Shangyu Pterosaur v Nantong Haimen Codion prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Shangyu Pterosaur 1–1 Nantong Haimen Codion NANTONG HAIMEN CODION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Nantong Haimen Codion win~~53%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.878

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nantong Haimen Codion win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF Shangyu Pterosaur v Nantong Haimen Codion
3′Little has changed for our model: Nantong Haimen Codion 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 22–25–53
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Shangyu Pterosaur 0–1 Nantong Haimen Codion · Cao Yuetao
19′5′ and it is 0–1: Cao Yuetao on the scoresheet for Nantong Haimen Codion. 0–1 · 7–15–78
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 53% at kick-off, 53% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 53% at kick-off, 53% now
21′5′ and it is 0–1: Cao Yuetao on the scoresheet for Nantong Haimen Codion. 0–1 · 6–15–78
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
40′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
41′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
45′HALF-TIME Shangyu Pterosaur 0–1 Nantong Haimen Codion
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Lu Yuefeng · Off: Yu Haozhen
46′SECOND HALF Shangyu Pterosaur 0–1 Nantong Haimen Codion
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Li Boyang · Off: Liu Guanjun
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Shangyu Pterosaur 1–1 Nantong Haimen Codion · Anqi Luo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Sun Qinan · Off: Pei Guoguang
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Cai Wenxuan · Off: Cheng Yi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Xu Yuese · Off: Zheng Lei
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Cao Yuetao · Nantong Haimen Codion
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: H. Hu · Off: Yu Keli
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Ding Jianhua · Off: Cao Yuetao
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Wang Jiajun · Off: Zhao Yi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Z. Li · Off: Anqi Luo
FTFULL TIME Shangyu Pterosaur 1–1 Nantong Haimen Codion
FTShangyu Pterosaur 1–1 Nantong Haimen Codion · Nantong Haimen Codion win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shangyu Pterosaur win22%

Draw26%

Nantong Haimen Codion win53%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueDingnan Football Youth Training Center

Line-ups

Shangyu Pterosaur

Nantong Haimen Codion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shangyu Pterosaur

Nantong Haimen Codion

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shangyu Pterosaur

Formation not confirmed

14 Han Zhen

18 Guo Fuxin

15 Liu Guanjun

28 Shao Shuai

3 Wang Duolin

19 Jin Jian

41 Anqi Luo

58 Yu Keli

11 Yu Haozhen

22 Abdukerim Qaharman

9 Zhao Yi

Coach · Xiao Yihai

Substitutes

1 · B. Xiao

26 · Li Boyang

29 · Han Fenglin

21 · Lu Yuefeng

33 · Li Dongnan

42 · Z. Zhang

8 · H. Hu

30 · Ren Zening

13 · Liu Zhuchen

47 · Z. Li

7 · Zhou Bingxu

2 · Wang Jiajun

Nantong Haimen Codion

Formation not confirmed

22 Xie Gongbo

46 Xu Kunxing

23 Yu Hang

17 Bai Xianyi

54 Wang Yubo

53 Cheng Yi

21 Chen Weijing

19 Zheng Lei

11 Pei Guoguang

39 Cao Yuetao

9 Yan Ge

Coach · Baoan Cui

Substitutes

14 · Zhang Zixuan

27 · Luo Gaoju

12 · Sun Qinan

41 · Ding Jianhua

47 · Cai Wenxuan

7 · Xu Yuese

42 · Wu Yucheng

51 · Zhou Xianfeng

57 · Fan Yucheng

Our number · nantong haimen codion winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

53% The market55%

Us53%

~~Market~~55%

We make Nantong Haimen Codion a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nantong haimen codion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shangyu Pterosaur win	22%	18%	+4
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Nantong Haimen Codion win	53%	55%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	41%	+8
Both teams to score	51%	43%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	66%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	28%	21%	+7
Shangyu Pterosaur or draw	47%	45%	+2
Shangyu Pterosaur clean sheet	19%	–	–
Nantong Haimen Codion clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 10.9 9.7 5.5 2.4 1 6.2 12.0 9.2 5.2 2.3 2 3.5 5.6 4.6 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shangyu Pterosaur down, Nantong Haimen Codion across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 League Two matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shangyu Pterosaur at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nantong Haimen Codion away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Shangyu Pterosaur, 1.69 for Nantong Haimen Codion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SHA 2–4 NAN · NAN 4–1 SHA · NAN 1–1 SHA · SHA 1–3 NAN

Form · last six in League Two

SHANGYU PTEROSAUR

LLLLWL0–6 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION

WDDDWW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17