Dalian Kewei v Langfang Glory City prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 11:30

Dalian Kewei 2–2 Langfang Glory City DALIAN KEWEI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dalian Kewei win~~45%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.007

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalian Kewei win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Kewei v Langfang Glory City
2′Little has changed for our model: Dalian Kewei 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–31–22
4′Little has changed for our model: Dalian Kewei 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–32–22
18′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Dalian Kewei
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Dilshat Ablimit · Dalian Kewei
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Li Da · Langfang Glory City
42′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Dalian Kewei · On: Zhang Dachi · Off: Ai Chuwei
44′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Dalian Kewei · On: Li Yang · Off: Zhang Zhen
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Dalian Kewei 0–1 Langfang Glory City · Li Yang
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Kewei 0–1 Langfang Glory City
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dalian Kewei · On: Zhang Xianbing · Off: Yu Zeyuan
46′SECOND HALF Dalian Kewei 0–1 Langfang Glory City
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Dalian Kewei 1–1 Langfang Glory City · Ge Yuxiang
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' J. Zhang · Langfang Glory City
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Dalian Kewei · On: Zhang Huajun · Off: Ge Yuxiang
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Langfang Glory City · On: A. Abdusalam · Off: He Tongshuai
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Langfang Glory City · On: Ying Yuxiao · Off: Yin Jie Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Gao Tianyu · Langfang Glory City
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Peyzullah Bahtiyar · Dalian Kewei
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dalian Kewei · On: Liu Zhizhi · Off: Yao Xuchen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Langfang Glory City · On: Jin Minyu · Off: J. Zhang
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Langfang Glory City · On: Damlinjab · Off: Yin Jie
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Dalian Kewei 2–1 Langfang Glory City · Liu Zhizhi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' A. Abdusalam · Langfang Glory City
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Langfang Glory City · On: Wu Yuhang · Off: Li Da
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Dalian Kewei 2–2 Langfang Glory City · Jin Minyu
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Yao Xing · Langfang Glory City
90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Dalian Kewei · On: Chen Yongze · Off: Ablimit Dilshat Corrected
FTFULL TIME Dalian Kewei 2–2 Langfang Glory City
FTDalian Kewei 2–2 Langfang Glory City · Dalian Kewei win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

Dalian Kewei win45%

Draw33%

Langfang Glory City win22%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 09:00

VenueDalian Football Youth Training Base Stadium

Line-ups

Dalian Kewei

Langfang Glory City

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dalian Kewei

Langfang Glory City

5Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dalian Kewei

Formation not confirmed

1 Zhang Chong

2 Zhang Zhen

5 Fu Yuncheng

35 Wang Peng

14 Li Zhen

18 Yao Xuchen

31 Peyzullah Bahtiyar

30 Yu Zeyuan

8 Ablimit Dilshat

11 Ge Yuxiang

36 Ai Chuwei

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Yan Xiaoyu

6 · Liu Xiaolong

3 · Yu Yanhao

37 · Huang Jianming

19 · Zhang Huajun

9 · Liu Zhizhi

26 · C. Lu

23 · Liu Hongchen

27 · Li Yang

20 · Zhang Xianbing

39 · Zhang Dachi

29 · Chen Yongze

Langfang Glory City

Formation not confirmed

26 Xu Zhenyao

23 Tang Kaiqi

3 Y. Yanjun

32 Li Da

7 Gao Tianyu

22 Ye Daoxin

6 He Tongshuai

56 Yao Xing

30 J. Zhang

11 Yin Jie

37 Xiang Yuheng

Coach · Lei Xu

Substitutes

14 · Guannan Qian

4 · Peng Jiahao

25 · Zhang Chao'ao

20 · Jin Minyu

33 · Wu Yuhang

18 · A. Abdusalam

27 · Xu Yike

47 · Li Yadi

19 · Ying Yuxiao

10 · X. Huang

31 · Damlinjab

Our number · dalian kewei winFirst published 12 Oct 08:47 · updated 12 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market64%

Us45%

~~Market~~64%

We make Dalian Kewei a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dalian kewei win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Kewei win	45%	64%	−19
Draw	33%	24%	+9
Langfang Glory City win	22%	12%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	29%	44%	−15
Both teams to score	35%	39%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	56%	67%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	12%	25%	−13
Dalian Kewei or draw	78%	88%	−10
Dalian Kewei clean sheet	50%	–	–
Langfang Glory City clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%

0123450 16.8 10.0 3.9 1 16.8 13.3 4.4 2 10.3 7.1 2.6 3 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Kewei down, Langfang Glory City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,257 League Two matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 306 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dalian Kewei at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Langfang Glory City away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Dalian Kewei, 0.71 for Langfang Glory City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meeting of these two in League Two since 2022 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in League Two

DALIAN KEWEI

DWLWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

LANGFANG GLORY CITY

WWWDLD4–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
3	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	+12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	+10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	+5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	+5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	−5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
14	Xiamen Feilu	25	+1	32
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	−8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	−9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	−12	25
21	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	25	−18	17