Wuhan Three Towns II v Tai'an Tiankuang prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Wuhan Three Towns II 2–0 Tai'an Tiankuang WUHAN THREE TOWNS II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wuhan Three Towns II win~~35%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wuhan Three Towns II win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wuhan Three Towns II was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–34–31
1′KICK-OFF Wuhan Three Towns II v Tai'an Tiankuang
13′Wuhan Three Towns II ahead on 13′ through Min Zixi. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–10
13′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Wuhan Three Towns II 1–0 Tai'an Tiankuang · Min Zixi
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Wuhan Three Towns II win: 35% at kick-off, 70% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Yuan Xiuqi · Tai'an Tiankuang
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Zhang Tao · Wuhan Three Towns II
43′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Wuhan Three Towns II win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Wuhan Three Towns II 1–0 Tai'an Tiankuang
46′SECOND HALF Wuhan Three Towns II 1–0 Tai'an Tiankuang
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Wu Junhao · Wuhan Three Towns II
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Pang Zhiquan · Off: Memet-Ali Memet-Raim
59′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: J. Lai · Off: Gao Jian
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Xia Xiaoxi · Off: Min Zixi
70′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Wuhan Three Towns II win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Ruan Jingwei · Off: L. Jiang
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Xu Zhengpeng · Off: Zhang Zhenyang
78′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Jiang Weilang · Off: Zhang Tao
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Zhu Jiayi · Tai'an Tiankuang
85′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Wuhan Three Towns II win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Chen Yu · Off: Wang Bohan
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Yao Daogang · Off: Muhtar Ular
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Ba Te · Off: Lei Guanzhang
89′Wu Junhao scores for Wuhan Three Towns II on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Wuhan Three Towns II 2–0 Tai'an Tiankuang · Wu Junhao
90′We published Wuhan Three Towns II at 35%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Wuhan Three Towns II 2–0 Tai'an Tiankuang
FTWuhan Three Towns II 2–0 Tai'an Tiankuang · Wuhan Three Towns II win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wuhan Three Towns II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Wuhan Three Towns II 35%, draw 34%, Tai'an Tiankuang 32%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Wuhan Three Towns II v Tai'an TiankuangBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wuhan Three Towns II win35%

Draw34%

Tai'an Tiankuang win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueWuhan Sports Centre

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns II

Tai'an Tiankuang

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wuhan Three Towns II

Tai'an Tiankuang

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns II

Formation not confirmed

1 He Jianqiu

43 Zhang Tao

35 Yu Tianle

4 Memetimin Zikrulla

11 Wu Junhao

24 L. Jiang

27 Z. Xia

56 Zhang Zhenyang

17 Abdugheni Halit

19 Z. Zhao

16 Min Zixi

Coach · Weiwei Chang

Substitutes

36 · Zheng Yiran

3 · Jiang Weilang

34 · Ruan Jingwei

26 · Ruan Jingyang

32 · J. Xu

10 · Gao Yunan

6 · Yang Fan

55 · Zhu Wenchuan

54 · Xu Zhengpeng

9 · Y. Liu

57 · Xia Xiaoxi

59 · Li Zigan

Tai'an Tiankuang

Formation not confirmed

1 Wei Zichao

22 Wang Bohan

31 Tong Zhicheng

3 Zhu Jiayi

14 Hai Xiaorui

28 An Yongjian

8 Yuan Xiuqi

13 Lei Guanzhang

30 Gao Jian

18 Memet-Ali Memet-Raim

36 Muhtar Ular

Coach · Wenbo Qu

Substitutes

24 · Wang Kailong

26 · Chen Yu

39 · J. Lai

2 · Yao Daogang

21 · H. Deng

19 · Zhang Bohan

32 · Mao Ziyu

34 · Pang Zhiquan

38 · Ba Te

Our number · wuhan three towns ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

35% The market39%

Us35%

~~Market~~39%

We make Wuhan Three Towns II a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wuhan Three Towns II v Tai'an Tiankuang~~0.99 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 37~~22 v 9

~~The market · Wuhan Three Towns II win~~39% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wuhan Three Towns II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wuhan Three Towns II win	35%	39%	−4
Draw	34%	30%	+4
Tai'an Tiankuang win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Both teams to score	39%	46%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	58%	64%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	13%	19%	−6
Wuhan Three Towns II or draw	68%	69%	−1
Wuhan Three Towns II clean sheet	40%	–	–
Tai'an Tiankuang clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 12.5 6.3 2.0 1 13.4 14.2 6.1 2 7.2 6.5 3.0 3 2.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wuhan Three Towns II down, Tai'an Tiankuang across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 312 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wuhan Three Towns II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tai'an Tiankuang away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Wuhan Three Towns II, 0.93 for Tai'an Tiankuang. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TAI 0–0 WUH · TAI 2–1 WUH · WUH 1–1 TAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

WUHAN THREE TOWNS II

LWDLWD0–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

TAI'AN TIANKUANG

LDDDWD0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Xi'an Ronghai	26	+13	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	+10	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	−6	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	26	−20	17