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Guizhou Zhucheng v Xi'an Ronghai
Guizhou Zhucheng
Xi'an RonghaiLeague Two · SAT 24 OCT · Guiyang Olympic Sports Center
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Guizhou Zhucheng win at 45%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Guizhou Zhucheng was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–25
- 1′KICK-OFF Guizhou Zhucheng v Xi'an Ronghai
- 15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Luo Wenqi · Guizhou Zhucheng
- 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Cao Rui · Xi'an Ronghai
- 22′Nurlan Nurzat scores for Xi'an Ronghai on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 19' Guizhou Zhucheng 0–1 Xi'an Ronghai · Nurlan Nurzat
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
- 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Xi'an Ronghai win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Guizhou Zhucheng win 41%)
- 23′We said Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–59
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Nurlan Nurzat · Xi'an Ronghai
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
- 32′We said Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
- 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Guizhou Zhucheng 0–1 Xi'an Ronghai
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
- 33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Xi'an Ronghai
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 38% now
- 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Xi'an Ronghai win 62%)
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Zhang Wentao · Guizhou Zhucheng
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Cao Rui · Xi'an Ronghai
- 45′HALF-TIME Guizhou Zhucheng 0–0 Xi'an Ronghai
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Li Xi'nan · Off: Luo Wenqi
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Kong Yinquan · Off: Liao Chongjiu
- 46′SECOND HALF Guizhou Zhucheng 0–0 Xi'an Ronghai
- 47′We said Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–46–21
- 50′Liu Yujie scores for Guizhou Zhucheng on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 50′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 50′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Guizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai · Liu Yujie
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 80% now
- 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Guizhou Zhucheng win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 48%)
- 66′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
- 77′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Feng Yifan · Off: Chen Long
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Cai Zhuohao · Off: Y. Chen
- 84′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Xi'an Ronghai · On: L. He · Off: Zhang Hui
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Zheng Shengxiong · Off: Liu Yujie
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Xi'an Ronghai · On: Ling Zhongyang · Off: B. Iskandar
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Li Jinyu · Xi'an Ronghai
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Abduklim Merdanjan · Guizhou Zhucheng
- FTFULL TIME Guizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai
- FTGuizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai · Guizhou Zhucheng win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Guizhou Zhucheng are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Guizhou Zhucheng 45%, draw 31%, Xi'an Ronghai 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Guizhou Zhucheng win45%
Xi'an Ronghai win25%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00
RoundPromotion Group · matchday 28
VenueGuiyang Olympic Sports Center
Match timeline
All events
Guizhou ZhuchengMIN
Xi'an RonghaiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Guizhou Zhucheng
Xi'an Ronghai
Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two
Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Guizhou Zhucheng a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guizhou Zhucheng win | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | +3 |
| Xi'an Ronghai win | 25% | 21% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 43% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 23% | −5 |
| Guizhou Zhucheng or draw | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Guizhou Zhucheng clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Xi'an Ronghai clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2025Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug
GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG
XI'AN RONGHAI
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Port II | 28 | +19 | 50 |
| 2 | Xi'an Ronghai | 27 | +14 | 50 |
| 3 | Dalian Kewei | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan II | 27 | +13 | 47 |
| 5 | Guizhou Zhucheng | 27 | +13 | 46 |
| 6 | Shenzhen 2028 | 27 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | Langfang Glory City | 28 | −4 | 41 |
| 8 | Hubei Chufeng Heli | 27 | +6 | 39 |
| 9 | Jiangxi Liansheng | 27 | +4 | 39 |
| 10 | Nantong Haimen Codion | 27 | +8 | 37 |
| 11 | Tai'an Tiankuang | 27 | +3 | 37 |
| 12 | Xiamen Feilu | 27 | +4 | 36 |
| 13 | Dalian Yingbo B | 27 | +3 | 36 |
| 14 | Guangdong Mingtu | 27 | +4 | 35 |
| 15 | Rizhao Yuqi | 27 | −3 | 33 |
| 16 | Changchun Xidu | 27 | −10 | 31 |
| 17 | Shangyu Pterosaur | 27 | −16 | 31 |
| 18 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 27 | −6 | 30 |
| 19 | Qingdao Red Lions | 27 | −3 | 29 |
| 20 | Wuhan Three Towns II | 27 | −4 | 27 |
| 21 | Yichun Grand Tiger | 27 | −14 | 26 |
| 22 | Chengdu Rongcheng II | 27 | −10 | 25 |
| 23 | BIT | 27 | −21 | 24 |
| 24 | Shanghai Second | 27 | −20 | 18 |
Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.
Shanghai Port II
Dalian Kewei
Shandong Taishan II
Shenzhen 2028
Langfang Glory City
Hubei Chufeng Heli
Jiangxi Liansheng
Nantong Haimen Codion
Tai'an Tiankuang
Xiamen Feilu
Dalian Yingbo B
Guangdong Mingtu
Rizhao Yuqi
Changchun Xidu
Shangyu Pterosaur
Guangzhou Dandelion
Qingdao Red Lions
Wuhan Three Towns II
Yichun Grand Tiger
Chengdu Rongcheng II
BIT
Shanghai Second