Guangzhou Dandelion v Shanghai Second prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 11:30

Guangzhou Dandelion 3–1 Shanghai Second GUANGZHOU DANDELION WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guangzhou Dandelion win~~47%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.427

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guangzhou Dandelion win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guangzhou Dandelion 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Guangzhou Dandelion v Shanghai Second
4′Little has changed for our model: Guangzhou Dandelion 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
4′⚽ GOAL · 2' Guangzhou Dandelion 1–0 Shanghai Second · Li Haoyu
5′Zhang Hao scores for Guangzhou Dandelion on 2′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
5′5′ and it is 2–0: Li Haoyu on the scoresheet for Guangzhou Dandelion. 2–0 · 91–7–2
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Guangzhou Dandelion 2–0 Shanghai Second · Zhang Hao
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Guangzhou Dandelion win: 47% at kick-off, 91% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Guangzhou Dandelion win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Guangzhou Dandelion 2–0 Shanghai Second · Li Haoyu
7′5′ and it is 2–0: Li Haoyu on the scoresheet for Guangzhou Dandelion. 2–0 · 91–7–2
8′We said Guangzhou Dandelion at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–2
9′We said Guangzhou Dandelion at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–2
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Dilyar Alamas · Guangzhou Dandelion
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Zhang Yi · Shanghai Second
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Guangzhou Dandelion 2–1 Shanghai Second · Wang Jiaqi
45′HALF-TIME Guangzhou Dandelion 2–1 Shanghai Second
46′SECOND HALF Guangzhou Dandelion 2–1 Shanghai Second
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: Y. Bian · Off: Li Haoyu
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Guangzhou Dandelion 3–1 Shanghai Second · Wang Jiaqi
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Guangzhou Dandelion 3–1 Shanghai Second · Dilyar Alamas
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: Chen Yuhao · Off: J. Lu
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Shanghai Second · On: Shi Yiyi · Off: Q. Chen
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Shi Yiyi · Shanghai Second
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: R. Shohret · Off: Zhang Hao
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shanghai Second · On: He Shaolin · Off: Wang Jiaqi
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shanghai Second · On: Xiang Ruoke · Off: Wang Jiahao
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Guangzhou Dandelion 3–1 Shanghai Second · Xu Hong
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Shanghai Second · On: Shen Chenji · Off: He Linhan
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Shanghai Second · On: Bi Haoyang · Off: K. He
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Shen Chenji · Shanghai Second
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' K. Gao · Guangzhou Dandelion
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: Diao Jiahao · Off: Fan Ruiwei
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Guangzhou Dandelion · On: L. Tan · Off: Wen Wubin
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Shi Yiyi · Shanghai Second
89′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Shi Yiyi · Shanghai Second
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' R. Shohret · Guangzhou Dandelion
FTFULL TIME Guangzhou Dandelion 3–1 Shanghai Second
FTGuangzhou Dandelion 3–1 Shanghai Second · Guangzhou Dandelion win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

Guangzhou Dandelion win47%

Draw28%

Shanghai Second win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 09:00

VenueZengcheng Stadium

Line-ups

Guangzhou Dandelion

Shanghai Second

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Guangzhou Dandelion

Shanghai Second

6Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Guangzhou Dandelion

Formation not confirmed

51 Fan Mengtong

16 K. Gao

5 Nihmat Nihat

17 Li Zhuoxuan

20 Fan Ruiwei

47 Li Haoyu

48 Dilyar Alamas

15 Wen Wubin

26 Xu Hong

42 Zhang Hao

9 J. Lu

Coach · Kenichi Uemura

Substitutes

1 · Ci Henglong

54 · Nasirulla Hesenjan

3 · Zhang Ran

27 · Murathan Ares

7 · Chen Yuhao

2 · Diao Jiahao

6 · Liang Junheng

10 · R. Shohret

8 · M. Muhta

21 · Y. Bian

11 · Z. Liang

45 · L. Tan

Shanghai Second

Formation not confirmed

1 Zhou Zhengkai

19 Q. Chen

4 Li Guihao

40 Aidi

14 Wang Jiahao

15 He Linhan

11 Zhang Yi

6 Xu Lei

24 Yu Yanfeng

20 K. He

27 Wang Jiaqi

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Guo Tong

23 · Wang Junqiang

3 · B. He

5 · Bi Haoyang

36 · Xiang Ruoke

35 · Yang Yi

7 · Shen Chenji

29 · Shi Yiyi

25 · Liu Wenjie

9 · He Shaolin

Our number · guangzhou dandelion winFirst published 12 Oct 08:47 · updated 12 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market49%

Us47%

~~Market~~49%

We make Guangzhou Dandelion a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guangzhou dandelion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guangzhou Dandelion win	47%	49%	−3
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Shanghai Second win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	42%	+2
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	0
Guangzhou Dandelion or draw	75%	78%	−3
Guangzhou Dandelion clean sheet	38%	–	–
Shanghai Second clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.0 7.8 4.3 1 11.7 13.1 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 8.8 4.3 3 4.5 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guangzhou Dandelion down, Shanghai Second across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 League Two matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 306 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Guangzhou Dandelion at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Shanghai Second away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Guangzhou Dandelion, 0.99 for Shanghai Second. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meeting of these two in League Two since 2022 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

GUANGZHOU DANDELION

DWDLLD0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

SHANGHAI SECOND

LLDLDD1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
3	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
14	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17