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Qingdao Red Lions v Shangyu Pterosaur

Qingdao Red Lions

1–0Full time

Shangyu Pterosaur

League Two · SAT 24 OCT · Qingdao Tiantai Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:02

Qingdao Red Lions 1–0 Shangyu Pterosaur QINGDAO RED LIONS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Qingdao Red Lions win~~52%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Qingdao Red Lions win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Qingdao Red Lions 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–29–19
1′KICK-OFF Qingdao Red Lions v Shangyu Pterosaur
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Yao Zhiyu · Qingdao Red Lions
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Chen Zitong · Qingdao Red Lions
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Qingdao Red Lions win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
42′We said Qingdao Red Lions at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–42–18
44′We said Qingdao Red Lions at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
45′HALF-TIME Qingdao Red Lions 0–0 Shangyu Pterosaur
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Qingdao Red Lions win 41%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Chen Shihao · Off: Osmanjan Abduhelil
46′SECOND HALF Qingdao Red Lions 0–0 Shangyu Pterosaur
49′Z. Li scores for Qingdao Red Lions on 48′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
49′We said Qingdao Red Lions at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Qingdao Red Lions 1–0 Shangyu Pterosaur · Z. Li
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Qingdao Red Lions win: 52% at kick-off, 83% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Qingdao Red Lions win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 45%)
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
58′We said Qingdao Red Lions at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Li Dongnan · Off: Wang Jiajun
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Z. Li · Off: Yu Haozhen
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Abdukerim Qaharman · Shangyu Pterosaur
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jin Jian · Shangyu Pterosaur
74′We said Qingdao Red Lions at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Qingdao Red Lions win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Han Fenglin · Off: Abdukerim Qaharman
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Zhou Bingxu · Off: Yu Keli
83′We said Qingdao Red Lions at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Zhao Yi · Shangyu Pterosaur
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Sun Weijia · Off: Z. Li
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shangyu Pterosaur · On: Z. Zhang · Off: Zhao Yi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sun Weijia · Qingdao Red Lions
FTFULL TIME Qingdao Red Lions 1–0 Shangyu Pterosaur
FTQingdao Red Lions 1–0 Shangyu Pterosaur · Qingdao Red Lions win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Qingdao Red Lions are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Qingdao Red Lions 52%, draw 29%, Shangyu Pterosaur 19%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Qingdao Red Lions v Shangyu PterosaurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Qingdao Red Lions win52%

Draw29%

Shangyu Pterosaur win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 08:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 28

VenueQingdao Tiantai Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Qingdao Red Lions

Shangyu Pterosaur

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
19	Qingdao Red Lions	27	−3	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · qingdao red lions winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

52% The market76%

Us52%

~~Market~~76%

We make Qingdao Red Lions a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 24 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Qingdao Red Lions v Shangyu Pterosaur~~1.45 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 29 v 31~~19 v 17

~~The market · Qingdao Red Lions win~~76% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Qingdao Red Lions win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Qingdao Red Lions win	52%	76%	−24
Draw	29%	17%	+12
Shangyu Pterosaur win	19%	7%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	38%	52%	−14
Both teams to score	42%	37%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	75%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	32%	−13
Qingdao Red Lions or draw	81%	93%	−12
Qingdao Red Lions clean sheet	46%	–	–
Shangyu Pterosaur clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 12.3 7.4 3.3 1 14.5 12.9 4.7 2 11.1 8.5 3.3 3 5.5 4.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Qingdao Red Lions down, Shangyu Pterosaur across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,276 League Two matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Qingdao Red Lions at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shangyu Pterosaur away: 0.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Qingdao Red Lions, 0.78 for Shangyu Pterosaur. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHA 2–1 QIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

QINGDAO RED LIONS

LWLLDL0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

SHANGYU PTEROSAUR

LLWLDD0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	28	+19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	−4	41
8	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	+6	39
9	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
10	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	+8	37
11	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
12	Xiamen Feilu	27	+4	36
13	Dalian Yingbo B	27	+3	36
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
19	Qingdao Red Lions	27	−3	29
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	27	−14	26
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	27	−10	25
23	BIT	27	−21	24
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18