Wuxi Wugou v Shaanxi Union prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Wuxi WugouDrawShaanxi Union

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shaanxi Union 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shaanxi Union are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wuxi Wugou 31%, draw 25%, Shaanxi Union 44%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Wuxi Wugou v Shaanxi UnionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Wuxi Wugou win31%

Draw25%

Shaanxi Union win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueWuxi Sport Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wuxi Wugou

Shaanxi Union

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shaanxi union winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market53%

Us44%

~~Market~~53%

We make Shaanxi Union a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wuxi Wugou v Shaanxi Union~~1.40 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 45~~8 v 5

~~The market · Shaanxi Union win~~53% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shaanxi Union win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wuxi Wugou win	31%	22%	+9
Draw	25%	25%	0
Shaanxi Union win	44%	53%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	60%	54%	+6
Both teams to score	62%	55%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	76%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	38%	33%	+5
Wuxi Wugou or draw	56%	47%	+9
Wuxi Wugou clean sheet	19%	–	–
Shaanxi Union clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.7 6.8 6.5 3.7 1 5.5 11.4 8.8 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.3 6.1 3.5 3 2.1 3.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wuxi Wugou down, Shaanxi Union across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wuxi Wugou at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shaanxi Union away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Wuxi Wugou, 1.71 for Shaanxi Union. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHA 2–1 WUX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 12 Sept

WUXI WUGOU

WLWDWL3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 0–2

SHAANXI UNION

LDWWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 5–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	28	+17	54
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	28	+10	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Hebei Kungfu	28	+1	40
7	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	28	−5	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Nanjing City	28	−12	28
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	28	−36	16