Shandong Taishan II v Jiangxi Liansheng prediction · League Two

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Shandong Taishan II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shandong Taishan II 47%, draw 31%, Jiangxi Liansheng 22%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Shandong Taishan II v Jiangxi LianshengBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Shandong Taishan II win47%

Draw31%

Jiangxi Liansheng win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 28

VenueZoucheng Sports Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shandong Taishan II

Jiangxi Liansheng

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
9	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shandong taishan ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Shandong Taishan II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shandong Taishan II v Jiangxi Liansheng~~1.31 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 39~~4 v 9

~~The market · Shandong Taishan II win~~53% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shandong Taishan II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shandong Taishan II win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Jiangxi Liansheng win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	45%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Shandong Taishan II or draw	78%	81%	−3
Shandong Taishan II clean sheet	45%	–	–
Jiangxi Liansheng clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 13.5 8.7 4.0 1 14.6 13.5 5.1 2 10.2 8.1 3.3 3 4.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shandong Taishan II down, Jiangxi Liansheng across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,276 League Two matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shandong Taishan II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jiangxi Liansheng away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Shandong Taishan II, 0.81 for Jiangxi Liansheng. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JIA 2–1 SHA · JIA 1–3 SHA · SHA 2–0 JIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

SHANDONG TAISHAN II

DDLWDD2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

JIANGXI LIANSHENG

WLWLLD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	28	+19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	−4	41
8	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	+6	39
9	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
10	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	+8	37
11	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
12	Xiamen Feilu	27	+4	36
13	Dalian Yingbo B	27	+3	36
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
19	Qingdao Red Lions	27	−3	29
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	27	−14	26
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	27	−10	25
23	BIT	27	−21	24
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18