Yanbian Longding v Dongguan United prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 10:33

Yanbian Longding 5–0 Dongguan United YANBIAN LONGDING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yanbian Longding win~~62%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.220

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.242

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yanbian Longding win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Yanbian Longding 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
1′KICK-OFF Yanbian Longding v Dongguan United
16′Yanbian Longding ahead on 15′ through Duan Dezhi. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
16′We said Yanbian Longding at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Yanbian Longding 1–0 Dongguan United · Duan Dezhi
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Yanbian Longding win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
18′We said Yanbian Longding at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–4
26′Huang Zhenfei scores for Yanbian Longding on 26′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Yanbian Longding 2–0 Dongguan United · Huang Zhenfei
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Yanbian Longding win: 62% at kick-off, 96% now
27′We said Yanbian Longding at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Yanbian Longding 2–0 Dongguan United
46′SECOND HALF Yanbian Longding 2–0 Dongguan United
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' G. Yu · Dongguan United
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dongguan United · On: Zhong Ziqin · Off: Mu Zihan
53′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
60′59′: Giovanny on the scoresheet for Yanbian Longding, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′We said Yanbian Longding at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Yanbian Longding 3–0 Dongguan United · Giovanny (penalty)
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dongguan United · On: Chang Feiya · Off: Xu Yue
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yanbian Longding · On: Pan Xuanyu · Off: Jin Taiyan
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yanbian Longding · On: Zong Xuanyu · Off: Huang Zhenfei
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Yanbian Longding · On: Piao Shihao · Off: Li Ximin
82′Yanbian Longding ahead on 81′ through F. Brown. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Yanbian Longding 4–0 Dongguan United · F. Brown
83′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Yanbian Longding · On: Cui Xuanyou · Off: Duan Dezhi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dongguan United · On: Yao Hui · Off: G. Yu
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dongguan United · On: W. Jiang · Off: Z. Jiang
90′F. Brown scores for Yanbian Longding on 90′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Yanbian Longding 5–0 Dongguan United · F. Brown
91′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Yanbian Longding 5–0 Dongguan United
FTYanbian Longding 5–0 Dongguan United · Yanbian Longding win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yanbian Longding are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yanbian Longding 62%, draw 23%, Dongguan United 15%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Yanbian Longding v Dongguan UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yanbian Longding win62%

Draw23%

Dongguan United win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueYanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Line-ups

Yanbian Longding

Dongguan United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yanbian Longding

Dongguan United

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Yanbian Longding	26	+5	36
16	Dongguan United	26	−28	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yanbian Longding

Formation not confirmed

21 Kou Jiahao

4 V. Nunez

15 Xu Jizu

19 Duan Dezhi

14 Cui Taixu

5 J. Domingos

6 Li Ximin

20 Jin Taiyan

30 Huang Zhenfei

10 F. Brown

37 Giovanny

Coach · Ki-Hyung Lee

Substitutes

13 · Wang Haocheng

2 · Che Zeping

33 · Hu Ziqian

23 · Wang Zihao

17 · Piao Shihao

7 · Li Shibin

16 · Xu Wenguang

32 · Z. Huang

28 · Pan Xuanyu

11 · Chen Keqiang

43 · Cui Xuanyou

9 · Zong Xuanyu

Dongguan United

Formation not confirmed

26 Ge Yifan

2 Qian Yumiao

12 Liu Zongyuan

32 G. Yu

15 N. Benavides

22 Z. Jiang

29 Xu Yue

7 Mu Zihan

25 Aniwar Abduwahap

44 R. Antwi

11 M. Ndiaye

Coach · Haijun Li

Substitutes

1 · Gao Yuqin

33 · Qin Haoqing

19 · H. Liu

5 · Jin Liangkuan

31 · Yao Hui

10 · Zhong Ziqin

3 · W. Jiang

21 · Yu Zean

24 · M. Deletic

9 · Chang Feiya

14 · Zheng Junwei

Our number · yanbian longding winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

62% The market60%

Us62%

~~Market~~60%

We make Yanbian Longding a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yanbian Longding v Dongguan United~~1.94 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 16~~7 v 16

~~The market · Yanbian Longding win~~60% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yanbian Longding win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yanbian Longding win	62%	60%	+2
Draw	23%	23%	0
Dongguan United win	15%	17%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Yanbian Longding or draw	85%	83%	+2
Yanbian Longding clean sheet	44%	–	–
Dongguan United clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.6 4.5 2.3 1 11.4 10.9 4.2 2 11.6 9.4 3.9 3 7.5 6.0 2.5 4 3.7 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yanbian Longding down, Dongguan United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,544 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yanbian Longding at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dongguan United away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Yanbian Longding, 0.83 for Dongguan United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DON 0–2 YAN · YAN 4–1 DON · DON 2–2 YAN · YAN 0–1 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

YANBIAN LONGDING

LLLLDL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

DONGGUAN UNITED

LDLDWL1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	26	+33	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	+15	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	26	+13	46
4	Shenzhen Juniors	26	+11	45
5	Shaanxi Union	26	+19	42
6	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
7	Yanbian Longding	26	+5	36
8	Hebei Kungfu	26	−2	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	31
10	Ningbo Professional	26	−4	30
11	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−5	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	26	−13	24
14	Nanjing City	26	−16	22
15	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	16
16	Dongguan United	26	−28	16