Rizhao Yuqi v Guangdong Mingtu prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

Rizhao Yuqi 1–2 Guangdong Mingtu RIZHAO YUQI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rizhao Yuqi win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.814

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.893

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rizhao Yuqi win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Rizhao Yuqi was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–34–27
3′Much as we predicted: Rizhao Yuqi was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–34–27
13′9′ and it is 0–1: Gu Zhiwei on the scoresheet for Guangdong Mingtu. 0–1 · 13–25–63
15′9′ and it is 0–1: Gu Zhiwei on the scoresheet for Guangdong Mingtu. 0–1 · 12–25–63
23′Rizhao Yuqi ahead on 17′ through Zhao Xiaolong. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–40–25
25′Rizhao Yuqi ahead on 17′ through Zhao Xiaolong. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–41–25
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Rizhao Yuqi win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
45′HALF-TIME Rizhao Yuqi 1–1 Guangdong Mingtu
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rizhao Yuqi win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Rizhao Yuqi 1–1 Guangdong Mingtu
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Liu Shuai · Guangdong Mingtu
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Guangdong Mingtu · On: Tian Li · Off: Huang Guangliang
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Guangdong Mingtu · On: Xin Hongjun · Off: J. He
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Liu Xinyu · Off: S. Wang
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Wei Lai · Off: Zhao Xiaolong
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Memetimin Mewlan · Off: O. Abdukerim
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Guangdong Mingtu · On: Yang Zhengyi · Off: Zhu Xinyu
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Guangdong Mingtu · On: Sun Chenxi · Off: Gu Zhiwei
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' H. Fang · Guangdong Mingtu
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rizhao Yuqi · On: W. Jiang · Off: Zhang Zichao
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rizhao Yuqi · On: Zhang Yue · Off: Sun Xinkai
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Guangdong Mingtu · On: Z. Wu · Off: H. Fang
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Rizhao Yuqi 1–2 Guangdong Mingtu · W. Zhong
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Xin Hongjun · Guangdong Mingtu
90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Wei Lai · Rizhao Yuqi
FTFULL TIME Rizhao Yuqi 1–2 Guangdong Mingtu
FTRizhao Yuqi 1–2 Guangdong Mingtu · Rizhao Yuqi win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rizhao Yuqi win39%

Draw35%

Guangdong Mingtu win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

VenueLanzhou Olympic Center Stadium

Line-ups

Rizhao Yuqi

Guangdong Mingtu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rizhao Yuqi

Guangdong Mingtu

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rizhao Yuqi

Formation not confirmed

13 Mu Qianyu

29 Zhao Xiaolong

47 Yang Shengming

4 Xiao Yufeng

2 H. Luo

39 Chen Kerui

8 O. Abdukerim

10 Sun Xinkai

14 Zhang Zichao

7 J. Lu

16 S. Wang

Coach · Wei Hu

Substitutes

1 · Zhang Jihao

57 · X. Lu

19 · Liu Xinyu

33 · Wei Lai

42 · Hu Yubo

30 · Wang Lingke

25 · Zhang Yue

22 · W. Jiang

60 · R. Xie

40 · Lu Zhiyuan

18 · Memetimin Mewlan

Guangdong Mingtu

Formation not confirmed

14 C. Li

22 H. Fang

21 Liu Shuai

36 Tan Zhennan

52 W. Zhong

16 M. Cai

6 Huang Guangliang

17 Wang Tanyou

7 Gu Zhiwei

43 Zhu Xinyu

42 J. He

Coach · Ander Sanabria

Substitutes

45 · J. Li

28 · Zhang Zhihao

12 · Chen Rijin

51 · H. Yao

8 · Tian Li

19 · Ye Zimin

40 · Sun Chenxi

33 · J. Qu

11 · Xin Hongjun

9 · Li Ming

50 · Z. Wu

46 · Yang Zhengyi

Our number · rizhao yuqi winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Rizhao Yuqi a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rizhao yuqi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rizhao Yuqi win	39%	46%	−7
Draw	35%	31%	+4
Guangdong Mingtu win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	25%	36%	−11
Both teams to score	33%	43%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	52%	62%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	10%	19%	−9
Rizhao Yuqi or draw	74%	77%	−3
Rizhao Yuqi clean sheet	47%	–	–
Guangdong Mingtu clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.0%

0123450 19.0 12.5 5.1 1 16.3 13.5 4.8 2 8.4 6.2 2.4 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rizhao Yuqi down, Guangdong Mingtu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 League Two matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rizhao Yuqi at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guangdong Mingtu away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Rizhao Yuqi, 0.76 for Guangdong Mingtu. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GUA 1–2 RIZ · RIZ 3–0 GUA

Form · last six in League Two

RIZHAO YUQI

DWDWWL2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

GUANGDONG MINGTU

DWLWDD0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17