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Tai'an Tiankuang v Chengdu Rongcheng II

Tai'an Tiankuang

3–1Full time

Chengdu Rongcheng II

League Two · SAT 24 OCT · Taishan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38

Tai'an Tiankuang 3–1 Chengdu Rongcheng II TAI'AN TIANKUANG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tai'an Tiankuang win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.513

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tai'an Tiankuang win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Tai'an Tiankuang v Chengdu Rongcheng II
2′Little has changed for our model: Tai'an Tiankuang 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–28
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Tai'an Tiankuang win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Tai'an Tiankuang 0–0 Chengdu Rongcheng II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Tai'an Tiankuang win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
46′SECOND HALF Tai'an Tiankuang 0–0 Chengdu Rongcheng II
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Halimurat Kamiran · Tai'an Tiankuang
52′We said Tai'an Tiankuang at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–50–22
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Muhtar Ular · Tai'an Tiankuang
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Chen Siliang · Off: Wang Yueheng
58′Tai'an Tiankuang ahead on 58′ through Yuan Xiuqi. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′We said Tai'an Tiankuang at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Tai'an Tiankuang 1–0 Chengdu Rongcheng II · Yuan Xiuqi
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Tai'an Tiankuang win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Tai'an Tiankuang win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 55%)
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–17–3
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Yi Yuchong · Off: Li Wenle
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Huang Zhenghan · Off: S. Luo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Pang Zhiquan · Off: Muhtar Ular
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Memet-Ali Memet-Raim · Off: Gao Jian
68′Pang Zhiquan scores for Tai'an Tiankuang on 68′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Tai'an Tiankuang 2–0 Chengdu Rongcheng II · Pang Zhiquan
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Tai'an Tiankuang win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
69′We said Tai'an Tiankuang at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
73′73′: Wang Bohan on the scoresheet for Tai'an Tiankuang, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Tai'an Tiankuang 3–0 Chengdu Rongcheng II · Wang Bohan
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Tai'an Tiankuang win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
74′We said Tai'an Tiankuang at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Fu Mingke · Off: Halimurat Kamiran
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: J. Lai · Off: An Yongjian
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: J. Yang · Off: Shuai Weihao
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Yao Younan · Off: Qeyser Ezimet
84′Chengdu Rongcheng II pull one back on 84′ through Yi Yuchong. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Tai'an Tiankuang 3–1 Chengdu Rongcheng II · Yi Yuchong
85′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Tai'an Tiankuang · On: Ye Ruiwen · Off: Tong Zhicheng
FTFULL TIME Tai'an Tiankuang 3–1 Chengdu Rongcheng II
FTTai'an Tiankuang 3–1 Chengdu Rongcheng II · Tai'an Tiankuang win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tai'an Tiankuang are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tai'an Tiankuang 40%, draw 32%, Chengdu Rongcheng II 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Tai'an Tiankuang v Chengdu Rongcheng IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tai'an Tiankuang win40%

Draw32%

Chengdu Rongcheng II win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 28

VenueTaishan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tai'an Tiankuang

Chengdu Rongcheng II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	27	−10	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tai'an tiankuang winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Tai'an Tiankuang a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tai'an Tiankuang v Chengdu Rongcheng II~~1.16 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 37 v 25~~11 v 22

~~The market · Tai'an Tiankuang win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tai'an Tiankuang win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tai'an Tiankuang win	40%	42%	−2
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Chengdu Rongcheng II win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	35%	43%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Tai'an Tiankuang or draw	71%	70%	+1
Tai'an Tiankuang clean sheet	39%	–	–
Chengdu Rongcheng II clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.8 10.4 5.5 1 13.0 14.1 6.1 2 8.2 7.5 3.5 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tai'an Tiankuang down, Chengdu Rongcheng II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,276 League Two matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tai'an Tiankuang at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chengdu Rongcheng II away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Tai'an Tiankuang, 0.94 for Chengdu Rongcheng II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–1 TAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

TAI'AN TIANKUANG

DDDWDL2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II

LDDLDL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	28	+19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	−4	41
8	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	+6	39
9	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
10	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	+8	37
11	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
12	Xiamen Feilu	27	+4	36
13	Dalian Yingbo B	27	+3	36
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
19	Qingdao Red Lions	27	−3	29
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	27	−14	26
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	27	−10	25
23	BIT	27	−21	24
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18