Langfang Glory City v Shandong Taishan II prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Langfang Glory City 0–0 Shandong Taishan II SHANDONG TAISHAN II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shandong Taishan II win~~40%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.846

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shandong Taishan II win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shandong Taishan II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 29–30–40
1′KICK-OFF Langfang Glory City v Shandong Taishan II
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Y. Yanjun · Langfang Glory City
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Qi Qiancheng · Shandong Taishan II
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Shandong Taishan II win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Langfang Glory City 0–0 Shandong Taishan II
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shandong Taishan II · On: Yan Hengye · Off: Deng Zhiwen
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shandong Taishan II · On: Hao Fubo · Off: X. Li
46′SECOND HALF Langfang Glory City 0–0 Shandong Taishan II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Shandong Taishan II win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′We said Shandong Taishan II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 22–49–28
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Wang Tianyou · Shandong Taishan II
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Ma Yinhao · Shandong Taishan II
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' A. Abdusalam · Langfang Glory City
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' K. He · Shandong Taishan II
60′PENALTY MISSED · 60' Wu Yuhang · Langfang Glory City
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Langfang Glory City · On: Jin Minyu · Off: J. Zhang
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Langfang Glory City · On: Ying Yuxiao · Off: A. Abdusalam
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Langfang Glory City · On: He Tongshuai · Off: Yin Jie
63′We said Shandong Taishan II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Langfang Glory City · On: Zhu Haoxue · Off: Xu Zhenyao
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Shandong Taishan II win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Shandong Taishan II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–66–19
77′We said Shandong Taishan II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Shandong Taishan II · On: Y. Wang · Off: Guo Xin
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Shandong Taishan II win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Shandong Taishan II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shandong Taishan II · On: Yang Yang · Off: Deng Chunze
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Shandong Taishan II · On: Zhang Xuyao · Off: K. He
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Langfang Glory City · On: Peng Jiahao · Off: Ye Daoxin
90′We said Shandong Taishan II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Langfang Glory City 0–0 Shandong Taishan II
FTLangfang Glory City 0–0 Shandong Taishan II · Shandong Taishan II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shandong Taishan II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Langfang Glory City 29%, draw 30%, Shandong Taishan II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Langfang Glory City v Shandong Taishan IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Langfang Glory City win29%

Draw30%

Shandong Taishan II win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 27

VenueLinping Sports Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Langfang Glory City

Shandong Taishan II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Langfang Glory City

Shandong Taishan II

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Langfang Glory City

Formation not confirmed

26 Xu Zhenyao

7 Gao Tianyu

23 Tang Kaiqi

3 Y. Yanjun

32 Li Da

56 Yao Xing

11 Yin Jie

22 Ye Daoxin

30 J. Zhang

18 A. Abdusalam

33 Wu Yuhang

Coach · Lei Xu

Substitutes

13 · Zhu Haoxue

14 · Guannan Qian

4 · Peng Jiahao

25 · Zhang Chao'ao

20 · Jin Minyu

6 · He Tongshuai

27 · Xu Yike

17 · Zhou Jinlong

37 · Xiang Yuheng

47 · Li Yadi

19 · Ying Yuxiao

31 · Damlinjab

Shandong Taishan II

Formation not confirmed

13 I. Ilham

55 He Bingzhuang

44 Qi Qiancheng

23 Wang Tianyou

2 Deng Zhiwen

29 Ma Yinhao

14 Guo Xin

8 K. He

40 Mei Shuaijun

18 X. Li

49 Deng Chunze

Coach · Haitao Zhang

Substitutes

50 · Fu Zhenhao

21 · Niu Bowei

16 · Yan Hengye

60 · Hao Fubo

5 · Li Junpeng

46 · Zihan Chen

22 · Zhang Xuyao

9 · Sun Ziyue

48 · Yang Yang

43 · Y. Wang

7 · Li Yuanjie

30 · Xiao Chenxi

Our number · shandong taishan ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market55%

Us40%

~~Market~~55%

We make Shandong Taishan II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Langfang Glory City v Shandong Taishan II~~1.03 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 46~~10 v 4

~~The market · Shandong Taishan II win~~55% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shandong Taishan II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Langfang Glory City win	29%	17%	+12
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Shandong Taishan II win	40%	55%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	43%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Langfang Glory City or draw	60%	45%	+15
Langfang Glory City clean sheet	29%	–	–
Shandong Taishan II clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.7 11.8 8.0 3.4 1 9.6 13.9 7.9 3.4 2 5.5 6.6 4.1 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Langfang Glory City down, Shandong Taishan II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 312 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Langfang Glory City at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Shandong Taishan II away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Langfang Glory City, 1.25 for Shandong Taishan II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SHA 0–0 LAN · SHA 3–0 LAN · LAN 0–1 SHA · LAN 2–0 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

LANGFANG GLORY CITY

WWDLDD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

SHANDONG TAISHAN II

LDDLWD0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
2	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
17	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
18	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18