Shaanxi Union v Guangzhou E-Power prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Shaanxi Union 4–0 Guangzhou E-Power GUANGZHOU E-POWER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guangzhou E-Power win~~43%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.532

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guangzhou E-Power win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Guangzhou E-Power 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
1′KICK-OFF Shaanxi Union v Guangzhou E-Power
6′A. Selmani scores for Shaanxi Union on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–20–22
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Shaanxi Union 1–0 Guangzhou E-Power · A. Selmani
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Guangzhou E-Power win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Shaanxi Union win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Guangzhou E-Power win 22%)
7′We said Guangzhou E-Power at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 58–20–22
9′9′: Zhong Wen on the scoresheet for Shaanxi Union, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 78–13–9
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Shaanxi Union 2–0 Guangzhou E-Power · Zhong Wen
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Guangzhou E-Power win: 43% at kick-off, 9% now
10′We said Guangzhou E-Power at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 78–13–9
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Duan Yunzi · Guangzhou E-Power
33′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Liu Langzhou · Off: J. Wang
33′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Hou Yu · Off: Xiao Kun
38′We said Guangzhou E-Power at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
43′Shaanxi Union ahead on 43′ through D. Irandust. 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Shaanxi Union 3–0 Guangzhou E-Power · D. Irandust
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Guangzhou E-Power win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
45′HALF-TIME Shaanxi Union 3–0 Guangzhou E-Power
46′SECOND HALF Shaanxi Union 3–0 Guangzhou E-Power
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Liang Xueming · Off: Gao Huaze
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jiang Wenhao · Shaanxi Union
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' H. Wang · Guangzhou E-Power
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Guangzhou E-Power · On: W. Wei · Off: H. Wang
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shaanxi Union · On: Wang Jia'nan · Off: Jiang Wenhao
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Shaanxi Union 4–0 Guangzhou E-Power · R. El Azrak
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Wei Zhiwei · Shaanxi Union
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Guangzhou E-Power · On: Cai Haochang · Off: Duan Yunzi
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Shaanxi Union · On: Guo Wuyue · Off: Ma Sheng
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shaanxi Union · On: H. W. Ma · Off: Zhong Wen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shaanxi Union · On: Cao Kang · Off: Wei Zhiwei
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shaanxi Union · On: Tan Kaiyuan · Off: A. Selmani
FTFULL TIME Shaanxi Union 4–0 Guangzhou E-Power
FTShaanxi Union 4–0 Guangzhou E-Power · Guangzhou E-Power win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guangzhou E-Power are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shaanxi Union 32%, draw 25%, Guangzhou E-Power 43%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Shaanxi Union v Guangzhou E-PowerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shaanxi Union win32%

Draw25%

Guangzhou E-Power win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueWeinan Sports Center Stadium

Line-ups

Shaanxi Union

Guangzhou E-Power

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shaanxi Union

Guangzhou E-Power

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shaanxi Union

Formation not confirmed

31 Luan Yi

23 W. Jin

5 Ma Sheng

40 S. Yang

27 Jiang Wenhao

42 Wei Zhiwei

21 Wang Shijie

7 Zhong Wen

19 D. Irandust

10 R. El Azrak

9 A. Selmani

Coach · Jouad Boufarra

Substitutes

16 · Zhao Shi

39 · He Lipan

24 · Liang Shaowen

38 · Wang Jia'nan

29 · Mi Haolun

15 · Guo Wuyue

25 · Cao Kang

20 · H. W. Ma

34 · Ghojaehmet Shahzat

32 · Qian Ruofan

33 · Tan Kaiyuan

30 · Leng Jixuan

Guangzhou E-Power

Formation not confirmed

19 Chen Junxu

3 Han Xuan

16 Liao Junjian

25 Wang Chien-Ming

24 J. Wang

43 Xiao Kun

6 Duan Yunzi

18 H. Wang

27 Gao Huaze

20 Joao Carlos

7 O. Camara

Coach · Feng Feng

Substitutes

22 · Xiao Jiaqi

15 · Deng Biao

4 · Liu Langzhou

5 · Jiang Jihong

8 · Cai Haochang

34 · Hou Yu

28 · Wang Heyi

29 · Wang Jingbin

10 · Liang Xueming

17 · Yang Hao

32 · W. Wei

Our number · guangzhou e-power winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market33%

Us43%

~~Market~~33%

We make Guangzhou E-Power a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shaanxi Union v Guangzhou E-Power~~1.50 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 42 v 60~~5 v 1

~~The market · Guangzhou E-Power win~~33% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guangzhou E-Power win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shaanxi Union win	32%	41%	−9
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Guangzhou E-Power win	43%	33%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	58%	+5
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	41%	38%	+3
Shaanxi Union or draw	57%	67%	−10
Shaanxi Union clean sheet	18%	–	–
Guangzhou E-Power clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 5.9 5.9 3.5 1 5.0 11.0 8.6 5.0 2.3 2 4.4 7.4 6.4 3.7 3 2.2 3.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shaanxi Union down, Guangzhou E-Power across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shaanxi Union at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Guangzhou E-Power away: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Shaanxi Union, 1.76 for Guangzhou E-Power. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GUA 2–1 SHA · GUA 2–2 SHA · SHA 1–2 GUA · GUA 0–0 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 30 Aug

SHAANXI UNION

WLDWWW2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 5–1

GUANGZHOU E-POWER

WDDWWW3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	26	+33	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	+15	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	+13	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	26	+19	42
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	26	+1	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	27	−3	32
10	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
11	Dalian Huayi	27	−7	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	26	−16	22
15	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16