Nanjing City v Hebei Kungfu prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Nanjing City 1–0 Hebei Kungfu HEBEI KUNGFU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hebei Kungfu win~~40%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.440

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hebei Kungfu win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hebei Kungfu 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 27–33–39
1′KICK-OFF Nanjing City v Hebei Kungfu
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Hu Rentian · Nanjing City
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Hebei Kungfu win 35%)
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' W. Wong · Nanjing City
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Yang Dejiang · Nanjing City
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hebei Kungfu win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
45′HALF-TIME Nanjing City 0–0 Hebei Kungfu
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nanjing City · On: Zhai Zhaoyu · Off: Yang He
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nanjing City · On: Hu Jinghang · Off: W. Wong
46′SECOND HALF Nanjing City 0–0 Hebei Kungfu
51′We said Hebei Kungfu at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 21–51–28
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Dong Honglin · Nanjing City
60′We said Hebei Kungfu at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–57–24
64′Nanjing City ahead on 64′ through Ze Vitor. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–19–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Nanjing City 1–0 Hebei Kungfu · Ze Vitor
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Hebei Kungfu win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Nanjing City win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 19%)
65′We said Hebei Kungfu at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 78–18–3
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Du Zhixuan · Hebei Kungfu
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nanjing City · On: Zhu Qiwen · Off: Bruno Baio
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hebei Kungfu · On: Zhou Wenhao · Off: Du Zhixuan
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hebei Kungfu · On: Ma Junliang · Off: H. Vidal
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hebei Kungfu · On: C. Zhao · Off: Guo Lingzi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nanjing City · On: Zhao Chengle · Off: Yang Dejiang
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Hebei Kungfu win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hebei Kungfu · On: Zhao Shuhao · Off: Zheng Zhiyun
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hebei Kungfu · On: Chen Hao-Wei · Off: T. Conraad
FTFULL TIME Nanjing City 1–0 Hebei Kungfu
FTNanjing City 1–0 Hebei Kungfu · Hebei Kungfu win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hebei Kungfu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nanjing City 27%, draw 33%, Hebei Kungfu 40%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Nanjing City v Hebei KungfuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nanjing City win27%

Draw33%

Hebei Kungfu win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 27

VenueWutaishan Stadium

Line-ups

Nanjing City

Hebei Kungfu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nanjing City

Hebei Kungfu

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hebei Kungfu	26	+1	37
14	Nanjing City	26	−16	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nanjing City

Formation not confirmed

26 Yang Chao

18 Dong Honglin

2 Wang Xijie

15 Tayir Shewketjan

16 Yang He

5 W. Wong

8 Yang Dejiang

11 Hu Rentian

14 W. Qurban

25 Bruno Baio

9 Ze Vitor

Coach · Yi'nan Li

Substitutes

21 · Xi Anjie

30 · Wei Minghe

13 · Zhai Zhaoyu

33 · Xiang Rongjun

20 · Liu Le

4 · Zhao Chengle

6 · Y. Zhou

27 · Zheng Xuejian

31 · Zhu Qiwen

29 · Fu Shang

23 · Hu Jinghang

19 · Ma Fuyu

Hebei Kungfu

Formation not confirmed

13 Li Xuebo

12 Song Haoyu

36 Yang Yun

5 Niu Ziyi

27 Hakimhan Ernar

18 Zheng Zhiyun

9 Guo Lingzi

10 H. Vidal

8 Du Zhixuan

7 T. Conraad

31 Dominic Vinicius

Coach · Jesus Tato

Substitutes

19 · Li Ya'nan

33 · Y. Li

29 · P. Shan

3 · Li Jingrun

25 · I. Kurban

6 · Zhao Shuhao

26 · Ma Junliang

15 · C. Zhao

30 · Zhou Wenhao

14 · X. Jiayi

39 · B. Liu

38 · Chen Hao-Wei

Our number · hebei kungfu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market26%

Us40%

~~Market~~26%

We make Hebei Kungfu a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nanjing City v Hebei Kungfu~~0.88 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 37~~14 v 7

~~The market · Hebei Kungfu win~~26% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hebei Kungfu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nanjing City win	27%	46%	−19
Draw	33%	28%	+5
Hebei Kungfu win	40%	26%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	32%	42%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	47%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	60%	67%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	15%	22%	−7
Nanjing City or draw	60%	74%	−14
Nanjing City clean sheet	33%	–	–
Hebei Kungfu clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.2 13.9 8.4 3.2 1 10.7 14.2 7.2 2.7 2 5.3 5.8 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nanjing City down, Hebei Kungfu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nanjing City at home: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hebei Kungfu away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Nanjing City, 1.12 for Hebei Kungfu. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~HEB 2–1 NAN · NAN 1–3 HEB · HEB 2–0 NAN · NAN 1–1 HEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

NANJING CITY

LLLLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–0

HEBEI KUNGFU

WWDWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	26	+33	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	+15	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	+13	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	26	+19	42
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	26	+1	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	27	−3	32
10	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
11	Dalian Huayi	27	−7	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	26	−16	22
15	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16