Dalian Kewei v Guizhou Zhucheng prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:32

Dalian Kewei 2–1 Guizhou Zhucheng DALIAN KEWEI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dalian Kewei win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.527

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dalian Kewei win at 38%.
1′1′: Zhang Dachi on the scoresheet for Dalian Kewei, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
1′KICK-OFF Dalian Kewei v Guizhou Zhucheng
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Dalian Kewei 1–0 Guizhou Zhucheng · Zhang Dachi
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Dalian Kewei win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
2′We said Dalian Kewei at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
13′12′: Zhang Dachi on the scoresheet for Dalian Kewei. 1–0 · 73–19–9
13′We said Dalian Kewei at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Dalian Kewei 2–0 Guizhou Zhucheng · Zhang Dachi (assist Zhang Xianbing)
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Dalian Kewei win: 38% at kick-off, 91% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Peyzullah Bahtiyar · Dalian Kewei
22′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Chen Long · Off: Feng Yifan
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Zhang Dachi · Dalian Kewei
39′We said Dalian Kewei at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Dalian Kewei 2–0 Guizhou Zhucheng
45′SECOND HALF Dalian Kewei 2–0 Guizhou Zhucheng
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Liao Chongjiu · Off: Zheng Shengxiong
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dalian Kewei · On: Ge Yuxiang · Off: Liu Zhizhi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Luo Wenqi · Off: Z. Jinghang
48′Liu Yujie scores for Guizhou Zhucheng on 48′. 2–0 · 96–4–1
49′We said Dalian Kewei at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Dalian Kewei 2–1 Guizhou Zhucheng · Liu Yujie (assist Kong Yinquan)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Dalian Kewei win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
50′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–4
54′We said Dalian Kewei at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Li Yang · Dalian Kewei
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Cai Zhuohao · Off: Hu Mingtian
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dalian Kewei · On: Li Wuze · Off: Zhang Zhen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dalian Kewei · On: Zhang Huajun · Off: Yao Xuchen
67′We said Dalian Kewei at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guizhou Zhucheng · On: Xu Jiajun · Off: Wang Haozhi
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dalian Kewei win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Kong Yinquan · Guizhou Zhucheng
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dalian Kewei · On: C. Lu · Off: Li Zhen
90′2–1 at the end. Our 38% on Dalian Kewei comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Dalian Kewei win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Dalian Kewei · On: Yu Yanhao · Off: Zhang Dachi
FTFULL TIME Dalian Kewei 2–1 Guizhou Zhucheng
FTDalian Kewei 2–1 Guizhou Zhucheng · Dalian Kewei win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dalian Kewei are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dalian Kewei 38%, draw 33%, Guizhou Zhucheng 28%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Dalian Kewei v Guizhou ZhuchengBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dalian Kewei win38%

Draw33%

Guizhou Zhucheng win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 27

VenueDalian Football Youth Training Base Stadium

Line-ups

Dalian Kewei

Guizhou Zhucheng

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dalian Kewei

Guizhou Zhucheng

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	+10	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dalian Kewei

Formation not confirmed

1 Zhang Chong

2 Zhang Zhen

35 Wang Peng

5 Fu Yuncheng

14 Li Zhen

27 Li Yang

18 Yao Xuchen

31 Peyzullah Bahtiyar

9 Liu Zhizhi

20 Zhang Xianbing

39 Zhang Dachi

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Yan Xiaoyu

6 · Liu Xiaolong

17 · Shi Kaiyu

25 · Fang Peicheng

12 · Li Wuze

3 · Yu Yanhao

37 · Huang Jianming

19 · Zhang Huajun

30 · Yu Zeyuan

26 · C. Lu

23 · Liu Hongchen

11 · Ge Yuxiang

Guizhou Zhucheng

Formation not confirmed

23 J. Chen

33 Feng Yifan

35 Lu Wentao

27 Zhang Wentao

21 Hu Mingtian

8 Sun Enming

32 Wang Haozhi

41 Z. Jinghang

22 Kong Yinquan

17 Zheng Shengxiong

7 Liu Yujie

Coach · Oscar Cespedes

Substitutes

31 · H. Yan

42 · Luo Wenqi

44 · Cai Zhuohao

16 · Lai Yanglong

29 · Xu Jiajun

10 · Chen Chenzhenyang

20 · Z. Zhou

57 · Li Xi'nan

24 · Wu Zhongcan

28 · Chen Long

11 · Liao Chongjiu

37 · Yang Youxian

Our number · dalian kewei winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Dalian Kewei a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dalian Kewei v Guizhou Zhucheng~~1.06 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 45 v 46~~5 v 3

~~The market · Dalian Kewei win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dalian Kewei win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dalian Kewei win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	33%	32%	+1
Guizhou Zhucheng win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	41%	−11
Both teams to score	38%	48%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	58%	65%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	13%	23%	−10
Dalian Kewei or draw	72%	73%	−1
Dalian Kewei clean sheet	43%	–	–
Guizhou Zhucheng clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 11.5 5.5 1 14.3 14.1 5.6 2 8.2 6.9 3.0 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dalian Kewei down, Guizhou Zhucheng across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 312 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dalian Kewei at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guizhou Zhucheng away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Dalian Kewei, 0.87 for Guizhou Zhucheng. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GUI 0–1 DAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

DALIAN KEWEI

WLWDWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG

DDLLWD0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Xi'an Ronghai	26	+13	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	+10	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	−6	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	26	−20	17