Ningbo Professional v Nanjing City prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Ningbo Professional 0–0 Nanjing City NINGBO PROFESSIONAL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ningbo Professional win~~48%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ningbo Professional win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Ningbo Professional v Nanjing City
2′Much as we predicted: Ningbo Professional was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
3′Much as we predicted: Ningbo Professional was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Chen Ao · Ningbo Professional
41′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Dong Honglin · Nanjing City
45′HALF-TIME Ningbo Professional 0–0 Nanjing City
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ningbo Professional · On: Zhou Junchen · Off: S. Tomovic
45′SECOND HALF Ningbo Professional 0–0 Nanjing City
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' J. Ngom Mbekeli · Nanjing City
53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Meng Zhen · Nanjing City
63′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nanjing City · On: An Bang · Off: W. Qurban
63′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nanjing City · On: Yang Dejiang · Off: Bruno Baio
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ningbo Professional · On: Leo Cittadini · Off: Zhang Lingfeng
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ningbo Professional · On: K. Shang · Off: Bai Jiajun
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nanjing City · On: Zhu Qiwen · Off: Hu Rentian
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Ningbo Professional · On: Lin Wenkai · Off: J. Yao
FTFULL TIME Ningbo Professional 0–0 Nanjing City
FTNingbo Professional 0–0 Nanjing City · Ningbo Professional win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ningbo Professional win48%

Draw29%

Nanjing City win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueNingbo Cixi Stadium

Line-ups

Ningbo Professional

Nanjing City

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ningbo Professional

Nanjing City

5Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ningbo Professional

Formation not confirmed

38 X. Chen

11 Liu Yue

5 Yao Diran

30 Liu Yang

23 Bai Jiajun

16 Chen Ao

19 Gao Haisheng

42 J. Yao

28 Zhang Lingfeng

45 S. Tomovic

10 Leonardo

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Lin Xiang

2 · K. Shang

34 · Z. Li

4 · Y. Zou

8 · Leo Cittadini

25 · Qu Geping

18 · Lin Chaocan

41 · Y. Xiao

9 · Men Yang

17 · Zhou Junchen

21 · Lin Wenkai

7 · K. Pang

Nanjing City

Formation not confirmed

26 Yang Chao

22 Meng Zhen

2 Wang Xijie

4 Zhao Chengle

15 Tayir Shewketjan

10 J. Ngom Mbekeli

11 Hu Rentian

18 Dong Honglin

14 W. Qurban

25 Bruno Baio

9 Ze Vitor

Coach · Yi'nan Li

Substitutes

21 · Xi Anjie

30 · Wei Minghe

13 · Zhai Zhaoyu

33 · Xiang Rongjun

37 · Dong Huayang

6 · Y. Zhou

31 · Zhu Qiwen

8 · Yang Dejiang

29 · Fu Shang

17 · An Bang

23 · Hu Jinghang

19 · Ma Fuyu

Our number · ningbo professional winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

48% The market41%

Us48%

~~Market~~41%

We make Ningbo Professional a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ningbo professional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ningbo Professional win	48%	41%	+7
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Nanjing City win	23%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	24%	−3
Ningbo Professional or draw	77%	71%	+6
Ningbo Professional clean sheet	41%	–	–
Nanjing City clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.1 7.8 4.1 1 12.7 13.3 5.6 2 9.7 8.6 4.0 3 4.7 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ningbo Professional down, Nanjing City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,539 League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ningbo Professional at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nanjing City away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Ningbo Professional, 0.91 for Nanjing City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NAN 1–2 NIN

Form · last six in League One

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL

DLWLLL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

NANJING CITY

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Wuxi Wugou	26	+10	36
7	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
8	Hebei Kungfu	26	−2	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	−3	35
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	26	−5	31
12	Dalian Huayi	26	−7	30
13	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16