BIT v Xiamen Feilu

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Xiamen Feilu win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Xiamen Feilu was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
3. 1′KICK-OFF BIT v Xiamen Feilu
4. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Bai Jiong · BIT
5. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Xu Wu · Xiamen Feilu
6. 33′Xiamen Feilu ahead on 33′ through Liu Ziming. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
7. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' BIT 0–1 Xiamen Feilu · Liu Ziming
8. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Xiamen Feilu win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
9. 34′We published Xiamen Feilu at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
10. 34′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
11. 45′HALF-TIME BIT 0–1 Xiamen Feilu
12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' BIT · On: Li Xinyao · Off: Hu Jiaqi
13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xiamen Feilu · On: Chen Zeng · Off: Piao Taoyu
14. 46′SECOND HALF BIT 0–1 Xiamen Feilu
15. 49′We published Xiamen Feilu at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
16. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Xiamen Feilu · On: Zhong Minghzi · Off: Han Kunda
17. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Xiamen Feilu · On: Cui Wei · Off: Xu Wu
18. 63′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Li Xinyao · BIT
19. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Cui Wei · Xiamen Feilu
20. 65′We published Xiamen Feilu at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
21. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Xiamen Feilu win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
22. 70′Li Xinyao scores for BIT on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–60–22
23. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' BIT 1–1 Xiamen Feilu · Li Xinyao
24. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Xiamen Feilu win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
25. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Xiamen Feilu win 82%)
26. 71′We said Xiamen Feilu at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 17–62–21
27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Xiamen Feilu · On: Tursun Qeyser · Off: Gu Jiayi
28. 75′We said Xiamen Feilu at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 15–68–18
29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' BIT · On: Li Qiya · Off: J. Wei
30. 79′We said Xiamen Feilu at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
31. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Xiamen Feilu win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
32. 85′We said Xiamen Feilu at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 7–86–8
33. 87′87′: Li Qiya on the scoresheet for BIT, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 93–6–0
34. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' BIT 2–1 Xiamen Feilu · Li Qiya
35. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Xiamen Feilu win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
36. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' BIT win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 88%)
37. 88′We said Xiamen Feilu at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
38. 88′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 94–6–0
39. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Li Qiya · BIT
40. 89′Xiamen Feilu level it on 89′ through Cui Wei. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–90–5
41. 89′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 4–90–5
42. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' BIT 2–2 Xiamen Feilu · Cui Wei
43. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was BIT win 95%)
44. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' BIT · On: Ren Shizhe · Off: Li Xinyao Corrected
45. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' BIT · On: Wang Yi · Off: Li Libo
46. FTFULL TIME BIT 2–2 Xiamen Feilu
47. FTBIT 2–2 Xiamen Feilu · Xiamen Feilu win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.