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Yichun Grand Tiger v Changchun Xidu

Yichun Grand Tiger

1–2Full time

Changchun Xidu

League Two · MON 12 OCT · Wenzhou Sports Centre

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 15:01

Yichun Grand Tiger 1–2 Changchun Xidu DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.830

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 53 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yichun Grand Tiger was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–35–29
31′Much as we predicted: Yichun Grand Tiger was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 31% now. 0–0 · 31–44–25
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Changchun Xidu · On: Feng Zijun · Off: Yang Jingfan
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Changchun Xidu · On: Wang Tianci · Off: Liu Yang
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Y. Lu · Off: Wei Zhenghong
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Changchun Xidu · On: He Youzu · Off: Memet Nuryasin
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Y. Wang · Yichun Grand Tiger
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Y. Wang · Yichun Grand Tiger
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Ou Xueqian · Yichun Grand Tiger
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Feng Zijun · Changchun Xidu
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Hua Mingcan · Off: Ruan Sai
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Zhang Zhijie · Off: Li Jiaheng
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Yichun Grand Tiger win 31%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Yichun Grand Tiger 1–2 Changchun Xidu · Wang Song
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Changchun Xidu · On: Z. Yu · Off: Huang Wenzhuo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: J. He · Off: Lu Jiabin
FTFULL TIME Yichun Grand Tiger 1–2 Changchun Xidu
FTYichun Grand Tiger 1–2 Changchun Xidu · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Yichun Grand Tiger win36%

Draw36%

Changchun Xidu win28%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 12:30

VenueWenzhou Sports Centre

Line-ups

Yichun Grand Tiger

Changchun Xidu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Yichun Grand Tiger

Changchun Xidu

6Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Yichun Grand Tiger

Formation not confirmed

12 Chen Zhao

27 Ou Xueqian

55 Gao Le

6 Zhao Wenzhe

18 Lu Jiabin

8 Han Tianlin

16 Wu Yuchen

17 Wei Zhenghong

10 Ruan Sai

9 Li Jiaheng

21 Y. Wang

Coach · –

Substitutes

52 · He Xiang

19 · Yao Xilong

57 · J. He

58 · Y. Liu

7 · Y. Lu

36 · Hua Mingcan

22 · I. Abdugheni

50 · Q. Zhuang

25 · X. Wang

43 · Zhang Zhijie

53 · Sun Weikai

39 · Ouyang Chengzhuo

Changchun Xidu

Formation not confirmed

17 H. Hu

5 Yang Lei

58 Kadir Aysan

15 Geng Xianglong

11 Sun Fei

6 Liu Yang

10 Huang Wenzhuo

3 Yangyang Ma

29 Memet Nuryasin

45 Yang Jingfan

39 Liang Huan

Coach · Zoran Jankovic

Substitutes

22 · Yang Xinyang

44 · Chen Quanjiang

13 · Wang Tianci

24 · Liu Jiahao

37 · Li Jiaqi

18 · Zhong Weihong

8 · Z. Yu

23 · Ye-Yang Runyi

14 · He Youzu

2 · Wang Song

49 · Feng Zijun

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yichun Grand Tiger win	36%	41%	−5
Draw	36%	33%	+3
Changchun Xidu win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	24%	34%	−10
Both teams to score	32%	41%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	50%	59%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	9%	17%	−8
Yichun Grand Tiger or draw	72%	74%	−2
Yichun Grand Tiger clean sheet	47%	–	–
Changchun Xidu clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.3%

0123450 20.3 13.4 5.5 1 15.9 13.6 4.9 2 7.7 5.8 2.2 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yichun Grand Tiger down, Changchun Xidu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 League Two matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 306 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Yichun Grand Tiger at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Changchun Xidu away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Yichun Grand Tiger, 0.76 for Changchun Xidu. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meeting of these two in League Two since 2022 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

YICHUN GRAND TIGER

DDWWLD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

CHANGCHUN XIDU

LDWWDD1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
3	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
14	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17