Xi'an Ronghai v Jiangxi Liansheng prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 11:00

Xi'an Ronghai 2–1 Jiangxi Liansheng XI'AN RONGHAI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Xi'an Ronghai win~~36%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.418

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Xi'an Ronghai win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Xi'an Ronghai was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–31–32
1′KICK-OFF Xi'an Ronghai v Jiangxi Liansheng
3′Much as we predicted: Xi'an Ronghai was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–31–32
16′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Xi'an Ronghai · On: J. Wang · Off: Wang Haowen
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Guo Song · Jiangxi Liansheng
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Xi'an Ronghai 1–0 Jiangxi Liansheng · Ding Yunfeng
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Wu Linfeng · Xi'an Ronghai
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Xi'an Ronghai 1–1 Jiangxi Liansheng · Ding Yunfeng
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Xi'an Ronghai 1–1 Jiangxi Liansheng · Zhang Yanjun (assist Li Jiahao)
45′HALF-TIME Xi'an Ronghai 1–1 Jiangxi Liansheng
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xi'an Ronghai · On: Nurlan Nurzat · Off: Wu Linfeng
46′SECOND HALF Xi'an Ronghai 1–1 Jiangxi Liansheng
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Jiangxi Liansheng · On: Zhang Geeryi · Off: Zhu Xusheng Corrected
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Li Jinyu · Xi'an Ronghai
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Xi'an Ronghai 2–1 Jiangxi Liansheng · B. Iskandar
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Jiangxi Liansheng · On: Zhou Jingxiang · Off: Pi Ziyang
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Jiangxi Liansheng · On: Cao Enze · Off: Bai Zijian
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Cao Enze · Jiangxi Liansheng
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Jiangxi Liansheng · On: Li Yan · Off: Guo Song
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Jiangxi Liansheng · On: B. Luo · Off: Sun Yue
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Xi'an Ronghai · On: Ling Zhongyang · Off: B. Iskandar
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Cao Rui · Xi'an Ronghai
FTFULL TIME Xi'an Ronghai 2–1 Jiangxi Liansheng
FTXi'an Ronghai 2–1 Jiangxi Liansheng · Xi'an Ronghai win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Xi'an Ronghai win36%

Draw33%

Jiangxi Liansheng win31%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 08:00

VenueTaiyuan University Football Stadium - Artificial grass

Line-ups

Xi'an Ronghai

Jiangxi Liansheng

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Xi'an Ronghai

Jiangxi Liansheng

6Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Xi'an Ronghai

Formation not confirmed

13 Zhang Haixuan

22 Li Jinyu

60 Zhang Junzhe

39 Zhang Tianlong

24 Wang Haowen

38 Zhang Hui

10 B. Iskandar

16 Ding Yunfeng

19 Wu Linfeng

9 K. Palmanjan

33 Chen Xiangyu

Coach · Rui Cao

Substitutes

31 · Y. Zhuoyu

15 · Wang Kuan

30 · Ling Zhongyang

28 · Chen Shaohao

4 · J. Wang

55 · L. He

37 · Nurlan Nurzat

49 · Lu Jiajun

8 · H. Luan

20 · Y. Zhu

23 · Yang Yixuan

26 · Xie Jinzheng

Jiangxi Liansheng

Formation not confirmed

12 Li Chen

27 Zhang Yanjun

21 X. Zhu

5 Shi Jiwei

22 Li Jiahao

30 J. Huang

33 Guo Song

11 Bai Zijian

26 Pi Ziyang

16 Chen Yunhua

7 Sun Yue

Coach · Jin-han Choi

Substitutes

1 · J. Liang

2 · He Quan

14 · Zhou Jingxiang

8 · Cao Enze

24 · Li Yan

4 · G. Zhang

6 · G. Liu

15 · B. Luo

35 · Y. Ren

Our number · xi'an ronghai winPublished 12 Oct 07:56

36% The market47%

Us36%

~~Market~~47%

We make Xi'an Ronghai a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · xi'an ronghai win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Xi'an Ronghai win	36%	47%	−11
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Jiangxi Liansheng win	31%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	60%	67%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	14%	22%	−8
Xi'an Ronghai or draw	69%	77%	−8
Xi'an Ronghai clean sheet	39%	–	–
Jiangxi Liansheng clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.0%

0123450 15.0 11.9 6.2 2.0 1 13.2 14.1 6.3 2.0 2 7.4 6.9 3.3 3 2.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Xi'an Ronghai down, Jiangxi Liansheng across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 League Two matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 306 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Xi'an Ronghai at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jiangxi Liansheng away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Xi'an Ronghai, 0.95 for Jiangxi Liansheng. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~XIA 0–3 JIA · JIA 1–1 XIA

Form · last six in League Two

XI'AN RONGHAI

WLDLWD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

JIANGXI LIANSHENG

WLWLWL2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
3	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
14	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17