Yanbian Longding v Nantong Zhiyun prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 10:36

Yanbian Longding 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun NANTONG ZHIYUN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nantong Zhiyun win~~36%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nantong Zhiyun win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nantong Zhiyun 36% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Yanbian Longding v Nantong Zhiyun
3′Little has changed for our model: Nantong Zhiyun 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Yanbian Longding 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun · Hu Mingfei
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' An Yifei · Nantong Zhiyun
21′4′ and it is 0–1: Hu Mingfei on the scoresheet for Nantong Zhiyun. 0–1 · 10–21–69
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 69% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
23′4′ and it is 0–1: Hu Mingfei on the scoresheet for Nantong Zhiyun. 0–1 · 10–21–69
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 69% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' J. Domingos · Yanbian Longding
43′We said Nantong Zhiyun at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 7–21–73
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
45′SECOND HALF Yanbian Longding 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yanbian Longding · On: Li Ximin · Off: Piao Shihao
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Ye Daochi · Off: Jia Boyan
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yanbian Longding · On: Z. Huang · Off: R. Li
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Nantong Zhiyun win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Yanbian Longding · On: Che Zeping · Off: Hu Ziqian
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Yanbian Longding 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun · A. Kalulu
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Yanbian Longding 0–2 Nantong Zhiyun · A. Kalulu
75′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Huang Zhenfei · Yanbian Longding
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' V. Nunez · Yanbian Longding
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Yanbian Longding · On: Chen Keqiang · Off: Huang Zhenfei
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Liu Weicheng · Off: Deng Yubiao
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nantong Zhiyun · On: R. Dujardin · Off: An Yifei
94′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Beshathan Zanhar · Off: A. Kalulu
FTFULL TIME Yanbian Longding 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun
FTYanbian Longding 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun · Nantong Zhiyun win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Yanbian Longding win32%

Draw31%

Nantong Zhiyun win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 08:00

VenueYanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Yanbian Longding

Nantong Zhiyun

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Yanbian Longding

Nantong Zhiyun

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
7	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Yanbian Longding

Formation not confirmed

21 Kou Jiahao

33 Hu Ziqian

15 Xu Jizu

4 V. Nunez

19 Duan Dezhi

17 Piao Shihao

36 R. Li

37 Giovanny

5 J. Domingos

20 Jin Taiyan

30 Huang Zhenfei

Coach · Ki-Hyung Lee

Substitutes

13 · Wang Haocheng

2 · Che Zeping

23 · Wang Zihao

7 · Li Shibin

16 · Xu Wenguang

6 · Li Ximin

32 · Z. Huang

28 · Pan Xuanyu

8 · He Zhenyu

11 · Chen Keqiang

43 · Cui Xuanyou

40 · Jin Xingdao

Nantong Zhiyun

Formation not confirmed

1 Nie Xuran

21 Lucas Kal

6 Hu Mingfei

4 Luo Xin

36 Dai Yuanji

26 Deng Yubiao

28 An Yifei

27 Wu Xingyu

10 A. Kalulu

14 E. Gonzalez

37 Jia Boyan

Coach · Dae-Eui Kim

Substitutes

16 · Lu Jin

7 · Ye Daochi

5 · Shen Chao

2 · Xu Hui

15 · Liu Wei

23 · R. Dujardin

8 · Liu Weicheng

20 · Jiang Jiapeng

11 · Ruan Yang

40 · Beshathan Zanhar

17 · Ling Jie

39 · Liu Ye

Our number · nantong zhiyun winPublished 11 Oct 08:03

36% The market47%

Us36%

~~Market~~47%

We make Nantong Zhiyun a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nantong zhiyun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yanbian Longding win	32%	25%	+8
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Nantong Zhiyun win	36%	47%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−5
Yanbian Longding or draw	64%	53%	+10
Yanbian Longding clean sheet	32%	–	–
Nantong Zhiyun clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.6 11.5 7.2 2.8 1 10.5 14.2 7.4 2.9 2 6.2 6.9 3.9 3 2.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yanbian Longding down, Nantong Zhiyun across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,539 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yanbian Longding at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nantong Zhiyun away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Yanbian Longding, 1.15 for Nantong Zhiyun. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NAN 2–0 YAN · NAN 0–1 YAN · YAN 1–0 NAN

Form · last six in League One

YANBIAN LONGDING

WLLLLD3–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

NANTONG ZHIYUN

LDWLWW2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
7	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
8	Hebei Kungfu	26	−2	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	35
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−5	31
12	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
13	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16