Wuxi Wugou v Heilongjiang Lava Spring prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Wuxi Wugou 0–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring WUXI WUGOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wuxi Wugou win~~50%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.615

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wuxi Wugou win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wuxi Wugou 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Wuxi Wugou v Heilongjiang Lava Spring
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Zhu Jiaxuan · Heilongjiang Lava Spring
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wuxi Wugou win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Wuxi Wugou 0–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: Hao Yucheng · Off: Zhang Zimin
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: Hu Jiajin · Off: Li Zhi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wuxi Wugou · On: Wang Yifan · Off: Tang Rui
46′SECOND HALF Wuxi Wugou 0–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
50′We said Wuxi Wugou at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–39–23
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Wuxi Wugou win 37%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–42–22
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Wuxi Wugou · On: Zhou Yunyi · Off: Dong Kaining
59′We said Wuxi Wugou at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–21
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Wang Zihao · Wuxi Wugou
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Lin Jiahao · Wuxi Wugou
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: Ma Chenghao · Off: Tang Shi
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Wuxi Wugou win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
66′65′: Erikys on the scoresheet for Heilongjiang Lava Spring, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
66′We said Wuxi Wugou at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Wuxi Wugou 0–1 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · Erikys
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Wuxi Wugou win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Heilongjiang Lava Spring win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
72′We said Wuxi Wugou at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
73′Heilongjiang Lava Spring ahead on 72′ through M. Palacios. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Wuxi Wugou 0–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · M. Palacios
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Wuxi Wugou win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Wuxi Wugou · On: Liu Boyang · Off: Lin Jiahao
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' B. Yang · Heilongjiang Lava Spring
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Hu Jiajin · Heilongjiang Lava Spring
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: M. Petrov · Off: Erikys
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wuxi Wugou · On: Li Boxi · Off: N. Albarracin
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Wuxi Wugou · On: Chen Guokang · Off: Tursunjan Ahmat
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Heilongjiang Lava Spring · On: Yan Jiahao · Off: Zhu Mingxin
FTFULL TIME Wuxi Wugou 0–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FTWuxi Wugou 0–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring · Wuxi Wugou win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wuxi Wugou are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wuxi Wugou 50%, draw 25%, Heilongjiang Lava Spring 25%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Wuxi Wugou v Heilongjiang Lava SpringBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wuxi Wugou win50%

Draw25%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueWuxi Sport Center

Line-ups

Wuxi Wugou

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wuxi Wugou

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	26	−13	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wuxi Wugou

Formation not confirmed

13 Zhu Yueqi

5 Lin Jiahao

25 Wang Zihao

4 T. Isic

16 Zhou Pinxi

36 Tang Rui

23 Dong Kaining

6 Tursunjan Ahmat

37 Yi Xianlong

7 N. Albarracin

19 N. Noordanus

Coach · Bruno Dias

Substitutes

14 · Hao Kesen

2 · Liu Boyang

9 · Wang Yifan

28 · Zhou Zhixuan

27 · He Wei

3 · Xie Xiaofan

38 · Chen Guokang

31 · Zhou Yunyi

20 · Zhang Yonglong

30 · Li Boxi

17 · Z. Sun

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Formation not confirmed

31 Xiao Yuanming

3 Zhu Mingxin

17 Chen Po-Liang

4 Daciel

45 B. Yang

6 Zhu Jiaxuan

8 Zhang Zimin

16 Li Zhi

10 Tang Shi

11 Erikys

7 M. Palacios

Coach · Biao Mao

Substitutes

1 · Du Jia

24 · Yang Chen

34 · Hao Yucheng

33 · Yan Jiahao

23 · Du Junpeng

28 · Cheng Yetong

22 · S. Gao

18 · Fan Bojian

21 · Hu Jiajin

37 · M. Petrov

9 · Ma Chenghao

19 · Han Yuchen

Our number · wuxi wugou winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market37%

Us50%

~~Market~~37%

We make Wuxi Wugou a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wuxi Wugou v Heilongjiang Lava Spring~~1.82 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 36 v 24~~8 v 13

~~The market · Wuxi Wugou win~~37% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wuxi Wugou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wuxi Wugou win	50%	37%	+13
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Heilongjiang Lava Spring win	25%	36%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	58%	52%	+6
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	75%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	31%	+5
Wuxi Wugou or draw	75%	64%	+11
Wuxi Wugou clean sheet	30%	–	–
Heilongjiang Lava Spring clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.1 5.1 3.7 1 7.9 11.4 6.4 2.6 2 7.8 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.7 5.6 3.4 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wuxi Wugou down, Heilongjiang Lava Spring across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,544 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wuxi Wugou at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Heilongjiang Lava Spring away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Wuxi Wugou, 1.22 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HEI 3–3 WUX · HEI 0–1 WUX · WUX 0–1 HEI · WUX 2–1 HEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

WUXI WUGOU

LWLWDW1–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING

LLLDDL3–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	26	+33	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	+15	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	26	+13	46
4	Shenzhen Juniors	26	+11	45
5	Shaanxi Union	26	+19	42
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	26	+1	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	31
10	Ningbo Professional	26	−4	30
11	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−8	27
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	26	−13	24
14	Nanjing City	26	−16	22
15	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16