Changchun Xidu v Hubei Chufeng Heli prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 10:33

Changchun Xidu 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli CHANGCHUN XIDU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Changchun Xidu win~~37%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.600

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Changchun Xidu win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Changchun Xidu v Hubei Chufeng Heli
2′Much as we predicted: Changchun Xidu was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
5′5′: Wang Song on the scoresheet for Changchun Xidu, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Changchun Xidu 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli · Wang Song
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Changchun Xidu win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
6′4′: Wang Song on the scoresheet for Changchun Xidu, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
6′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–12
12′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: S. Hongxiang · Off: Tang Xin
13′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' X. Li · Hubei Chufeng Heli
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Geng Xianglong · Changchun Xidu
45′HALF-TIME Changchun Xidu 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli
46′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
46′SECOND HALF Changchun Xidu 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Changchun Xidu · On: Liang Huan · Off: Yang Jingfan
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: Y. Wang · Off: D. Qu
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: F. Lin · Off: X. Li
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Changchun Xidu win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
61′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hubei Chufeng Heli · On: Yu Jingcheng · Off: S. Hongxiang
72′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Changchun Xidu · On: Liu Yang · Off: Huang Wenzhuo
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Changchun Xidu win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Changchun Xidu · On: He Youzu · Off: Wang Song
79′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We published Changchun Xidu at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Changchun Xidu win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Yu Jingcheng · Hubei Chufeng Heli
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Nie Aoshuang · Hubei Chufeng Heli
FTFULL TIME Changchun Xidu 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli
FTChangchun Xidu 1–0 Hubei Chufeng Heli · Changchun Xidu win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Changchun Xidu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Changchun Xidu 37%, draw 32%, Hubei Chufeng Heli 31%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Changchun Xidu v Hubei Chufeng HeliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Changchun Xidu win37%

Draw32%

Hubei Chufeng Heli win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 08:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueYatai Training Base Stadium

Line-ups

Changchun Xidu

Hubei Chufeng Heli

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Changchun Xidu

Hubei Chufeng Heli

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chinese League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Changchun Xidu

Formation not confirmed

17 H. Hu

5 Yang Lei

58 Kadir Aysan

15 Geng Xianglong

3 Yangyang Ma

8 Z. Yu

10 Huang Wenzhuo

11 Sun Fei

2 Wang Song

29 Memet Nuryasin

45 Yang Jingfan

Coach · Zoran Jankovic

Substitutes

22 · Yang Xinyang

44 · Chen Quanjiang

21 · H. Wang

13 · Wang Tianci

24 · Liu Jiahao

6 · Liu Yang

37 · Li Jiaqi

18 · Zhong Weihong

23 · Ye-Yang Runyi

14 · He Youzu

39 · Liang Huan

49 · Feng Zijun

Hubei Chufeng Heli

Formation not confirmed

22 Xiang Yufei

13 Pan Jinglue

20 Nie Aoshuang

4 Sun Tianyu

3 Tang Xin

19 D. Qu

15 Nur Sherzat

30 Li Yubing

10 Wen Jialong

21 B. Li

57 X. Li

Coach · Houliang Wan

Substitutes

1 · Meng Derui

32 · Jiang Chengen

27 · Zhang Yixuan

41 · Yu Jingcheng

25 · Y. Wang

7 · Guo Yi

33 · S. Hongxiang

6 · Du Xiaoyu

18 · Zhu Shiqi

23 · W. Sun

12 · F. Lin

Our number · changchun xidu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:33 · locked at kick-off

37% The market48%

Us37%

~~Market~~48%

We make Changchun Xidu a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Changchun Xidu v Hubei Chufeng Heli~~1.13 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 39~~19 v 7

~~The market · Changchun Xidu win~~48% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Changchun Xidu win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Changchun Xidu win	37%	48%	−11
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Hubei Chufeng Heli win	31%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Changchun Xidu or draw	69%	77%	−8
Changchun Xidu clean sheet	37%	–	–
Hubei Chufeng Heli clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.3 10.8 6.1 2.1 1 12.0 14.2 6.7 2.3 2 7.4 7.3 3.7 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Changchun Xidu down, Hubei Chufeng Heli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.6% of games this season, across 320 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Changchun Xidu at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hubei Chufeng Heli away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Changchun Xidu, 1.02 for Hubei Chufeng Heli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HUB 1–2 CHA · CHA 1–0 HUB · HUB 1–3 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 15 Aug

CHANGCHUN XIDU

DWWDDW2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

HUBEI CHUFENG HELI

LWLDWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shanghai Port II	27	+20	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	27	+14	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	+11	48
4	Shandong Taishan II	27	+13	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng	27	+13	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	+9	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	26	+7	39
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	+4	39
9	Langfang Glory City	27	−5	38
10	Tai'an Tiankuang	27	+3	37
11	Guangdong Mingtu	27	+4	35
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	26	+6	34
13	Xiamen Feilu	26	+1	33
14	Dalian Yingbo B	26	−1	33
15	Rizhao Yuqi	27	−3	33
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	27	−16	31
17	Guangzhou Dandelion	27	−6	30
18	Qingdao Red Lions	26	0	29
19	Changchun Xidu	26	−11	28
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	−4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	26	−10	26
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	26	−8	25
23	BIT	27	−21	24
24	Shanghai Second	27	−20	18