Xi'an Ronghai v Shenzhen 2028 prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 10:33

Xi'an Ronghai 1–0 Shenzhen 2028 XI'AN RONGHAI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Xi'an Ronghai win~~35%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.479

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Xi'an Ronghai win at 35%.
1′KICK-OFF Xi'an Ronghai v Shenzhen 2028
2′Much as we predicted: Xi'an Ronghai was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Xi'an Ronghai win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Xi'an Ronghai 0–0 Shenzhen 2028
46′SECOND HALF Xi'an Ronghai 0–0 Shenzhen 2028
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45+2' Shenzhen 2028 · On: Yongsu Huang · Off: C. Lu
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Xi'an Ronghai win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Wang Ziyang · Shenzhen 2028
60′We said Xi'an Ronghai at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
68′We said Xi'an Ronghai at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Shenzhen 2028 · On: Z. Huang · Off: L. Li
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Xi'an Ronghai win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
76′We said Xi'an Ronghai at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
78′Chen Xiangyu scores for Xi'an Ronghai on 78′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Xi'an Ronghai 1–0 Shenzhen 2028 · Chen Xiangyu
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Xi'an Ronghai win: 35% at kick-off, 88% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Xi'an Ronghai win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
79′Chen Xiangyu scores for Xi'an Ronghai on 77′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
79′We published Xi'an Ronghai at 35%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
80′We published Xi'an Ronghai at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shenzhen 2028 · On: P. Li · Off: Li Mingjie
87′We published Xi'an Ronghai at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shenzhen 2028 · On: N. Pan · Off: W. Chen
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Xi'an Ronghai win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Xi'an Ronghai · On: Wang Haowen · Off: Yang Yixuan
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Xi'an Ronghai · On: Ling Zhongyang · Off: Zhang Hui
FTFULL TIME Xi'an Ronghai 1–0 Shenzhen 2028
FTXi'an Ronghai 1–0 Shenzhen 2028 · Xi'an Ronghai win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Xi'an Ronghai just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Xi'an Ronghai 35%, draw 30%, Shenzhen 2028 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Xi'an Ronghai v Shenzhen 2028Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Xi'an Ronghai win35%

Draw30%

Shenzhen 2028 win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 27

VenueTaiyuan University Football Stadium - Artificial grass

Line-ups

Xi'an Ronghai

Shenzhen 2028

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Xi'an Ronghai

Shenzhen 2028

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Xi'an Ronghai	26	+13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Xi'an Ronghai

Formation not confirmed

13 Zhang Haixuan

16 Ding Yunfeng

4 J. Wang

60 Zhang Junzhe

39 Zhang Tianlong

38 Zhang Hui

10 B. Iskandar

23 Yang Yixuan

37 Nurlan Nurzat

33 Chen Xiangyu

9 K. Palmanjan

Coach · Rui Cao

Substitutes

31 · Y. Zhuoyu

15 · Wang Kuan

30 · Ling Zhongyang

28 · Chen Shaohao

24 · Wang Haowen

5 · Yang Wenjie

2 · Z. Chen

55 · L. He

49 · Lu Jiajun

8 · H. Luan

20 · Y. Zhu

26 · Xie Jinzheng

Shenzhen 2028

Formation not confirmed

43 J. Yuan

45 Z. Yuan

5 J. Hai

55 Huang Keqi

4 Li Mingjie

8 W. Chen

6 Luan Cheng

15 Z. Chen

57 Wang Ziyang

11 C. Lu

20 L. Li

Coach · Duliang Li

Substitutes

1 · M. Hao

14 · P. Liu

17 · Z. Shi

28 · Wang Zhiyuan

30 · H. Hu

10 · P. Li

27 · Q. Liu

24 · N. Pan

29 · Z. Deng

47 · Z. Huang

12 · Yongsu Huang

Our number · xi'an ronghai winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

35% The market43%

Us35%

~~Market~~43%

We make Xi'an Ronghai a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Xi'an Ronghai v Shenzhen 2028~~1.16 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 41~~2 v 6

~~The market · Xi'an Ronghai win~~43% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Xi'an Ronghai win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xi'an Ronghai win	35%	43%	−8
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Shenzhen 2028 win	34%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	46%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Xi'an Ronghai or draw	66%	73%	−7
Xi'an Ronghai clean sheet	33%	–	–
Shenzhen 2028 clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.6 10.5 6.5 2.5 1 10.7 14.0 7.3 2.8 2 6.8 7.5 4.2 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xi'an Ronghai down, Shenzhen 2028 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 312 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Xi'an Ronghai at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Shenzhen 2028 away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Xi'an Ronghai, 1.13 for Shenzhen 2028. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–0 XIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

XI'AN RONGHAI

LDLWDW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

SHENZHEN 2028

DLWDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Xi'an Ronghai	26	+13	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	+10	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	−6	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	26	−20	17