Xiamen Feilu v Qingdao Red Lions prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Xiamen Feilu 3–0 Qingdao Red Lions XIAMEN FEILU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Xiamen Feilu win~~39%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.566

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Xiamen Feilu win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Xiamen Feilu was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–29
1′KICK-OFF Xiamen Feilu v Qingdao Red Lions
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Han Kunda · Xiamen Feilu
16′16′: Liu Ziming on the scoresheet for Xiamen Feilu. 0–0 · 37–35–28
16′We published Xiamen Feilu at 39%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Xiamen Feilu 1–0 Qingdao Red Lions · Liu Ziming
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Xiamen Feilu win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–7
39′We published Xiamen Feilu at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Xiamen Feilu 1–0 Qingdao Red Lions
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xiamen Feilu · On: Piao Taoyu · Off: Xu Wu
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' J. Gao · Xiamen Feilu
55′SECOND HALF Xiamen Feilu 1–0 Qingdao Red Lions
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Xiamen Feilu win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
58′We published Xiamen Feilu at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′60′: Liu Ziming on the scoresheet for Xiamen Feilu, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
60′We published Xiamen Feilu at 39%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Xiamen Feilu · On: Gu Jiayi · Off: Zhong Minghzi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Xiamen Feilu · On: Weng Haoxuan · Off: Han Kunda
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Xiamen Feilu 2–0 Qingdao Red Lions · Liu Ziming
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Xiamen Feilu win: 39% at kick-off, 97% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Sun Weijia · Off: Zhou Jianyi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Wen Zhengkuan · Off: Xu Jiashi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Xiamen Feilu · On: Tursun Qeyser · Off: Cui Wei Corrected
66′We published Xiamen Feilu at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′Xiamen Feilu ahead on 66′ through Weng Haoxuan. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Xiamen Feilu 3–0 Qingdao Red Lions
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Xiamen Feilu win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Chen Shihao · Off: Deng Jiajie
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Li Mingfan · Off: E. Emet
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Xiamen Feilu · On: Li Diantong · Off: Wu Wei
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Mei Jingxuan · Off: Z. Li
FTFULL TIME Xiamen Feilu 3–0 Qingdao Red Lions
FTXiamen Feilu 3–0 Qingdao Red Lions · Xiamen Feilu win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Xiamen Feilu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Xiamen Feilu 39%, draw 32%, Qingdao Red Lions 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Xiamen Feilu v Qingdao Red LionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Xiamen Feilu win39%

Draw32%

Qingdao Red Lions win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueHaicang Sports Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Xiamen Feilu

Qingdao Red Lions

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Xiamen Feilu

Qingdao Red Lions

6Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 13 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
19	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Xiamen Feilu

Formation not confirmed

1 Li Yuefeng

3 Zhong Minghzi

20 J. Gao

13 Liao Lei

30 Liang Peiwen

22 Wu Wei

11 Shi Letian

23 Cui Wei

9 Xu Wu

48 Han Kunda

7 Liu Ziming

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · Wang Zijie

47 · Shi Yunfeng

2 · Han Yiheng

24 · Li Diantong

18 · Tursun Qeyser

39 · Gu Jiayi

21 · Weng Haoxuan

38 · Dai Yuping

59 · Piao Taoyu

29 · Zhao Boyang

Qingdao Red Lions

Formation not confirmed

24 He Zhizhe

13 Yao Zhiyu

28 Sun Xu

55 X. Huang

4 Huang Yuxuan

39 Z. Li

8 Zhou Jianyi

6 E. Emet

18 Xu Jiashi

10 Osmanjan Abduhelil

11 Deng Jiajie

Coach · Yang Zhang

Substitutes

30 · Sheng Muze

23 · D. Zhang

9 · Chen Shihao

20 · Mehmut Ferdanwus

14 · Wen Zhengkuan

21 · Chen Zitong

33 · Sun Weijia

32 · You Wenjie

7 · Li Mingfan

22 · G. Wang

17 · Chen Jiaqi

26 · Mei Jingxuan

Our number · xiamen feilu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market45%

Us39%

~~Market~~45%

We make Xiamen Feilu a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Xiamen Feilu v Qingdao Red Lions~~1.15 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 29~~14 v 19

~~The market · Xiamen Feilu win~~45% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Xiamen Feilu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xiamen Feilu win	39%	45%	−6
Draw	32%	32%	0
Qingdao Red Lions win	29%	23%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	66%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Xiamen Feilu or draw	71%	77%	−6
Xiamen Feilu clean sheet	39%	–	–
Qingdao Red Lions clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.7 10.5 5.7 1 12.7 14.2 6.3 2.1 2 7.9 7.4 3.6 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xiamen Feilu down, Qingdao Red Lions across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Xiamen Feilu at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Qingdao Red Lions away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Xiamen Feilu, 0.97 for Qingdao Red Lions. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~QIN 1–0 XIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 16 Aug

XIAMEN FEILU

WLLWLD2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

QINGDAO RED LIONS

DLWLLD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	27	+20	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	+6	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
9	Langfang Glory City	27	−5	38
10	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
11	Dalian Yingbo B	27	+3	36
12	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
13	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
14	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
19	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	27	−14	26
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
23	BIT	27	−21	24
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18