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Yichun Grand Tiger v Rizhao Yuqi
Yichun Grand Tiger
Rizhao YuqiLeague Two · SAT 24 OCT · Wenzhou Sports Centre
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 30–37–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Yichun Grand Tiger v Rizhao Yuqi
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 47% now
- 38′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 49%. 0–0 · 25–49–27
- 41′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 50%. 0–0 · 24–50–26
- 45′HALF-TIME Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Ou Xueqian · Off: Han Tianlin
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Y. Lu · Off: Lu Shihao
- 46′SECOND HALF Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi
- 50′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 55%. 0–0 · 22–55–23
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 57% now
- 57′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 19–60–21
- 63′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 17–65–18
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
- 68′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–0 · 15–70–16
- 73′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Wei Lai · Off: Memetimin Mewlan
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Zhang Yue · Off: Sun Xinkai
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Sun Weikai · Off: Wu Yuchen
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Y. Wang · Off: Wei Zhenghong
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Hua Mingcan · Yichun Grand Tiger
- 77′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–0 · 10–80–10
- 81′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–0 · 7–85–8
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Yang Shengming · Off: Hu Yubo Corrected
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Yang Shengming · Off: Hu Yubo
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: J. He · Off: Li Jiaheng
- 84′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rizhao Yuqi · On: S. Wang · Off: Xiao Yufeng
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rizhao Yuqi · On: O. Abdukerim · Off: Chen Kerui
- 90′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–0 · 3–95–3
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Y. Wang · Yichun Grand Tiger
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
- FTFULL TIME Yichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi
- FTYichun Grand Tiger 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
A draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Yichun Grand Tiger 30%, draw 37%, Rizhao Yuqi 33%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 32%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Yichun Grand Tiger win30%
Rizhao Yuqi win33%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30
RoundRelegation Group · matchday 28
VenueWenzhou Sports Centre
Match timeline
All events
Yichun Grand TigerMIN
Rizhao YuqiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Yichun Grand Tiger
Rizhao Yuqi
Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League Two
Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yichun Grand Tiger win | 30% | 40% | −10 |
| Draw | 37% | 32% | +5 |
| Rizhao Yuqi win | 33% | 29% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 35% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | 32% | 43% | −11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 18% | −9 |
| Yichun Grand Tiger or draw | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Yichun Grand Tiger clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Rizhao Yuqi clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug
YICHUN GRAND TIGER
RIZHAO YUQI
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 28 | +19 | 50 |
| 2 | Xi'an Ronghai | 28 | +13 | 50 |
| 3 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 28 | +14 | 49 |
| 4 | Dalian Kewei | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 5 | Shandong Taishan II | 27 | +13 | 47 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 27 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | Langfang Glory City | 28 | −4 | 41 |
| 8 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 28 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 27 | +6 | 39 |
| 10 | Dalian Yingbo B | 28 | +4 | 39 |
| 11 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 27 | +4 | 39 |
| 12 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 27 | +8 | 37 |
| 13 | Xiamen Feilu | 28 | +4 | 37 |
| 14 | Guangdong Mingtu | 27 | +4 | 35 |
| 15 | Rizhao Yuqi | 27 | −3 | 33 |
| 16 | Qingdao Red Lions | 28 | −2 | 32 |
| 17 | Changchun Xidu | 27 | −10 | 31 |
| 18 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 28 | −17 | 31 |
| 19 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 28 | −7 | 30 |
| 20 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 27 | −4 | 27 |
| 21 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 27 | −14 | 26 |
| 22 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 28 | −12 | 25 |
| 23 | BIT | 28 | −21 | 25 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 27 | −20 | 18 |
Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.
Shanghai Port II
Xi'an Ronghai
Guizhou Zhucheng
Dalian Kewei
Shandong Taishan II
Shenzhen 2028
Langfang Glory City
Tai'an Tiankuang
Hubei Chufeng Heli
Dalian Yingbo B
Jiangxi Liansheng
Nantong Haimen Codion
Xiamen Feilu
Guangdong Mingtu
Qingdao Red Lions
Changchun Xidu
Shangyu Pterosaur
Guangzhou Dandelion
Wuhan Three Towns II
Chengdu Rongcheng II
BIT
Shanghai Second