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Yichun Grand Tiger v Rizhao Yuqi

Yichun Grand Tiger
0–0Full time
Rizhao Yuqi

League Two · SAT 24 OCT · Wenzhou Sports Centre

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said a draw37%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.599
The market’s Brier score0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 30–37–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Yichun Grand Tiger v Rizhao Yuqi
  4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 47% now
  5. 38′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 49%. 0–0 · 25–49–27
  6. 41′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 50%. 0–0 · 24–50–26
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Ou Xueqian · Off: Han Tianlin
  9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Y. Lu · Off: Lu Shihao
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi
  11. 50′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 55%. 0–0 · 22–55–23
  12. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 57% now
  13. 57′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 19–60–21
  14. 63′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 17–65–18
  15. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
  16. 68′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–0 · 15–70–16
  17. 73′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
  18. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Wei Lai · Off: Memetimin Mewlan
  19. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Zhang Yue · Off: Sun Xinkai
  20. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  21. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Sun Weikai · Off: Wu Yuchen
  22. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Y. Wang · Off: Wei Zhenghong
  23. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Hua Mingcan · Yichun Grand Tiger
  24. 77′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–0 · 10–80–10
  25. 81′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–0 · 7–85–8
  26. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Yang Shengming · Off: Hu Yubo Corrected
  27. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
  28. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Yang Shengming · Off: Hu Yubo
  29. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: J. He · Off: Li Jiaheng
  30. 84′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rizhao Yuqi · On: S. Wang · Off: Xiao Yufeng
  32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rizhao Yuqi · On: O. Abdukerim · Off: Chen Kerui
  33. 90′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–0 · 3–95–3
  34. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Y. Wang · Yichun Grand Tiger
  35. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
  36. FTFULL TIME Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi
  37. FTYichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Yichun Grand Tiger 30%, draw 37%, Rizhao Yuqi 33%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Yichun Grand Tiger v Rizhao YuqiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Yichun Grand Tiger win30%
Draw37%
Rizhao Yuqi win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 28

VenueWenzhou Sports Centre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yichun Grand Tiger

Rizhao Yuqi

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Rizhao Yuqi27−333
21Yichun Grand Tiger27−1426

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
37% The market32%
Us37%
Market32%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Yichun Grand Tiger v Rizhao Yuqi0.80 – 0.86
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 AugW2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 26 v 3321 v 15
The market · Draw32% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:15
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Yichun Grand Tiger win30%40%−10
Draw37%32%+5
Rizhao Yuqi win33%29%+4
Over 2.5 goals23%35%−12
Both teams to score32%43%−11
Over 1.5 goals50%60%−10
Over 3.5 goals9%18%−9
Yichun Grand Tiger or draw67%71%−4
Yichun Grand Tiger clean sheet43%––
Rizhao Yuqi clean sheet45%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.6%
0123450 20.6 15.1 7.0 2.1 1 14.0 13.8 5.5 2 6.1 5.2 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Yichun Grand Tiger down, Rizhao Yuqi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.40
Over 2.50 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsRIZ 2–0 YIC · RIZ 1–0 YIC · YIC 0–0 RIZ · YIC 2–0 RIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

YICHUN GRAND TIGER

WWLDLL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

RIZHAO YUQI

DWWLLD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Shanghai Port II28+1950
2Xi'an Ronghai28+1350
3Guizhou Zhucheng28+1449
4Dalian Kewei27+1148
5Shandong Taishan II27+1347
6Shenzhen 202827+941
7Langfang Glory City28−441
8Tai'an Tiankuang28+540
9Hubei Chufeng Heli27+639
10Dalian Yingbo B28+439
11Jiangxi Liansheng27+439
12Nantong Haimen Codion27+837
13Xiamen Feilu28+437
14Guangdong Mingtu27+435
15Rizhao Yuqi27−333
16Qingdao Red Lions28−232
17Changchun Xidu27−1031
18Shangyu Pterosaur28−1731
19Guangzhou Dandelion28−730
20Wuhan Three Towns II27−427
21Yichun Grand Tiger27−1426
22Chengdu Rongcheng II28−1225
23BIT28−2125
24Shanghai Second27−2018

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.