Dalian Yingbo B v Yichun Grand Tiger prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 11:34

Dalian Yingbo B 4–0 Yichun Grand Tiger DALIAN YINGBO B WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dalian Yingbo B win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.470

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.526

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalian Yingbo B win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dalian Yingbo B 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–34–22
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Yingbo B v Yichun Grand Tiger
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Dalian Yingbo B win 37%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dalian Yingbo B win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Yingbo B 0–0 Yichun Grand Tiger
46′We said Dalian Yingbo B at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–50–18
46′SECOND HALF Dalian Yingbo B 0–0 Yichun Grand Tiger
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dalian Yingbo B · On: L. Xiao · Off: Hu Mingyu
53′We said Dalian Yingbo B at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Liu Yi · Dalian Yingbo B
59′Dalian Yingbo B ahead on 58′ through Sun Kangbo. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Dalian Yingbo B 1–0 Yichun Grand Tiger · Sun Kangbo
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Dalian Yingbo B win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Dalian Yingbo B win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
60′We said Dalian Yingbo B at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
60′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 85–13–2
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dalian Yingbo B · On: Obuqasym Muzapar · Off: Nie Xin Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Ouyang Chengzhuo · Off: Wei Zhenghong
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: X. Wang · Off: J. He
68′K. Jing scores for Dalian Yingbo B on 67′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′We said Dalian Yingbo B at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Dalian Yingbo B 2–0 Yichun Grand Tiger · K. Jing
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Zhang Zhijie · Off: Y. Lu
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Dalian Yingbo B win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
76′We said Dalian Yingbo B at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
78′77′: Ibrahim Imran on the scoresheet for Dalian Yingbo B, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dalian Yingbo B 3–0 Yichun Grand Tiger · Ibrahim Imran
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dalian Yingbo B · On: L. Jincheng · Off: Wang Shixin
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dalian Yingbo B · On: Y. Zhu · Off: Ibrahim Imran
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Yichun Grand Tiger · On: Lu Shihao · Off: Wu Yuchen
84′Dalian Yingbo B ahead on 84′ through Y. Zhu. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dalian Yingbo B · On: Wang Zhenghao · Off: Liu Yi
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Dalian Yingbo B 4–0 Yichun Grand Tiger · Y. Zhu
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' X. Wang · Yichun Grand Tiger
FTFULL TIME Dalian Yingbo B 4–0 Yichun Grand Tiger
FTDalian Yingbo B 4–0 Yichun Grand Tiger · Dalian Yingbo B win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dalian Yingbo B are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dalian Yingbo B 44%, draw 34%, Yichun Grand Tiger 22%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Dalian Yingbo B v Yichun Grand TigerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dalian Yingbo B win44%

Draw34%

Yichun Grand Tiger win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueDalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Line-ups

Dalian Yingbo B

Yichun Grand Tiger

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dalian Yingbo B

Yichun Grand Tiger

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dalian Yingbo B

Formation not confirmed

19 Xiao Zhiren

12 Nie Xin

5 Peng Shunjie

57 Li Gecan

28 Sun Kangbo

44 T. Memet

46 Wang Shixin

45 Liu Yi

60 Ibrahim Imran

40 Hu Mingyu

29 K. Jing

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · X. Ding

49 · Wu Xinze

34 · Mo Weihao

55 · Wang Shicheng

10 · Obuqasym Muzapar

37 · C. Zhang

25 · L. Jincheng

18 · Wang Zhenghao

9 · Wang Shengbo

59 · L. Xiao

8 · S. Zhang

17 · Y. Zhu

Yichun Grand Tiger

Formation not confirmed

12 Chen Zhao

8 Han Tianlin

19 Yao Xilong

57 J. He

6 Zhao Wenzhe

17 Wei Zhenghong

36 Hua Mingcan

16 Wu Yuchen

7 Y. Lu

10 Ruan Sai

9 Li Jiaheng

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · H. Zhang

58 · Y. Liu

11 · Lu Shihao

22 · I. Abdugheni

50 · Q. Zhuang

25 · X. Wang

18 · Lu Jiabin

43 · Zhang Zhijie

39 · Ouyang Chengzhuo

Our number · dalian yingbo b winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Dalian Yingbo B a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dalian Yingbo B v Yichun Grand Tiger~~1.13 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 33 v 26~~14 v 21

~~The market · Dalian Yingbo B win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dalian Yingbo B win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Yingbo B win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Yichun Grand Tiger win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Both teams to score	35%	43%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	12%	18%	−6
Dalian Yingbo B or draw	78%	74%	+4
Dalian Yingbo B clean sheet	50%	–	–
Yichun Grand Tiger clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.7%

0123450 17.7 10.1 4.0 1 16.9 13.5 4.4 2 10.1 6.9 2.4 3 3.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Yingbo B down, Yichun Grand Tiger across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dalian Yingbo B at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yichun Grand Tiger away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Dalian Yingbo B, 0.70 for Yichun Grand Tiger. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~YIC 1–0 DAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

DALIAN YINGBO B

WLLWDD1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

YICHUN GRAND TIGER

DWWLDL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	27	+20	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
9	Langfang Glory City	27	−5	38
10	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
11	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
17	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
18	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
23	BIT	27	−21	24
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18