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Guizhou Zhucheng v Xi'an Ronghai

Guizhou Zhucheng
1–0Full time
Xi'an Ronghai

League Two · SAT 24 OCT · Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38
Guizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Guizhou Zhucheng win45%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.461
The market’s Brier score0.361

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Guizhou Zhucheng win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Guizhou Zhucheng was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Guizhou Zhucheng v Xi'an Ronghai
  4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Luo Wenqi · Guizhou Zhucheng
  5. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Cao Rui · Xi'an Ronghai
  6. 22′Nurlan Nurzat scores for Xi'an Ronghai on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
  7. 22′⚽ GOAL · 19' Guizhou Zhucheng 0–1 Xi'an Ronghai · Nurlan Nurzat
  8. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
  9. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Xi'an Ronghai win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Guizhou Zhucheng win 41%)
  10. 23′We said Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–59
  11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  12. 27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Nurlan Nurzat · Xi'an Ronghai
  13. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
  14. 32′We said Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
  15. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Guizhou Zhucheng 0–1 Xi'an Ronghai
  16. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
  17. 33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' Xi'an Ronghai
  18. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 38% now
  19. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Xi'an Ronghai win 62%)
  20. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Zhang Wentao · Guizhou Zhucheng
  21. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Cao Rui · Xi'an Ronghai
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Guizhou Zhucheng 0–0 Xi'an Ronghai
  23. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Li Xi'nan · Off: Luo Wenqi
  24. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Kong Yinquan · Off: Liao Chongjiu
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Guizhou Zhucheng 0–0 Xi'an Ronghai
  26. 47′We said Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–46–21
  27. 50′Liu Yujie scores for Guizhou Zhucheng on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  28. 50′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  29. 50′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  30. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Guizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai · Liu Yujie
  31. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 80% now
  32. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Guizhou Zhucheng win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 48%)
  33. 66′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  34. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  35. 77′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  36. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Feng Yifan · Off: Chen Long
  37. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Cai Zhuohao · Off: Y. Chen
  38. 84′We published Guizhou Zhucheng at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  39. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Guizhou Zhucheng win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  40. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Xi'an Ronghai · On: L. He · Off: Zhang Hui
  41. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Zheng Shengxiong · Off: Liu Yujie
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Xi'an Ronghai · On: Ling Zhongyang · Off: B. Iskandar
  43. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Li Jinyu · Xi'an Ronghai
  44. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Abduklim Merdanjan · Guizhou Zhucheng
  45. FTFULL TIME Guizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai
  46. FTGuizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai · Guizhou Zhucheng win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guizhou Zhucheng are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guizhou Zhucheng 45%, draw 31%, Xi'an Ronghai 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Guizhou Zhucheng v Xi'an RonghaiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Guizhou Zhucheng win45%
Draw31%
Xi'an Ronghai win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 28

VenueGuiyang Olympic Sports Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guizhou Zhucheng

Xi'an Ronghai

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Xi'an Ronghai27+1450
5Guizhou Zhucheng27+1346

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guizhou zhucheng winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
45% The market51%
Us45%
Market51%

We make Guizhou Zhucheng a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Guizhou Zhucheng v Xi'an Ronghai1.29 – 0.89
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 46 v 505 v 2
The market · Guizhou Zhucheng win51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 08:38
Our probability · Guizhou Zhucheng win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Guizhou Zhucheng win45%51%−6
Draw31%28%+3
Xi'an Ronghai win25%21%+4
Over 2.5 goals37%43%−6
Both teams to score43%46%−3
Over 1.5 goals65%68%−3
Over 3.5 goals18%23%−5
Guizhou Zhucheng or draw75%79%−4
Guizhou Zhucheng clean sheet42%––
Xi'an Ronghai clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%
0123450 12.8 9.0 4.5 1 13.5 13.8 5.6 2 9.4 8.1 3.6 3 4.1 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Guizhou Zhucheng down, Xi'an Ronghai across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsXIA 1–0 GUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG

DLLWDL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

XI'AN RONGHAI

DLWDWW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Shanghai Port II28+1950
2Xi'an Ronghai27+1450
3Dalian Kewei27+1148
4Shandong Taishan II27+1347
5Guizhou Zhucheng27+1346
6Shenzhen 202827+941
7Langfang Glory City28−441
8Hubei Chufeng Heli27+639
9Jiangxi Liansheng27+439
10Nantong Haimen Codion27+837
11Tai'an Tiankuang27+337
12Xiamen Feilu27+436
13Dalian Yingbo B27+336
14Guangdong Mingtu27+435
15Rizhao Yuqi27−333
16Changchun Xidu27−1031
17Shangyu Pterosaur27−1631
18Guangzhou Dandelion27−630
19Qingdao Red Lions27−329
20Wuhan Three Towns II27−427
21Yichun Grand Tiger27−1426
22Chengdu Rongcheng II27−1025
23BIT27−2124
24Shanghai Second27−2018

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.