Rizhao Yuqi v Guangzhou Dandelion prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 10:33

Rizhao Yuqi 0–0 Guangzhou Dandelion RIZHAO YUQI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rizhao Yuqi win~~39%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.677

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rizhao Yuqi win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Rizhao Yuqi v Guangzhou Dandelion
2′Much as we predicted: Rizhao Yuqi was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–33–28
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Wen Wubin · Guangzhou Dandelion
22′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Sun Xinkai · Rizhao Yuqi
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Fan Ruiwei · Guangzhou Dandelion
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rizhao Yuqi win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Rizhao Yuqi 0–0 Guangzhou Dandelion
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Hu Yubo · Off: Zhao Xiaolong
46′SECOND HALF Rizhao Yuqi 0–0 Guangzhou Dandelion
52′We said Rizhao Yuqi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–52–21
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Diao Jiahao · Guangzhou Dandelion
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: Y. Bian · Off: Li Haoyu
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: M. Muhta · Off: J. Lu
59′We said Rizhao Yuqi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
68′We said Rizhao Yuqi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: Wang Junyang · Off: Diao Jiahao
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Nihmat Nihat · Guangzhou Dandelion
75′We said Rizhao Yuqi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–11
81′We said Rizhao Yuqi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–7
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rizhao Yuqi · On: O. Abdukerim · Off: Memetimin Mewlan
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Zhang Yue · Off: Lu Zhiyuan
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: Murathan Ares · Off: Zhang Hao
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' K. Gao · Guangzhou Dandelion
89′We said Rizhao Yuqi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rizhao Yuqi · On: S. Wang · Off: Sun Xinkai
FTFULL TIME Rizhao Yuqi 0–0 Guangzhou Dandelion
FTRizhao Yuqi 0–0 Guangzhou Dandelion · Rizhao Yuqi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rizhao Yuqi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rizhao Yuqi 39%, draw 33%, Guangzhou Dandelion 28%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Rizhao Yuqi v Guangzhou DandelionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rizhao Yuqi win39%

Draw33%

Guangzhou Dandelion win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueLanzhou Olympic Center Stadium

Line-ups

Rizhao Yuqi

Guangzhou Dandelion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rizhao Yuqi

Guangzhou Dandelion

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	−6	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rizhao Yuqi

Formation not confirmed

13 Mu Qianyu

29 Zhao Xiaolong

17 Erkin Ababekri

4 Xiao Yufeng

2 H. Luo

39 Chen Kerui

14 Zhang Zichao

10 Sun Xinkai

18 Memetimin Mewlan

7 J. Lu

40 Lu Zhiyuan

Coach · Wei Hu

Substitutes

1 · Zhang Jihao

15 · Piao Entian

47 · Yang Shengming

33 · Wei Lai

16 · S. Wang

42 · Hu Yubo

30 · Wang Lingke

25 · Zhang Yue

22 · W. Jiang

8 · O. Abdukerim

Guangzhou Dandelion

Formation not confirmed

51 Fan Mengtong

16 K. Gao

5 Nihmat Nihat

17 Li Zhuoxuan

2 Diao Jiahao

9 J. Lu

15 Wen Wubin

20 Fan Ruiwei

47 Li Haoyu

42 Zhang Hao

26 Xu Hong

Coach · Kenichi Uemura

Substitutes

54 · Nasirulla Hesenjan

27 · Murathan Ares

6 · Liang Junheng

8 · M. Muhta

57 · Wang Junyang

21 · Y. Bian

11 · Z. Liang

4 · Liu Xiangchen

45 · L. Tan

Our number · rizhao yuqi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

39% The market45%

Us39%

~~Market~~45%

We make Rizhao Yuqi a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rizhao Yuqi v Guangzhou Dandelion~~1.09 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 29~~15 v 18

~~The market · Rizhao Yuqi win~~45% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rizhao Yuqi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rizhao Yuqi win	39%	45%	−6
Draw	33%	32%	+1
Guangzhou Dandelion win	28%	23%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Both teams to score	39%	40%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
Rizhao Yuqi or draw	72%	77%	−5
Rizhao Yuqi clean sheet	42%	–	–
Guangzhou Dandelion clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 11.3 5.4 1 14.2 14.0 5.7 2 8.3 7.1 3.1 3 3.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rizhao Yuqi down, Guangzhou Dandelion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 312 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rizhao Yuqi at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Guangzhou Dandelion away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Rizhao Yuqi, 0.87 for Guangzhou Dandelion. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GUA 1–2 RIZ · RIZ 1–0 GUA · GUA 0–0 RIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

RIZHAO YUQI

WDWWLL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

GUANGZHOU DANDELION

WDLLDW3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Xi'an Ronghai	26	+13	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	+10	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	−6	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	26	−20	17