better City	28	+17	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	28	+2	46
3	Beijing Guoan	28	+20	44
4	Shandong Luneng	28	+8	41
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	28	+12	39
6	Yunnan Yukun	28	−3	39
7	Qingdao Youth Island	28	−6	38
8	Shanghai Shenhua	28	+14	37
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	28	−5	33
10	Tianjin Teda	28	+6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	28	−5	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	28	−13	29
13	Shenyang Urban	28	−9	29
14	Henan Jianye	28	−3	28
15	Wuhan Three Towns	28	−9	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	28	−26	14