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Ningbo Professional v Suzhou Dongwu

Ningbo Professional
1–1Full time
Suzhou Dongwu

League One · SAT 17 OCT · Ningbo Cixi Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Ningbo Professional 1–1 Suzhou Dongwu NINGBO PROFESSIONAL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Ningbo Professional win39%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.695
The market’s Brier score0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ningbo Professional win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ningbo Professional 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ningbo Professional v Suzhou Dongwu
  4. 7′Suzhou Dongwu ahead on 7′ through Arafat Ghenifa. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–62
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ningbo Professional 0–1 Suzhou Dongwu · Arafat Ghenifa
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Ningbo Professional win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
  7. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Suzhou Dongwu win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Ningbo Professional win 16%)
  8. 8′We said Ningbo Professional at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–62
  9. 14′We said Ningbo Professional at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 11–23–66
  11. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Ningbo Professional · On: K. Shang · Off: Liu Yue
  12. 38′We said Ningbo Professional at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  13. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Ningbo Professional win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Ningbo Professional 0–1 Suzhou Dongwu
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ningbo Professional · On: K. Pang · Off: J. Yao
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Ningbo Professional 0–1 Suzhou Dongwu
  17. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Suzhou Dongwu · On: M. Ali · Off: Wu Junjie
  18. 60′We said Ningbo Professional at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  19. 61′Yao Diran scores for Ningbo Professional on 60′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–57–19
  20. 61′We said Ningbo Professional at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
  21. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ningbo Professional 1–1 Suzhou Dongwu · Yao Diran (assist Liu Yang)
  22. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Ningbo Professional win: 39% at kick-off, 24% now
  23. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Suzhou Dongwu win 19%)
  24. 62′Yao Diran scores for Ningbo Professional on 59′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–58–19
  25. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Ningbo Professional win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  26. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' O. Bugiel · Suzhou Dongwu
  27. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Bai Jiajun · Ningbo Professional
  28. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Yao Diran · Ningbo Professional
  29. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Suzhou Dongwu · On: M. Mijit · Off: Liu Jiqiang
  30. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ningbo Professional · On: Leo Cittadini · Off: S. Tomovic
  31. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ningbo Professional · On: Lin Wenkai · Off: Zhou Junchen
  32. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Suzhou Dongwu · On: B. Wang · Off: Arafat Ghenifa
  33. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Suzhou Dongwu · On: Z. Yu · Off: Chen Rong
  34. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Suzhou Dongwu · On: Zhang Jiansheng · Off: O. Bugiel
  35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ningbo Professional · On: Zhou Junhao · Off: Bai Jiajun
  36. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Ningbo Professional win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  37. FTFULL TIME Ningbo Professional 1–1 Suzhou Dongwu
  38. FTNingbo Professional 1–1 Suzhou Dongwu · Ningbo Professional win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ningbo Professional are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ningbo Professional 39%, draw 32%, Suzhou Dongwu 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Ningbo Professional v Suzhou DongwuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ningbo Professional win39%
Draw32%
Suzhou Dongwu win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueNingbo Cixi Stadium

Line-ups

Ningbo Professional

Suzhou Dongwu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ningbo Professional

Suzhou Dongwu

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Ningbo Professional26−430
12Suzhou Dongwu26−827

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ningbo Professional

Formation not confirmed

1 Lin Xiang

5 Yao Diran

30 Liu Yang

23 Bai Jiajun

11 Liu Yue

19 Gao Haisheng

28 Zhang Lingfeng

17 Zhou Junchen

42 J. Yao

10 Leonardo

45 S. Tomovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

38 · X. Chen

22 · Wang Qinghua

2 · K. Shang

34 · Z. Li

4 · Y. Zou

8 · Leo Cittadini

25 · Qu Geping

41 · Y. Xiao

9 · Men Yang

36 · Zhou Junhao

21 · Lin Wenkai

7 · K. Pang

Suzhou Dongwu

Formation not confirmed

37 Askhan

18 Tai Jianfeng

33 Liu Jiqiang

15 Jin Qiang

20 Chen Rong

42 Arafat Ghenifa

16 S. Zhao

6 Estrela

7 Farley Rosa

14 O. Bugiel

19 Wu Junjie

Coach · Hui Guo

Substitutes

1 · Liu Yu

27 · Lei Zhibo

2 · Song Bowei

45 · M. Mijit

5 · Wang Yulong

39 · Tian Jiahao

9 · M. Ali

17 · Wang Jiancong

24 · Zhang Jiansheng

25 · Z. Yu

26 · B. Wang

30 · He Haohan

Our number · ningbo professional winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
39% The market32%
Us39%
Market32%

We make Ningbo Professional a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ningbo Professional v Suzhou Dongwu1.14 – 0.95
Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 AugW1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 30 v 2710 v 12
The market · Ningbo Professional win32% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 11:38
Our probability · Ningbo Professional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ningbo Professional win39%32%+7
Draw32%32%0
Suzhou Dongwu win29%36%−7
Over 2.5 goals35%40%−5
Both teams to score42%48%−6
Over 1.5 goals63%65%−2
Over 3.5 goals16%21%−5
Ningbo Professional or draw71%64%+7
Ningbo Professional clean sheet39%––
Suzhou Dongwu clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%
0123450 14.0 10.6 5.6 1 12.9 14.2 6.2 2.0 2 8.0 7.4 3.5 3 3.1 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ningbo Professional down, Suzhou Dongwu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsSUZ 1–2 NIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL

LWLLLD0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

SUZHOU DONGWU

WWWDDD4–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Guangzhou E-Power26+3360
2Nantong Zhiyun26+1548
3Guangxi Hengchen26+1346
4Shenzhen Juniors26+1145
5Shaanxi Union26+1942
6Yanbian Longding27+1039
7Hebei Kungfu26+137
8Wuxi Wugou26+1036
9Changchun Yatai26−331
10Ningbo Professional26−430
11Dalian Huayi26−730
12Suzhou Dongwu26−827
13Heilongjiang Lava Spring26−1324
14Nanjing City26−1622
15Meizhou Kejia26−2816
16Dongguan United27−3316

The competition's standings before kick-off.