Shaanxi Union v Dongguan United prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Shaanxi Union 5–1 Dongguan United SHAANXI UNION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shaanxi Union win~~67%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.163

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shaanxi Union win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shaanxi Union was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–18–14
2′Much as we predicted: Shaanxi Union was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–18–14
23′Shaanxi Union ahead on 20′ through A. Selmani. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
24′Shaanxi Union ahead on 20′ through A. Selmani. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
29′We published Shaanxi Union at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
34′We published Shaanxi Union at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Shaanxi Union 2–0 Dongguan United · Wang Shijie
40′Wang Shijie scores for Shaanxi Union on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Zhang Xingbo · Dongguan United
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
42′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Shaanxi Union · On: Wang Jia'nan · Off: W. Jin
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Wang Shijie · Shaanxi Union
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Shaanxi Union win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
45′HALF-TIME Shaanxi Union 2–0 Dongguan United
46′SECOND HALF Shaanxi Union 2–0 Dongguan United
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' M. Ndiaye · Dongguan United
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Shaanxi Union 2–1 Dongguan United · Chang Feiya
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Shaanxi Union 3–1 Dongguan United · A. Selmani
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Shaanxi Union · On: Jiang Wenhao · Off: Mi Haolun
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Shaanxi Union 4–1 Dongguan United · A. Selmani
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Shaanxi Union · On: Cao Kang · Off: Wei Zhiwei
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Shaanxi Union · On: Guo Wuyue · Off: Liang Shaowen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dongguan United · On: Zhong Ziqin · Off: R. Antwi
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Shaanxi Union 5–1 Dongguan United · A. Selmani
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Chang Feiya · Dongguan United
FTFULL TIME Shaanxi Union 5–1 Dongguan United
FTShaanxi Union 5–1 Dongguan United · Shaanxi Union win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Shaanxi Union win67%

Draw19%

Dongguan United win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueWeinan Sports Center Stadium

Line-ups

Shaanxi Union

Dongguan United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shaanxi Union

Dongguan United

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shaanxi Union

Formation not confirmed

31 Luan Yi

23 W. Jin

5 Ma Sheng

24 Liang Shaowen

29 Mi Haolun

42 Wei Zhiwei

20 H. W. Ma

21 Wang Shijie

19 D. Irandust

10 R. El Azrak

9 A. Selmani

Coach · Jouad Boufarra

Substitutes

16 · Zhao Shi

39 · He Lipan

38 · Wang Jia'nan

15 · Guo Wuyue

40 · S. Yang

25 · Cao Kang

34 · Ghojaehmet Shahzat

32 · Qian Ruofan

33 · Tan Kaiyuan

27 · Jiang Wenhao

7 · Zhong Wen

30 · Leng Jixuan

Dongguan United

Formation not confirmed

36 Shi Xiaton

22 Z. Jiang

2 Qian Yumiao

32 G. Yu

19 H. Liu

15 N. Benavides

13 Zhang Xingbo

29 Xu Yue

7 Mu Zihan

44 R. Antwi

11 M. Ndiaye

Coach · Haijun Li

Substitutes

1 · Gao Yuqin

5 · Jin Liangkuan

12 · Liu Zongyuan

31 · Yao Hui

10 · Zhong Ziqin

3 · W. Jiang

21 · Yu Zean

24 · M. Deletic

9 · Chang Feiya

Our number · shaanxi union winPublished 11 Oct 08:34

67% The market69%

Us67%

~~Market~~69%

We make Shaanxi Union a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shaanxi union win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shaanxi Union win	67%	69%	−1
Draw	19%	19%	0
Dongguan United win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	63%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Shaanxi Union or draw	87%	88%	−1
Shaanxi Union clean sheet	39%	–	–
Dongguan United clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.8 3.0 1 8.1 9.0 3.9 2 10.0 9.3 4.4 3 7.8 7.2 3.4 4 4.6 4.3 2.0 5 2.3 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Shaanxi Union down, Dongguan United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,539 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shaanxi Union at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dongguan United away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Shaanxi Union, 0.95 for Dongguan United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DON 0–5 SHA · SHA 3–1 DON · DON 2–1 SHA

Form · last six in League One

SHAANXI UNION

WWLDWW3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 4–1

DONGGUAN UNITED

LLDLDW0–6 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
7	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
8	Hebei Kungfu	26	−2	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	35
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−5	31
12	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
13	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16