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Chengdu Rongcheng II v Nantong Haimen Codion

Chengdu Rongcheng II
1–3Full time
Nantong Haimen Codion

League Two · SUN 18 OCT · Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23
Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–3 Nantong Haimen Codion NANTONG HAIMEN CODION WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nantong Haimen Codion win36%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.623
The market’s Brier score0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nantong Haimen Codion win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nantong Haimen Codion 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chengdu Rongcheng II v Nantong Haimen Codion
  4. 15′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Chengdu Rongcheng II 0–1 Nantong Haimen Codion
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 36% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 16′15′: Chen Weijing on the scoresheet for Nantong Haimen Codion, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–67
  8. 18′Nantong Haimen Codion ahead on 18′ through Wang Bowen. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  9. 18′Nantong Haimen Codion ahead on 17′ through Wang Bowen. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  10. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Chengdu Rongcheng II 0–2 Nantong Haimen Codion · Wang Bowen
  11. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 36% at kick-off, 88% now
  12. 19′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
  13. 25′Li Moyu scores for Chengdu Rongcheng II on 25′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–21–68
  14. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–2 Nantong Haimen Codion · Li Moyu (penalty)
  15. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 36% at kick-off, 68% now
  16. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 10–21–69
  17. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Liu Zhetao · Chengdu Rongcheng II
  18. 34′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
  19. 37′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  20. 37′37′: Wang Bowen on the scoresheet for Nantong Haimen Codion, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  21. 37′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  22. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–3 Nantong Haimen Codion
  23. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
  24. 41′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Yi Yuchong · Off: Huang Zhenghan
  25. 45′HALF-TIME Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–3 Nantong Haimen Codion
  26. 45′SECOND HALF Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–3 Nantong Haimen Codion
  27. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Li Wenle · Chengdu Rongcheng II
  28. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Qin Wanzhun · Chengdu Rongcheng II
  29. 54′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
  30. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Nantong Haimen Codion win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
  31. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Wang Bowen · Nantong Haimen Codion
  32. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Cao Yuetao · Off: Yan Ge
  33. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Pei Guoguang · Off: Wang Bowen
  34. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Wang Yueheng · Chengdu Rongcheng II
  35. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Cao Yuetao · Nantong Haimen Codion
  36. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Yao Zixuan · Off: Zhang Zili
  37. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Zhang Kongzhi · Off: Liu Zhetao
  38. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Xu Yuese · Off: Cheng Xin
  39. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Ding Jianhua · Off: Zheng Lei
  40. 82′We said Nantong Haimen Codion at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Chen Siliang · Off: S. Luo
  42. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chengdu Rongcheng II · On: Du Yijinwu · Off: Qin Wanzhun
  43. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nantong Haimen Codion · On: Sun Qinan · Off: Cheng Yi
  44. FTFULL TIME Chengdu Rongcheng II 1–3 Nantong Haimen Codion
  45. FTChengdu Rongcheng II 1–3 Nantong Haimen Codion · Nantong Haimen Codion win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Nantong Haimen Codion just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chengdu Rongcheng II 34%, draw 30%, Nantong Haimen Codion 36%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Chengdu Rongcheng II v Nantong Haimen CodionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chengdu Rongcheng II win34%
Draw30%
Nantong Haimen Codion win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:35

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueChengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Line-ups

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Nantong Haimen Codion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Nantong Haimen Codion

5Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Nantong Haimen Codion26+634
22Chengdu Rongcheng II26−825

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chengdu Rongcheng II

Formation not confirmed

55 Peng Haochen

31 Qin Wanzhun

42 J. Xiong

15 Liu Zhetao

27 Wang Yueheng

23 Li Wenle

7 Zhang Zili

45 Qeyser Ezimet

44 S. Luo

38 Huang Zhenghan

48 Li Moyu

Coach · Yi Fan

Substitutes

60 · Tang Zicheng

53 · Chen Siliang

37 · Du Yijinwu

16 · Yao Younan

29 · Yao Zixuan

54 · H. Linfei

43 · Zhang Kongzhi

46 · Wu Jiayi

11 · Chen Xiaohan

41 · Huang Junjie

56 · Yi Yuchong

34 · J. Yang

Nantong Haimen Codion

Formation not confirmed

22 Xie Gongbo

46 Xu Kunxing

23 Yu Hang

17 Bai Xianyi

54 Wang Yubo

53 Cheng Yi

21 Chen Weijing

19 Zheng Lei

8 Cheng Xin

16 Wang Bowen

9 Yan Ge

Coach · Baoan Cui

Substitutes

14 · Zhang Zixuan

11 · Pei Guoguang

27 · Luo Gaoju

39 · Cao Yuetao

12 · Sun Qinan

41 · Ding Jianhua

47 · Cai Wenxuan

7 · Xu Yuese

42 · Wu Yucheng

51 · Zhou Xianfeng

57 · Fan Yucheng

Our number · nantong haimen codion winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
36% The market40%
Us36%
Market40%

We make Nantong Haimen Codion a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chengdu Rongcheng II v Nantong Haimen Codion1.16 – 1.19
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 16 AugW0 D4 L2 · W2 D4 L0
Table places · points 25 v 3422 v 13
The market · Nantong Haimen Codion win40% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0018 OCT 12:11
Our probability · Nantong Haimen Codion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chengdu Rongcheng II win34%30%+4
Draw30%30%0
Nantong Haimen Codion win36%40%−4
Over 2.5 goals42%40%+2
Both teams to score48%47%+1
Over 1.5 goals69%65%+4
Over 3.5 goals21%21%0
Chengdu Rongcheng II or draw64%60%+4
Chengdu Rongcheng II clean sheet31%––
Nantong Haimen Codion clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%
0123450 11.1 10.2 6.7 2.7 1 9.9 14.0 7.6 3.1 2 6.4 7.4 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chengdu Rongcheng II down, Nantong Haimen Codion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsNAN 1–1 CHE · NAN 0–0 CHE · CHE 2–1 NAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 16 Aug

CHENGDU RONGCHENG II

DLDDLD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION

DDDWWD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Shanghai Port II27+2050
2Xi'an Ronghai27+1450
3Dalian Kewei27+1148
4Shandong Taishan II27+1347
5Guizhou Zhucheng27+1346
6Shenzhen 202827+941
7Hubei Chufeng Heli27+639
8Jiangxi Liansheng27+439
9Langfang Glory City27−538
10Tai'an Tiankuang27+337
11Dalian Yingbo B27+336
12Guangdong Mingtu27+435
13Nantong Haimen Codion26+634
14Xiamen Feilu26+133
15Rizhao Yuqi27−333
16Changchun Xidu27−1031
17Shangyu Pterosaur27−1631
18Guangzhou Dandelion27−630
19Qingdao Red Lions26029
20Wuhan Three Towns II27−427
21Yichun Grand Tiger27−1426
22Chengdu Rongcheng II26−825
23BIT27−2124
24Shanghai Second27−2018

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.