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Nantong Haimen Codion v Wuhan Three Towns II

Nantong Haimen Codion

11:30Upcoming

Wuhan Three Towns II

League Two · SUN 25 OCT · Haimen Sports Center Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nantong Haimen CodionDrawWuhan Three Towns II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Nantong Haimen Codion 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nantong Haimen Codion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nantong Haimen Codion 51%, draw 29%, Wuhan Three Towns II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Nantong Haimen Codion v Wuhan Three Towns IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nantong Haimen Codion win51%

Draw29%

Wuhan Three Towns II win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 28

VenueHaimen Sports Center Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nantong Haimen Codion

Wuhan Three Towns II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	+8	37
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nantong haimen codion winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market37%

Us51%

~~Market~~37%

We make Nantong Haimen Codion a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nantong Haimen Codion v Wuhan Three Towns II~~1.47 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 37 v 27~~12 v 20

~~The market · Nantong Haimen Codion win~~37% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nantong Haimen Codion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nantong Haimen Codion win	51%	37%	+14
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Wuhan Three Towns II win	21%	32%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	41%	41%	0
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	21%	0
Nantong Haimen Codion or draw	79%	68%	+11
Nantong Haimen Codion clean sheet	43%	–	–
Wuhan Three Towns II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.3 7.4 3.6 1 13.4 13.0 5.1 2 10.5 8.7 3.7 3 5.2 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nantong Haimen Codion down, Wuhan Three Towns II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,276 League Two matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 325 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nantong Haimen Codion at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wuhan Three Towns II away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Nantong Haimen Codion, 0.85 for Wuhan Three Towns II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~WUH 0–2 NAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION

DDWWDW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–1

WUHAN THREE TOWNS II

WDLWDW4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	28	+19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	28	+13	50
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	+14	49
4	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
5	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	−4	41
8	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	+5	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	+6	39
10	Dalian Yingbo B	28	+4	39
11	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	+8	37
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	+4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	−3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	−2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	−17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	−7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	−14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	−12	25
23	BIT	28	−21	25
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18