Dalian Yingbo B v Hubei Chufeng Heli prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

Dalian Yingbo B 1–1 Hubei Chufeng Heli DALIAN YINGBO B WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dalian Yingbo B win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalian Yingbo B win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dalian Yingbo B 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Yingbo B v Hubei Chufeng Heli
2′Little has changed for our model: Dalian Yingbo B 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Liu Mingyu · Hubei Chufeng Heli
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Yingbo B 0–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli
46′SECOND HALF Dalian Yingbo B 0–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dalian Yingbo B · On: Obuqasym Muzapar · Off: C. Zhang
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: Li Yubing · Off: S. Hongxiang
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: Wen Jialong · Off: Zhang Chengji
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: B. Li · Off: W. Sun
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dalian Yingbo B 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli · Nie Xin
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: Guo Yi · Off: X. Li
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: F. Lin · Off: D. Qu
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Dalian Yingbo B · On: Wang Shixin · Off: Liu Yi Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dalian Yingbo B · On: J. Zeng · Off: K. Jing
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Dalian Yingbo B 1–1 Hubei Chufeng Heli · B. Li
FTFULL TIME Dalian Yingbo B 1–1 Hubei Chufeng Heli
FTDalian Yingbo B 1–1 Hubei Chufeng Heli · Dalian Yingbo B win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dalian Yingbo B win44%

Draw30%

Hubei Chufeng Heli win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

VenueDalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Line-ups

Dalian Yingbo B

Hubei Chufeng Heli

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dalian Yingbo B

Hubei Chufeng Heli

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dalian Yingbo B

Formation not confirmed

19 Xiao Zhiren

44 T. Memet

57 Li Gecan

5 Peng Shunjie

12 Nie Xin

37 C. Zhang

25 L. Jincheng

45 Liu Yi

60 Ibrahim Imran

40 Hu Mingyu

29 K. Jing

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · X. Ding

49 · Wu Xinze

56 · J. Zeng

11 · Mao Wuda

55 · Wang Shicheng

46 · Wang Shixin

10 · Obuqasym Muzapar

18 · Wang Zhenghao

51 · Yang Mingjie

9 · Wang Shengbo

8 · S. Zhang

17 · Y. Zhu

Hubei Chufeng Heli

Formation not confirmed

1 Meng Derui

55 Liu Mingyu

20 Nie Aoshuang

4 Sun Tianyu

3 Tang Xin

13 Pan Jinglue

57 X. Li

33 S. Hongxiang

23 W. Sun

19 D. Qu

14 Zhang Chengji

Coach · Houliang Wan

Substitutes

16 · Wei Deliang

22 · Xiang Yufei

21 · B. Li

41 · Yu Jingcheng

30 · Li Yubing

7 · Guo Yi

6 · Du Xiaoyu

18 · Zhu Shiqi

10 · Wen Jialong

12 · F. Lin

Our number · dalian yingbo b winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Dalian Yingbo B a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dalian yingbo b win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Yingbo B win	44%	44%	0
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Hubei Chufeng Heli win	27%	25%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Dalian Yingbo B or draw	73%	75%	−2
Dalian Yingbo B clean sheet	39%	–	–
Hubei Chufeng Heli clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.8 9.3 4.8 1 12.8 13.5 6.0 2 8.8 8.2 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Yingbo B down, Hubei Chufeng Heli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 League Two matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.7% of games this season, across 300 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dalian Yingbo B at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hubei Chufeng Heli away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Dalian Yingbo B, 0.95 for Hubei Chufeng Heli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

DALIAN YINGBO B

DWLLWD0–0 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

HUBEI CHUFENG HELI

LLWLDW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	25	+19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	+14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	+13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	+11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	+7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	+6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	−1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	−2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	+3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	−16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	−6	23
23	BIT	25	−21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17