Wuhan Three Towns II v BIT prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:33

Wuhan Three Towns II 1–1 BIT WUHAN THREE TOWNS II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Wuhan Three Towns II win~~47%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.938

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wuhan Three Towns II win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Wuhan Three Towns II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
11′Much as we predicted: Wuhan Three Towns II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–24
26′Z. Wang scores for BIT on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–26–57
30′Z. Wang scores for BIT on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–26–58
35′We said Wuhan Three Towns II at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–62
45′44′ and it is 1–1: Abdugheni Halit on the scoresheet for Wuhan Three Towns II. 1–1 · 37–42–21
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wuhan Three Towns II win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was BIT win 21%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wuhan Three Towns II win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' BIT win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Draw 26%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' BIT win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Wuhan Three Towns II win 12%)
46′SECOND HALF Wuhan Three Towns II 1–1 BIT
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Jiang Weilang · Off: L. Jiang
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' BIT · On: Sun Lijunxiong · Off: Li Xinyao
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' BIT · On: Hu Jiaqi · Off: Liu Tianyang
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Ruan Jingwei · Off: Z. Zhao
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Zhu Wenchuan · Off: Zhang Tao
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Wuhan Three Towns II · On: Li Zigan · Off: Zhang Zhenyang
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' BIT · On: Zhao Xiangyi · Off: Li Libo
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' BIT · On: Mao Peng · Off: Z. Wang
FTFULL TIME Wuhan Three Towns II 1–1 BIT
FTWuhan Three Towns II 1–1 BIT · Wuhan Three Towns II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Wuhan Three Towns II win47%

Draw29%

BIT win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

VenueWuhan Sports Centre

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns II

BIT

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Wuhan Three Towns II

BIT

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Wuhan Three Towns II

Formation not confirmed

1 He Jianqiu

43 Zhang Tao

35 Yu Tianle

4 Memetimin Zikrulla

11 Wu Junhao

24 L. Jiang

27 Z. Xia

17 Abdugheni Halit

57 Xia Xiaoxi

56 Zhang Zhenyang

19 Z. Zhao

Coach · Weiwei Chang

Substitutes

36 · Zheng Yiran

3 · Jiang Weilang

34 · Ruan Jingwei

26 · Ruan Jingyang

25 · He Jincheng

41 · Li Xingchen

10 · Gao Yunan

6 · Yang Fan

55 · Zhu Wenchuan

9 · Y. Liu

59 · Li Zigan

BIT

Formation not confirmed

24 Su Jiawei

21 Wang Chenyang

39 Zheng Zehao

45 Deng Jiajun

2 Liu Tianyang

16 Bai Jiong

25 K. Yu

9 Li Libo

18 J. Wei

44 Li Xinyao

41 Z. Wang

Coach · Fei Yu

Substitutes

23 · Li Chuyu

4 · Jia Hanlin

26 · Ren Shizhe

43 · Hu Runchao

37 · Li Qiya

17 · Mao Peng

6 · Hu Jiaqi

11 · Zhang Yuye

52 · Zhao Xiangyi

5 · Zhang Teng

12 · Li Xi

29 · Sun Lijunxiong

Our number · wuhan three towns ii winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

47% The market59%

Us47%

~~Market~~59%

We make Wuhan Three Towns II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wuhan three towns ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wuhan Three Towns II win	47%	59%	−12
Draw	29%	25%	+4
BIT win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−6
Wuhan Three Towns II or draw	76%	84%	−8
Wuhan Three Towns II clean sheet	40%	–	–
BIT clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.8 8.2 4.2 1 12.7 13.1 5.7 2 9.4 8.6 4.0 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wuhan Three Towns II down, BIT across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 League Two matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wuhan Three Towns II at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). BIT away: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Wuhan Three Towns II, 0.93 for BIT. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WUH 2–0 BIT · BIT 1–0 WUH

Form · last six in League Two

WUHAN THREE TOWNS II

LLWDLW0–2 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

BIT

WDWWLW2–1 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17