Chengdu Rongcheng II v Qingdao Red Lions prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 15:16

Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions CHENGDU RONGCHENG II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chengdu Rongcheng II win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.719

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chengdu Rongcheng II win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chengdu Rongcheng II was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Chengdu Rongcheng II v Qingdao Red Lions
13′🟨 YELLOW · 15' G. Wang · Qingdao Red Lions
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–0 Qingdao Red Lions
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–0 Qingdao Red Lions · Shuai Weihao
39′Chengdu Rongcheng II ahead on 38′ through Shuai Weihao. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–5
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Chengdu Rongcheng II win: 38% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–0 Qingdao Red Lions
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Xu Jiashi · Off: Mehmut Ferdanwus
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Osmanjan Abduhelil · Off: You Wenjie
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Li Mingfan · Off: G. Wang
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Wang Ziteng · Chengdu Rongcheng II
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Zhou Jianyi · Off: Chen Zitong
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' S. Luo · Chengdu Rongcheng II
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Yang Minjie · Qingdao Red Lions
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Qingdao Red Lions · On: Chen Shihao · Off: Sun Weijia
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Yao Younan · Off: S. Luo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Huang Junjie · Off: Zhang Zili
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Yao Zixuan · Off: Li Moyu
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions · Shuai Weihao
93′⚽ GOAL · 92' Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions · X. Huang (assist Xu Jiashi)
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' X. Huang · Qingdao Red Lions
FTFULL TIME Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions
FTChengdu Rongcheng II 1–1 Qingdao Red Lions · Chengdu Rongcheng II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Chengdu Rongcheng II win38%

Draw33%

Qingdao Red Lions win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 12:35

VenueShuangliu Sports Centre

Line-ups

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Qingdao Red Lions

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Qingdao Red Lions

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Formation not confirmed

55 Peng Haochen

59 Wang Ziteng

15 Liu Zhetao

27 Wang Yueheng

31 Qin Wanzhun

45 Qeyser Ezimet

48 Li Moyu

23 Li Wenle

44 S. Luo

7 Zhang Zili

52 Shuai Weihao

Coach · Yi Fan

Substitutes

60 · Tang Zicheng

37 · Du Yijinwu

16 · Yao Younan

29 · Yao Zixuan

54 · H. Linfei

43 · Zhang Kongzhi

46 · Wu Jiayi

11 · Chen Xiaohan

6 · Xu Zhenghang

41 · Huang Junjie

56 · Yi Yuchong

34 · J. Yang

Qingdao Red Lions

Formation not confirmed

24 He Zhizhe

35 Yang Minjie

6 E. Emet

55 X. Huang

4 Huang Yuxuan

20 Mehmut Ferdanwus

21 Chen Zitong

32 You Wenjie

33 Sun Weijia

22 G. Wang

17 Chen Jiaqi

Coach · Yang Zhang

Substitutes

23 · D. Zhang

28 · Sun Xu

13 · Yao Zhiyu

9 · Chen Shihao

14 · Wen Zhengkuan

10 · Osmanjan Abduhelil

8 · Zhou Jianyi

7 · Li Mingfan

18 · Xu Jiashi

26 · Mei Jingxuan

39 · Z. Li

11 · Deng Jiajie

Our number · chengdu rongcheng ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Chengdu Rongcheng II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chengdu rongcheng ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chengdu Rongcheng II win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	33%	31%	+2
Qingdao Red Lions win	29%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Both teams to score	39%	46%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	59%	63%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	14%	21%	−7
Chengdu Rongcheng II or draw	71%	74%	−3
Chengdu Rongcheng II clean sheet	42%	–	–
Qingdao Red Lions clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.7 11.5 5.6 1 14.0 14.0 5.8 2 8.0 6.9 3.1 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chengdu Rongcheng II down, Qingdao Red Lions across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,262 League Two matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 311 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Chengdu Rongcheng II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Qingdao Red Lions away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Chengdu Rongcheng II, 0.89 for Qingdao Red Lions. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in League Two since 2022. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in League Two

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II

WDLDDL3–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

QINGDAO RED LIONS

WDLWLL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	26	+20	49
2	Xi'an Ronghai	26	+13	47
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	26	+14	46
4	Shandong Taishan II	26	+13	46
5	Dalian Kewei	26	+10	45
6	Shenzhen 2028	26	+10	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	26	+4	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	26	+5	37
10	Langfang Glory City	26	−5	37
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
12	Guangdong Mingtu	26	+4	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	26	−3	32
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	26	−16	30
17	Guangzhou Dandelion	26	−6	29
18	Qingdao Red Lions	25	0	28
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
21	Wuhan Three Towns II	26	−6	24
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	−8	24
23	BIT	26	−21	23
24	Shanghai Second	26	−20	17