Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Super League › Chengdu Better City v Dalian Zhixing

Back
China flag

Chengdu Better City v Dalian Zhixing

Chengdu Better City
0–1Full time
Dalian Zhixing

Super League · SAT 24 OCT · Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02
Chengdu Better City 0–1 Dalian Zhixing CHENGDU BETTER CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chengdu Better City win57%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.024
The market’s Brier score0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chengdu Better City win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Chengdu Better City 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chengdu Better City v Dalian Zhixing
  4. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' He Yiran · Chengdu Better City
  5. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' P. Delgado · Dalian Zhixing
  6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Chengdu Better City win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  7. 40′PENALTY MISSED · 40' Felipe Silva · Chengdu Better City
  8. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' I. Alimi · Dalian Zhixing
  9. 43′We said Chengdu Better City at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–35–19
  10. 45′We said Chengdu Better City at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–36–19
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Chengdu Better City 0–0 Dalian Zhixing
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Chengdu Better City 0–0 Dalian Zhixing
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 40–43–18
  14. 56′We said Chengdu Better City at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
  15. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Chengdu Better City win 41%)
  16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Chengdu Better City win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  17. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dalian Zhixing · On: Yang Mingrui · Off: Luo Jing
  18. 63′We said Chengdu Better City at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
  19. 64′Chengdu Better City have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–51–16
  20. 67′66′: M. Traore on the scoresheet for Dalian Zhixing, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–24–69
  21. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Chengdu Better City 0–1 Dalian Zhixing · M. Traore
  22. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Chengdu Better City win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  23. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Dalian Zhixing win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 53%)
  24. 68′We said Chengdu Better City at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–24–70
  25. 73′We said Chengdu Better City at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  26. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chengdu Better City · On: Wang Ziming · Off: Romulo
  27. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chengdu Better City · On: Y. Li · Off: Han Pengfei
  28. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chengdu Better City · On: Wang Dongsheng · Off: He Yiran
  29. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chengdu Better City · On: Liao Rongxiang · Off: Abduweli Behram
  30. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Liao Jintao · Dalian Zhixing
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dalian Zhixing · On: Lu Peng · Off: F. Acheampong
  32. 91′Chengdu Better City level it on 90′ through H. Hu. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–92–3
  33. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Chengdu Better City 1–1 Dalian Zhixing · H. Hu
  34. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Dalian Zhixing win 94%)
  35. 92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' H. Hu · Chengdu Better City
  36. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Dalian Zhixing win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 94%)
  37. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Dalian Zhixing · On: Huang Shan · Off: P. Delgado
  38. FTFULL TIME Chengdu Better City 0–1 Dalian Zhixing
  39. FTChengdu Better City 0–1 Dalian Zhixing · Chengdu Better City win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chengdu Better City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chengdu Better City 57%, draw 23%, Dalian Zhixing 20%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Chengdu Better City v Dalian ZhixingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chengdu Better City win57%
Draw23%
Dalian Zhixing win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueChengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Line-ups

Chengdu Better City

4-2-3-1

Dalian Zhixing

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chengdu Better City

Dalian Zhixing

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese Super League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chengdu Better City28+1752
2Dalian Zhixing28+246

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chengdu Better City

4-2-3-1

32 Liu Dianzuo

4 He Yiran

18 Han Pengfei

28 Egor Sorokin

2 Hu Hetao

16 Yang Ming-Yang

5 Matheus Jussa

11 Wellington Silva

10 Rômulo

27 Baihelamu Abuduwaili

9 Felipe Silva

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · Weifeng Ran

1 · Tao Jian

17 · Wang Dongsheng

22 · Yang Li

58 · Liao Rongxiang

29 · Iminqari Mutallep

39 · Gan Chao

23 · Liao Lisheng

6 · Feng Zhuoyi

25 · Mirahmetjan Muzepper

20 · Wang Ziming

Dalian Zhixing

4-2-3-1

20 Weiguo Liu

38 Lü Zhuoyi

2 Mamadou Traoré

6 Yue Song

12 Feng Boxuan

40 Jintao Liao

4 Isnik Alimi

9 Pedro Delgado

10 Nicolae Stanciu

7 Luo Jing

30 Frank Acheampong

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · Zihao Huang

1 · Ge Peng

33 · Haiqing Cao

28 · Kangbo Sun

5 · Peng Shunjie

44 · Feng Jin

8 · Huachen Zhang

21 · Peng Lü

27 · Yang Mingrui

23 · Shan Huang

37 · Chengrui Zhang

59 · Lirong Xiao

Our number · chengdu better city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
57% The market47%
Us57%
Market47%

We make Chengdu Better City a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chengdu Better City v Dalian Zhixing1.89 – 1.01
Form · last six in Super League this season · since 15 AugW2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 52 v 461 v 2
The market · Chengdu Better City win47% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 08:08
Our probability · Chengdu Better City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chengdu Better City win57%47%+10
Draw23%25%−2
Dalian Zhixing win20%28%−8
Over 2.5 goals55%59%−4
Both teams to score54%61%−7
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals33%38%−5
Chengdu Better City or draw80%72%+8
Chengdu Better City clean sheet37%––
Dalian Zhixing clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%
0123450 6.4 5.1 2.9 1 9.9 10.9 5.2 2 9.7 9.6 4.8 3 6.1 6.0 3.0 4 3.0 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chengdu Better City down, Dalian Zhixing across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored0 of 3
Last meetingsDAL 2–0 CHE · DAL 0–2 CHE · CHE 2–0 DAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 15 Aug

CHENGDU BETTER CITY

WLWDLL3–2 · 4–5 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

DALIAN ZHIXING

DWDWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chengdu Better City28+1752
2Dalian Zhixing28+246
3Beijing Guoan28+2044
4Shandong Luneng28+841
5SHANGHAI SIPG28+1239
6Yunnan Yukun28−339
7Qingdao Youth Island28−638
8Shanghai Shenhua28+1437
9Chongqing Tongliang Long28−533
10Tianjin Teda28+631
11Hangzhou Greentown28−531
12Sichuan Jiuniu28−1329
13Shenyang Urban28−929
14Henan Jianye28−328
15Wuhan Three Towns28−922
16Qingdao Jonoon28−2614

The competition's standings before kick-off.