Home › Football › League Two › Shandong Taishan II v Guizhou Zhucheng

Shandong Taishan II v Guizhou Zhucheng

Shandong Taishan II

1–1Full time

Guizhou Zhucheng

League Two · SUN 11 OCT · Zoucheng Sports Center

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:02

Shandong Taishan II 1–1 Guizhou Zhucheng SHANDONG TAISHAN II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Shandong Taishan II win~~45%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shandong Taishan II win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shandong Taishan II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
2′Much as we predicted: Shandong Taishan II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
23′Guizhou Zhucheng ahead on 11′ through Liu Yujie. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–58
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Shandong Taishan II win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Guizhou Zhucheng win 26%)
24′Guizhou Zhucheng ahead on 11′ through Liu Yujie. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Guizhou Zhucheng win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Shandong Taishan II win 16%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 46% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Shandong Taishan II win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Guizhou Zhucheng win 26%)
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Sun Enming · Guizhou Zhucheng
29′We said Shandong Taishan II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
34′We said Shandong Taishan II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–61
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
39′We said Shandong Taishan II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Shandong Taishan II win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Guizhou Zhucheng win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Shandong Taishan II win 12%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Shandong Taishan II 1–1 Guizhou Zhucheng · Yan Hengye
45′HALF-TIME Shandong Taishan II 1–1 Guizhou Zhucheng
46′SECOND HALF Shandong Taishan II 1–1 Guizhou Zhucheng
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Wu Zhongcan · Off: Y. Chen
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Kong Yinquan · Off: Li Xi'nan
50′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Abduklim Merdanjan · Guizhou Zhucheng
52′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Yan Hengye · Shandong Taishan II
63′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Ma Chongchong · Guizhou Zhucheng
64′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shandong Taishan II · On: Zihan Chen · Off: Hao Fubo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Zheng Shengxiong · Off: Hu Mingtian
69′🟨 YELLOW · 71' I. Ilham · Shandong Taishan II
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Shandong Taishan II · On: Deng Chunze · Off: X. Li
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Yang Youxian · Off: Abduklim Merdanjan
86′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shandong Taishan II · On: Guo Xin · Off: Ma Yinhao
FTFULL TIME Shandong Taishan II 1–1 Guizhou Zhucheng
FTShandong Taishan II 1–1 Guizhou Zhucheng · Shandong Taishan II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shandong Taishan II win45%

Draw29%

Guizhou Zhucheng win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 08:30

VenueZoucheng Sports Center

Line-ups

Shandong Taishan II

Guizhou Zhucheng

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shandong Taishan II

Guizhou Zhucheng

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shandong Taishan II

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Ilham

55 He Bingzhuang

44 Qi Qiancheng

23 Wang Tianyou

60 Hao Fubo

29 Ma Yinhao

8 K. He

40 Mei Shuaijun

43 Y. Wang

18 X. Li

16 Yan Hengye

Coach · Haitao Zhang

Substitutes

50 · Fu Zhenhao

21 · Niu Bowei

2 · Deng Zhiwen

46 · Zihan Chen

35 · Huang Yizhuo

22 · Zhang Xuyao

9 · Sun Ziyue

48 · Yang Yang

14 · Guo Xin

49 · Deng Chunze

7 · Li Yuanjie

30 · Xiao Chenxi

Guizhou Zhucheng

Formation not confirmed

23 J. Chen

40 Y. Chen

27 Zhang Wentao

35 Lu Wentao

33 Feng Yifan

25 Ma Chongchong

21 Hu Mingtian

32 Wang Haozhi

15 Abduklim Merdanjan

57 Li Xi'nan

7 Liu Yujie

Coach · Oscar Cespedes

Substitutes

31 · H. Yan

42 · Luo Wenqi

17 · Zheng Shengxiong

22 · Kong Yinquan

8 · Sun Enming

29 · Xu Jiajun

10 · Chen Chenzhenyang

24 · Wu Zhongcan

28 · Chen Long

11 · Liao Chongjiu

37 · Yang Youxian

41 · Z. Jinghang

Our number · shandong taishan ii winPublished 11 Oct 08:34

45% The market33%

Us45%

~~Market~~33%

We make Shandong Taishan II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shandong taishan ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shandong Taishan II win	45%	33%	+12
Draw	29%	32%	−3
Guizhou Zhucheng win	26%	35%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	63%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	21%	0
Shandong Taishan II or draw	74%	65%	+9
Shandong Taishan II clean sheet	39%	–	–
Guizhou Zhucheng clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.1 8.7 4.6 1 12.5 13.3 6.0 2 9.0 8.4 4.0 3 4.1 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shandong Taishan II down, Guizhou Zhucheng across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 League Two matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shandong Taishan II at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guizhou Zhucheng away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Shandong Taishan II, 0.96 for Guizhou Zhucheng. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GUI 1–0 SHA · SHA 0–2 GUI

Form · last six in League Two

SHANDONG TAISHAN II

WLDDLW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG

LDDLLW3–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17