Shanghai Port II v Shenzhen 2028 prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:02

Shanghai Port II 2–1 Shenzhen 2028 SHANGHAI PORT II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shanghai Port II win~~42%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shanghai Port II win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shanghai Port II 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Shanghai Port II v Shenzhen 2028
2′Little has changed for our model: Shanghai Port II 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Shanghai Port II 0–1 Shenzhen 2028 · Z. Yuan
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Shanghai Port II 1–1 Shenzhen 2028 · Wen Junxiang
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' W. Jiang · Shenzhen 2028
23′11′ and it is 1–1: Wen Junxiang on the scoresheet for Shanghai Port II. 1–1 · 40–32–28
24′11′ and it is 1–1: Wen Junxiang on the scoresheet for Shanghai Port II. 1–1 · 39–32–28
45′HALF-TIME Shanghai Port II 1–1 Shenzhen 2028
46′SECOND HALF Shanghai Port II 1–1 Shenzhen 2028
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' J. Hai · Shenzhen 2028
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Shanghai Port II · On: Jiang Tianle · Off: Deming Li
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Shanghai Port II · On: Jiang Tianle · Off: Deming Li
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shenzhen 2028 · On: P. Li · Off: Z. Shi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shenzhen 2028 · On: L. Li · Off: Wang Ziyang
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shenzhen 2028 · On: Z. Chen · Off: W. Chen
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Shanghai Port II 2–1 Shenzhen 2028 · Zhang Huiyu
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Shanghai Port II · On: Jinhong Liang · Off: Li Jaqi
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Shanghai Port II · On: Z. Wang · Off: Xu Ruixuan
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shenzhen 2028 · On: C. Lu · Off: Li Mingjie
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shenzhen 2028 · On: Wang Zhiyuan · Off: Z. Huang
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Shanghai Port II · On: Juncheng Cui · Off: Wen Junxiang Corrected
FTFULL TIME Shanghai Port II 2–1 Shenzhen 2028
FTShanghai Port II 2–1 Shenzhen 2028 · Shanghai Port II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shanghai Port II win42%

Draw28%

Shenzhen 2028 win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 08:30

VenueJinshan Sports Center

Line-ups

Shanghai Port II

Shenzhen 2028

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shanghai Port II

Shenzhen 2028

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shanghai Port II

Formation not confirmed

53 Li Zhiliang

9 Deming Li

30 Xu Ruixuan

24 Li Ruilong

51 T. Liu

16 Li Jaqi

43 Wang Zhaopu

10 Zhang Huiyu

14 Li Shenglong

37 J. Zhang

35 Wen Junxiang

Coach · Cheng Yaodong

Substitutes

1 · Ren Zihao

3 · Z. Wang

20 · Xie Hongyu

48 · Li Junzhe

13 · Jiang Tianle

57 · Jinhong Liang

58 · Cao Zhezhe

17 · Z. Peng

39 · W. Huang

44 · Q. Yang

46 · Juncheng Cui

18 · Han Yang

Shenzhen 2028

Formation not confirmed

43 J. Yuan

45 Z. Yuan

5 J. Hai

55 Huang Keqi

4 Li Mingjie

8 W. Chen

6 Luan Cheng

49 W. Jiang

47 Z. Huang

17 Z. Shi

57 Wang Ziyang

Coach · Duliang Li

Substitutes

1 · M. Hao

14 · P. Liu

15 · Z. Chen

28 · Wang Zhiyuan

30 · H. Hu

10 · P. Li

27 · Q. Liu

24 · N. Pan

29 · Z. Deng

20 · L. Li

11 · C. Lu

12 · Yongsu Huang

Our number · shanghai port ii winPublished 11 Oct 08:34

42% The market35%

Us42%

~~Market~~35%

We make Shanghai Port II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shanghai port ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shanghai Port II win	42%	35%	+8
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Shenzhen 2028 win	29%	35%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	0
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	68%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Shanghai Port II or draw	71%	65%	+5
Shanghai Port II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Shenzhen 2028 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.6 8.5 5.1 1 10.8 13.2 6.8 2.6 2 7.9 8.5 4.6 3 3.7 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shanghai Port II down, Shenzhen 2028 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 League Two matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Shanghai Port II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shenzhen 2028 away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Shanghai Port II, 1.10 for Shenzhen 2028. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

SHANGHAI PORT II

LLWWWL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

SHENZHEN 2028

WDLWDL6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17