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Suzhou Dongwu v Hebei Kungfu

Suzhou Dongwu

0–0Full time

Hebei Kungfu

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Suzhou Sports Centre

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Suzhou Dongwu 0–0 Hebei Kungfu SUZHOU DONGWU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Suzhou Dongwu win~~34%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.666

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Suzhou Dongwu win at 34%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Suzhou Dongwu 34% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–31–34
1′KICK-OFF Suzhou Dongwu v Hebei Kungfu
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' S. Zhao · Suzhou Dongwu
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Suzhou Dongwu win 32%)
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' J. Yuan · Suzhou Dongwu
40′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Suzhou Dongwu · On: Arafat Ghenifa · Off: M. Ali
45′HALF-TIME Suzhou Dongwu 0–0 Hebei Kungfu
47′SECOND HALF Suzhou Dongwu 0–0 Hebei Kungfu
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' P. Shan · Hebei Kungfu
66′We said Suzhou Dongwu at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–63–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Suzhou Dongwu win: 34% at kick-off, 18% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hebei Kungfu · On: Du Zhixuan · Off: T. Conraad
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hebei Kungfu · On: Guo Lingzi · Off: H. Vidal
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hebei Kungfu · On: C. Zhao · Off: Dominic Vinicius
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suzhou Dongwu · On: B. Wang · Off: O. Bugiel
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Suzhou Dongwu · On: Chen Rong · Off: J. Yuan
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hebei Kungfu · On: Zhou Wenhao · Off: Ma Junliang
86′We said Suzhou Dongwu at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Suzhou Dongwu win: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Suzhou Dongwu · On: Wu Junjie · Off: Song Pan
FTFULL TIME Suzhou Dongwu 0–0 Hebei Kungfu
FTSuzhou Dongwu 0–0 Hebei Kungfu · Suzhou Dongwu win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Suzhou Dongwu win34%

Draw33%

Hebei Kungfu win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Suzhou Sports Centre

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Suzhou Dongwu

Formation not confirmed

37 Askhan

18 Tai Jianfeng

45 M. Mijit

15 Jin Qiang

36 J. Yuan

16 S. Zhao

6 Estrela

21 Song Pan

7 Farley Rosa

9 M. Ali

14 O. Bugiel

Coach · Hui Guo

Substitutes

27 · Lei Zhibo

2 · Song Bowei

5 · Wang Yulong

39 · Tian Jiahao

20 · Chen Rong

17 · Wang Jiancong

24 · Zhang Jiansheng

42 · Arafat Ghenifa

19 · Wu Junjie

25 · Z. Yu

26 · B. Wang

30 · He Haohan

Hebei Kungfu

Formation not confirmed

13 Li Xuebo

29 P. Shan

36 Yang Yun

5 Niu Ziyi

27 Hakimhan Ernar

6 Zhao Shuhao

10 H. Vidal

28 Zhang Yudong

26 Ma Junliang

7 T. Conraad

31 Dominic Vinicius

Coach · Jesus Tato

Substitutes

19 · Li Ya'nan

33 · Y. Li

3 · Li Jingrun

4 · Pan Kui

25 · I. Kurban

18 · Zheng Zhiyun

8 · Du Zhixuan

15 · C. Zhao

30 · Zhou Wenhao

9 · Guo Lingzi

39 · B. Liu

38 · Chen Hao-Wei

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Suzhou Dongwu

Formation not confirmed

37 Askhan

18 Tai Jianfeng

45 M. Mijit

15 Jin Qiang

36 J. Yuan

16 S. Zhao

6 Estrela

21 Song Pan

7 Farley Rosa

9 M. Ali

14 O. Bugiel

Coach · Hui Guo

Substitutes

27 · Lei Zhibo

2 · Song Bowei

5 · Wang Yulong

39 · Tian Jiahao

20 · Chen Rong

17 · Wang Jiancong

24 · Zhang Jiansheng

42 · Arafat Ghenifa

19 · Wu Junjie

25 · Z. Yu

26 · B. Wang

30 · He Haohan

Hebei Kungfu

Formation not confirmed

13 Li Xuebo

29 P. Shan

36 Yang Yun

5 Niu Ziyi

27 Hakimhan Ernar

6 Zhao Shuhao

10 H. Vidal

28 Zhang Yudong

26 Ma Junliang

7 T. Conraad

31 Dominic Vinicius

Coach · Jesus Tato

Substitutes

19 · Li Ya'nan

33 · Y. Li

3 · Li Jingrun

4 · Pan Kui

25 · I. Kurban

18 · Zheng Zhiyun

8 · Du Zhixuan

15 · C. Zhao

30 · Zhou Wenhao

9 · Guo Lingzi

39 · B. Liu

38 · Chen Hao-Wei

Our number · suzhou dongwu winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

34% The market44%

Us34%

~~Market~~44%

We make Suzhou Dongwu a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · suzhou dongwu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suzhou Dongwu win	34%	44%	−10
Draw	33%	29%	+4
Hebei Kungfu win	33%	27%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Both teams to score	40%	50%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	59%	69%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	14%	24%	−10
Suzhou Dongwu or draw	67%	73%	−6
Suzhou Dongwu clean sheet	38%	–	–
Hebei Kungfu clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.5%

0123450 15.5 12.6 6.7 2.2 1 12.7 14.3 6.4 2.1 2 6.8 6.5 3.2 3 2.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suzhou Dongwu down, Hebei Kungfu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,536 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suzhou Dongwu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hebei Kungfu away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Suzhou Dongwu, 0.98 for Hebei Kungfu. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HEB 1–1 SUZ · SUZ 1–1 HEB · HEB 1–1 SUZ · HEB 2–0 SUZ

Form · last six in League One

SUZHOU DONGWU

DWWWDD3–3 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

HEBEI KUNGFU

WWWDWW2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
7	Hebei Kungfu	25	−2	34
8	Changchun Yatai	25	−3	34
9	Wuxi Wugou	25	+7	33
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	25	−5	30
12	Dalian Huayi	25	−7	29
13	Meizhou Kejia	25	−25	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16