Xiamen Feilu v Tai'an Tiankuang prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 15:01

Xiamen Feilu 0–0 Tai'an Tiankuang XIAMEN FEILU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Xiamen Feilu win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Xiamen Feilu win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Xiamen Feilu 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Xiamen Feilu v Tai'an Tiankuang
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Chen Zeng · Xiamen Feilu
31′Little has changed for our model: Xiamen Feilu 41% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–36–28
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Xiamen Feilu win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Xiamen Feilu 0–0 Tai'an Tiankuang
46′SECOND HALF Xiamen Feilu 0–0 Tai'an Tiankuang
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xiamen Feilu · On: Weng Haoxuan · Off: Tursun Qeyser
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xiamen Feilu · On: Wu Wei · Off: Zhong Minghzi
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Gao Jian · Tai'an Tiankuang
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Yao Daogang · Off: Memet-Ali Memet-Raim
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: J. Lai · Off: An Yongjian
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Li Bowen · Xiamen Feilu
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Xiamen Feilu · On: J. Gao · Off: Lu Chenghe
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Xiamen Feilu · On: Xu Wu · Off: Cui Wei Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Ba Te · Off: Lei Guanzhang
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Pang Zhiquan · Off: Muhtar Ular
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Xiamen Feilu · On: Han Kunda · Off: Shi Letian
FTFULL TIME Xiamen Feilu 0–0 Tai'an Tiankuang
FTXiamen Feilu 0–0 Tai'an Tiankuang · Xiamen Feilu win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Xiamen Feilu win41%

Draw30%

Tai'an Tiankuang win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 12:30

VenueHaicang Sports Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Xiamen Feilu

Tai'an Tiankuang

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Xiamen Feilu

Tai'an Tiankuang

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
14	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Xiamen Feilu

Formation not confirmed

28 Zhou Yuchen

3 Zhong Minghzi

30 Liang Peiwen

16 Li Bowen

8 Chen Zeng

13 Liao Lei

11 Shi Letian

10 Lu Chenghe

23 Cui Wei

18 Tursun Qeyser

7 Liu Ziming

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Li Yuefeng

33 · Wang Zijie

22 · Wu Wei

20 · J. Gao

2 · Han Yiheng

24 · Li Diantong

9 · Xu Wu

48 · Han Kunda

21 · Weng Haoxuan

38 · Dai Yuping

29 · Zhao Boyang

Tai'an Tiankuang

Formation not confirmed

1 Wei Zichao

22 Wang Bohan

31 Tong Zhicheng

3 Zhu Jiayi

14 Hai Xiaorui

13 Lei Guanzhang

8 Yuan Xiuqi

28 An Yongjian

18 Memet-Ali Memet-Raim

30 Gao Jian

36 Muhtar Ular

Coach · Wenbo Qu

Substitutes

24 · Wang Kailong

26 · Chen Yu

29 · Yao Xuejian

39 · J. Lai

2 · Yao Daogang

20 · Halimurat Kamiran

32 · Mao Ziyu

34 · Pang Zhiquan

38 · Ba Te

Our number · xiamen feilu winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Xiamen Feilu a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · xiamen feilu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xiamen Feilu win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Tai'an Tiankuang win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Xiamen Feilu or draw	70%	69%	+1
Xiamen Feilu clean sheet	35%	–	–
Tai'an Tiankuang clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.0 9.3 5.4 1 11.4 13.7 6.7 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.3 3 3.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xiamen Feilu down, Tai'an Tiankuang across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 League Two matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 306 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Xiamen Feilu at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tai'an Tiankuang away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Xiamen Feilu, 1.06 for Tai'an Tiankuang. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meeting of these two in League Two since 2022 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

XIAMEN FEILU

DWLLWL0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

TAI'AN TIANKUANG

DLDDDW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
3	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
14	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17