Shangyu Pterosaur v BIT prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Shangyu Pterosaur 1–1 BIT SHANGYU PTEROSAUR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Shangyu Pterosaur win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shangyu Pterosaur win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shangyu Pterosaur 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Shangyu Pterosaur v BIT
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Yu Keli · Shangyu Pterosaur
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Shangyu Pterosaur win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Shangyu Pterosaur 0–0 BIT
46′SECOND HALF Shangyu Pterosaur 0–0 BIT
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Shangyu Pterosaur win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
54′Yu Haozhen scores for Shangyu Pterosaur on 54′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
54′Yu Haozhen scores for Shangyu Pterosaur on 53′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Shangyu Pterosaur 1–0 BIT · Yu Haozhen
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Shangyu Pterosaur win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Shangyu Pterosaur win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
55′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
57′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Lu Yuefeng · Off: Yu Keli
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Li Dongnan · Off: Yu Haozhen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' BIT · On: Wang Chenyang · Off: Liu Tianyang
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Liu Guanjun · Off: Wang Duolin
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Shangyu Pterosaur win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
68′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Z. Zhang · Off: Anqi Luo
76′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Shangyu Pterosaur win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Lu Yuefeng · Shangyu Pterosaur
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' BIT · On: Li Xinyao · Off: Hu Jiaqi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' BIT · On: Li Qiya · Off: J. Wei
87′86′: Li Libo on the scoresheet for BIT, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–88–6
87′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–88–6
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Shangyu Pterosaur 1–1 BIT · Li Libo
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Shangyu Pterosaur win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Shangyu Pterosaur win 6%)
90′We said Shangyu Pterosaur at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' BIT · On: Ren Shizhe · Off: Wang Chenyang
FTFULL TIME Shangyu Pterosaur 1–1 BIT
FTShangyu Pterosaur 1–1 BIT · Shangyu Pterosaur win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shangyu Pterosaur just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Shangyu Pterosaur 38%, draw 28%, BIT 34%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Shangyu Pterosaur v BITBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shangyu Pterosaur win38%

Draw28%

BIT win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueDingnan Football Youth Training Center

Line-ups

Shangyu Pterosaur

BIT

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shangyu Pterosaur

BIT

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
23	BIT	26	−21	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shangyu Pterosaur

Formation not confirmed

14 Han Zhen

18 Guo Fuxin

28 Shao Shuai

26 Li Boyang

3 Wang Duolin

19 Jin Jian

41 Anqi Luo

58 Yu Keli

11 Yu Haozhen

22 Abdukerim Qaharman

9 Zhao Yi

Coach · Xiao Yihai

Substitutes

1 · B. Xiao

16 · Z. Zhou

15 · Liu Guanjun

5 · Han Mufan

29 · Han Fenglin

21 · Lu Yuefeng

33 · Li Dongnan

42 · Z. Zhang

13 · Liu Zhuchen

47 · Z. Li

7 · Zhou Bingxu

2 · Wang Jiajun

BIT

Formation not confirmed

24 Su Jiawei

15 M. Longjian

9 Li Libo

6 Hu Jiaqi

2 Liu Tianyang

39 Zheng Zehao

25 K. Yu

18 J. Wei

16 Bai Jiong

45 Deng Jiajun

41 Z. Wang

Coach · Fei Yu

Substitutes

23 · Li Chuyu

4 · Jia Hanlin

26 · Ren Shizhe

43 · Hu Runchao

37 · Li Qiya

11 · Zhang Yuye

52 · Zhao Xiangyi

5 · Zhang Teng

44 · Li Xinyao

12 · Li Xi

21 · Wang Chenyang

29 · Sun Lijunxiong

Our number · shangyu pterosaur winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Shangyu Pterosaur a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shangyu Pterosaur v BIT~~1.36 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 30 v 23~~17 v 23

~~The market · Shangyu Pterosaur win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shangyu Pterosaur win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shangyu Pterosaur win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	28%	30%	−2
BIT win	34%	29%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	46%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Shangyu Pterosaur or draw	66%	71%	−5
Shangyu Pterosaur clean sheet	28%	–	–
BIT clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.5 8.3 5.9 2.6 1 8.8 13.1 7.7 3.4 2 6.6 8.1 5.2 2.3 3 3.0 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shangyu Pterosaur down, BIT across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 312 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shangyu Pterosaur at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). BIT away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Shangyu Pterosaur, 1.29 for BIT. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BIT 1–0 SHA · BIT 3–0 SHA · SHA 1–0 BIT · SHA 3–3 BIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

SHANGYU PTEROSAUR

LLLWLD1–3 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

BIT

DWWLWD2–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
2	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
18	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18