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Meizhou Kejia v Wuxi Wugou

Meizhou Kejia

0–3Full time

Wuxi Wugou

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Meizhou Kejia 0–3 Wuxi Wugou WUXI WUGOU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wuxi Wugou win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wuxi Wugou win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wuxi Wugou was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Meizhou Kejia v Wuxi Wugou
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Wuxi Wugou · Chen Guokang
22′Chen Guokang scores for Wuxi Wugou on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Wuxi Wugou win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Wuxi Wugou · On: Zhou Pinxi · Off: Gui Zihan
43′We published Wuxi Wugou at 43%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 8–20–72
45′HALF-TIME Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Wuxi Wugou
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meizhou Kejia · On: Li Jiarun · Off: J. Lai
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wuxi Wugou · On: N. Noordanus · Off: Li Boxi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wuxi Wugou · On: Dong Kaining · Off: Chen Guokang
46′SECOND HALF Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Wuxi Wugou
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Wuxi Wugou · On: Tang Rui · Off: Wang Yifan
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Meizhou Kejia · On: Wang Haoran · Off: Q. Wen
66′We published Wuxi Wugou at 43%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 4–18–78
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Meizhou Kejia · On: Zhang Enqi · Off: Z. Wen
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Wuxi Wugou win: 43% at kick-off, 78% now
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Meizhou Kejia 0–2 Wuxi Wugou · Tang Rui
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Wuxi Wugou · On: Lin Jiahao · Off: He Wei
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Meizhou Kejia 0–3 Wuxi Wugou · N. Noordanus
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Meizhou Kejia · On: H. Luo · Off: J. Liao
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Meizhou Kejia · On: Su Jiale · Off: Li Jiarun Corrected
86′Wuxi Wugou ahead on 79′ through N. Noordanus. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Wuxi Wugou win: 43% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Meizhou Kejia 0–3 Wuxi Wugou
FTMeizhou Kejia 0–3 Wuxi Wugou · Wuxi Wugou win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Meizhou Kejia win32%

Draw25%

Wuxi Wugou win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Meizhou Kejia

Formation not confirmed

12 Sun Jianxiang

22 J. Liao

29 Sun Xiaobin

5 T. Pellenard

20 Z. Wen

33 Zhu Baojie

13 J. Lai

24 H. Sakhi

32 Q. Wen

10 V. Triboulet

16 Yang Chaosheng

Coach · Quim

Substitutes

30 · H. Wang

1 · Wang Zehao

28 · Li Weijia

3 · Liang Jiahao

6 · Wang Haoran

45 · Su Jiale

15 · H. Luo

34 · J. Zhang

27 · Zhang Enqi

25 · Li Jiarun

35 · Yang Yunbo

Wuxi Wugou

Formation not confirmed

13 Zhu Yueqi

27 He Wei

25 Wang Zihao

4 T. Isic

22 Gui Zihan

7 N. Albarracin

6 Tursunjan Ahmat

38 Chen Guokang

9 Wang Yifan

37 Yi Xianlong

30 Li Boxi

Coach · Bruno Dias

Substitutes

14 · Hao Kesen

2 · Liu Boyang

5 · Lin Jiahao

26 · J. Gou

16 · Zhou Pinxi

23 · Dong Kaining

36 · Tang Rui

3 · Xie Xiaofan

31 · Zhou Yunyi

20 · Zhang Yonglong

19 · N. Noordanus

17 · Z. Sun

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Meizhou Kejia

Formation not confirmed

12 Sun Jianxiang

22 J. Liao

29 Sun Xiaobin

5 T. Pellenard

20 Z. Wen

33 Zhu Baojie

13 J. Lai

24 H. Sakhi

32 Q. Wen

10 V. Triboulet

16 Yang Chaosheng

Coach · Quim

Substitutes

30 · H. Wang

1 · Wang Zehao

28 · Li Weijia

3 · Liang Jiahao

6 · Wang Haoran

45 · Su Jiale

15 · H. Luo

34 · J. Zhang

27 · Zhang Enqi

25 · Li Jiarun

35 · Yang Yunbo

Wuxi Wugou

Formation not confirmed

13 Zhu Yueqi

27 He Wei

25 Wang Zihao

4 T. Isic

22 Gui Zihan

7 N. Albarracin

6 Tursunjan Ahmat

38 Chen Guokang

9 Wang Yifan

37 Yi Xianlong

30 Li Boxi

Coach · Bruno Dias

Substitutes

14 · Hao Kesen

2 · Liu Boyang

5 · Lin Jiahao

26 · J. Gou

16 · Zhou Pinxi

23 · Dong Kaining

36 · Tang Rui

3 · Xie Xiaofan

31 · Zhou Yunyi

20 · Zhang Yonglong

19 · N. Noordanus

17 · Z. Sun

Our number · wuxi wugou winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Wuxi Wugou a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wuxi wugou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Meizhou Kejia win	32%	33%	−1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Wuxi Wugou win	43%	40%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	52%	+7
Both teams to score	61%	56%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	74%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	37%	31%	+5
Meizhou Kejia or draw	57%	60%	−3
Meizhou Kejia clean sheet	20%	–	–
Wuxi Wugou clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 7.1 6.5 3.6 1 5.9 11.6 8.7 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.4 6.0 3.3 3 2.2 3.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Meizhou Kejia down, Wuxi Wugou across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,536 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wuxi Wugou away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Meizhou Kejia, 1.66 for Wuxi Wugou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~WUX 1–1 MEI

Form · last six in League One

MEIZHOU KEJIA

LDLWLD1–5 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

WUXI WUGOU

WLWLWD2–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	25	+31	57
2	Nantong Zhiyun	25	+14	45
3	Guangxi Hengchen	25	+13	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	+11	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	+15	39
6	Yanbian Longding	25	+6	36
7	Hebei Kungfu	25	−2	34
8	Changchun Yatai	25	−3	34
9	Wuxi Wugou	25	+7	33
10	Ningbo Professional	25	−4	32
11	Suzhou Dongwu	25	−5	30
12	Dalian Huayi	25	−7	29
13	Meizhou Kejia	25	−25	25
14	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	25	−11	24
15	Nanjing City	25	−16	21
16	Dongguan United	25	−24	16