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Guangdong Mingtu v Changchun Xidu

Guangdong Mingtu

11:30Upcoming

Changchun Xidu

League Two · SUN 25 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Guangdong MingtuDrawChangchun Xidu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Guangdong Mingtu 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guangdong Mingtu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guangdong Mingtu 40%, draw 34%, Changchun Xidu 26%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Guangdong Mingtu v Changchun XiduBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Guangdong Mingtu win40%

Draw34%

Changchun Xidu win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guangdong Mingtu

Changchun Xidu

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
17	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guangdong mingtu winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market48%

Us40%

~~Market~~48%

We make Guangdong Mingtu a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guangdong Mingtu v Changchun Xidu~~1.06 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 35 v 31~~14 v 17

~~The market · Guangdong Mingtu win~~48% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guangdong Mingtu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guangdong Mingtu win	40%	48%	−8
Draw	34%	29%	+5
Changchun Xidu win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	28%	41%	−13
Both teams to score	36%	46%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	56%	66%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	12%	21%	−9
Guangdong Mingtu or draw	74%	77%	−3
Guangdong Mingtu clean sheet	46%	–	–
Changchun Xidu clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.4%

0123450 17.4 11.3 4.9 1 15.6 13.9 5.0 2 8.8 6.8 2.7 3 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guangdong Mingtu down, Changchun Xidu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,282 League Two matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 331 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guangdong Mingtu at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Changchun Xidu away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Guangdong Mingtu, 0.78 for Changchun Xidu. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 22 Aug

GUANGDONG MINGTU

LWDDWD0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

CHANGCHUN XIDU

WWDDWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	28	+19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	28	+13	50
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	+14	49
4	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
5	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	−4	41
8	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	+5	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	+6	39
10	Dalian Yingbo B	28	+4	39
11	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	+8	37
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	+4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	−3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	−2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	27	−10	31
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	−17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	−7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	−14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	−12	25
23	BIT	28	−21	25
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18