Suzhou Dongwu v Yanbian Longding prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Suzhou DongwuDrawYanbian Longding

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Yanbian Longding 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yanbian Longding are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suzhou Dongwu 32%, draw 31%, Yanbian Longding 37%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Suzhou Dongwu v Yanbian LongdingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Suzhou Dongwu win32%

Draw31%

Yanbian Longding win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 06:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueSuzhou Sports Centre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suzhou Dongwu

Yanbian Longding

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yanbian longding winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Yanbian Longding a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Suzhou Dongwu v Yanbian Longding~~1.08 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 39~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suzhou Dongwu win	32%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Yanbian Longding win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Suzhou Dongwu or draw	63%	–	–
Suzhou Dongwu clean sheet	31%	–	–
Yanbian Longding clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.0 11.3 7.3 2.9 1 10.3 14.0 7.6 3.0 2 6.1 7.0 4.1 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suzhou Dongwu down, Yanbian Longding across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suzhou Dongwu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yanbian Longding away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Suzhou Dongwu, 1.18 for Yanbian Longding. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~YAN 3–1 SUZ · SUZ 1–1 YAN · YAN 2–1 SUZ · YAN 0–5 SUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

SUZHOU DONGWU

WWDDDD2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

YANBIAN LONGDING

LLLDLW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	28	+17	54
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	28	+10	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Hebei Kungfu	28	+1	40
7	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	28	−5	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Nanjing City	28	−12	28
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	28	−36	16