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Nantong Zhiyun v Shenzhen Juniors

Nantong Zhiyun

1–0Full time

Shenzhen Juniors

League One · SAT 24 OCT · Rugao Olympic Sports Center

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Nantong Zhiyun 1–0 Shenzhen Juniors NANTONG ZHIYUN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nantong Zhiyun win~~54%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.314

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.323

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nantong Zhiyun win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nantong Zhiyun 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–19
1′KICK-OFF Nantong Zhiyun v Shenzhen Juniors
12′Deng Yubiao scores for Nantong Zhiyun on 12′. 0–0 · 52–28–20
12′We said Nantong Zhiyun at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–6
12′Deng Yubiao scores for Nantong Zhiyun on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–6
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Nantong Zhiyun 1–0 Shenzhen Juniors · Deng Yubiao
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Nantong Zhiyun win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' An Yifei · Nantong Zhiyun
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Zhao Yingjie · Shenzhen Juniors
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Shang Yin · Shenzhen Juniors
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Hu Mingfei · Nantong Zhiyun
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Luo Xin · Nantong Zhiyun
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Ye Daochi · Off: Ruan Yang
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Nantong Zhiyun win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Ruan Yang · Nantong Zhiyun
62′We said Nantong Zhiyun at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Su Yuliang · Off: Liu Xiaolong
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Shi Yucheng · Off: Zhao Yingjie
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Liu Ye · Off: Dai Yuanji
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Liu Weicheng · Off: Deng Yubiao
76′We said Nantong Zhiyun at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Nantong Zhiyun win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We said Nantong Zhiyun at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shenzhen Juniors · On: Huang Jiajun · Off: Shang Yin
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nantong Zhiyun · On: R. Dujardin · Off: An Yifei
96′Nantong Zhiyun are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 99–1–0
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' E. Gonzalez · Nantong Zhiyun
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' E. Gonzalez · Nantong Zhiyun
96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+6' E. Gonzalez · Nantong Zhiyun
FTFULL TIME Nantong Zhiyun 1–0 Shenzhen Juniors
FTNantong Zhiyun 1–0 Shenzhen Juniors · Nantong Zhiyun win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nantong Zhiyun are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nantong Zhiyun 54%, draw 26%, Shenzhen Juniors 19%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Nantong Zhiyun v Shenzhen JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nantong Zhiyun win54%

Draw26%

Shenzhen Juniors win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueRugao Olympic Sports Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nantong Zhiyun

Shenzhen Juniors

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	+16	51
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nantong zhiyun winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market54%

Us54%

~~Market~~54%

We make Nantong Zhiyun a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nantong Zhiyun v Shenzhen Juniors~~1.67 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 51 v 46~~2 v 4

~~The market · Nantong Zhiyun win~~54% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nantong Zhiyun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nantong Zhiyun win	54%	54%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Shenzhen Juniors win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Nantong Zhiyun or draw	81%	79%	+2
Nantong Zhiyun clean sheet	41%	–	–
Shenzhen Juniors clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 9.0 6.0 3.1 1 11.9 12.2 5.1 2 10.6 9.3 4.2 3 6.0 5.2 2.3 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nantong Zhiyun down, Shenzhen Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,552 League One matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nantong Zhiyun at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shenzhen Juniors away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Nantong Zhiyun, 0.90 for Shenzhen Juniors. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SHE 0–0 NAN · SHE 0–3 NAN · NAN 5–0 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 Sept

NANTONG ZHIYUN

WLWWWW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

SHENZHEN JUNIORS

WDDLDD5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	+16	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	27	0	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	27	−15	25
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16