Meizhou Kejia v Nantong Zhiyun prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun NANTONG ZHIYUN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nantong Zhiyun win~~58%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.268

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.207

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nantong Zhiyun win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nantong Zhiyun was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 18–25–58
1′KICK-OFF Meizhou Kejia v Nantong Zhiyun
4′4′: Hu Mingfei on the scoresheet for Nantong Zhiyun. 0–0 · 18–25–57
5′We published Nantong Zhiyun at 58%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun · Hu Mingfei
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Nantong Zhiyun win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 5–13–82
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Wang Haoran · Meizhou Kejia
45′HALF-TIME Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun
46′SECOND HALF Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Meizhou Kejia · On: H. Luo · Off: Wang Haoran
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Meizhou Kejia · On: J. Lai · Off: Q. Wen
59′We published Nantong Zhiyun at 58%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Nantong Zhiyun win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Ye Daochi · Off: Jia Boyan Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Liu Weicheng · Off: Deng Yubiao Corrected
75′We published Nantong Zhiyun at 58%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Meizhou Kejia · On: Su Jiale · Off: Li Jiarun
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Meizhou Kejia · On: Yang Yihu · Off: J. Liao
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Nantong Zhiyun · On: R. Dujardin · Off: An Yifei
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Liu Ye · Off: Dai Yuanji
84′We published Nantong Zhiyun at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Meizhou Kejia · On: Feng Gang · Off: Z. Wen
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' A. Kalulu · Nantong Zhiyun
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Nantong Zhiyun win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Nantong Zhiyun · On: Beshathan Zanhar · Off: Ye Daochi
FTFULL TIME Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun
FTMeizhou Kejia 0–1 Nantong Zhiyun · Nantong Zhiyun win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nantong Zhiyun are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Meizhou Kejia 18%, draw 25%, Nantong Zhiyun 58%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Meizhou Kejia v Nantong ZhiyunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Meizhou Kejia win18%

Draw25%

Nantong Zhiyun win58%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 27

VenueWuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

Line-ups

Meizhou Kejia

Nantong Zhiyun

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Meizhou Kejia

Nantong Zhiyun

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	+15	48
15	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Meizhou Kejia

Formation not confirmed

12 Sun Jianxiang

22 J. Liao

29 Sun Xiaobin

5 T. Pellenard

20 Z. Wen

25 Li Jiarun

24 H. Sakhi

6 Wang Haoran

32 Q. Wen

16 Yang Chaosheng

10 V. Triboulet

Coach · Quim

Substitutes

30 · H. Wang

1 · Wang Zehao

17 · Yang Yihu

28 · Li Weijia

3 · Liang Jiahao

31 · Feng Gang

45 · Su Jiale

13 · J. Lai

15 · H. Luo

34 · J. Zhang

27 · Zhang Enqi

35 · Yang Yunbo

Nantong Zhiyun

Formation not confirmed

1 Nie Xuran

21 Lucas Kal

6 Hu Mingfei

4 Luo Xin

36 Dai Yuanji

26 Deng Yubiao

28 An Yifei

27 Wu Xingyu

10 A. Kalulu

14 E. Gonzalez

37 Jia Boyan

Coach · Dae-Eui Kim

Substitutes

16 · Lu Jin

7 · Ye Daochi

5 · Shen Chao

2 · Xu Hui

15 · Liu Wei

23 · R. Dujardin

8 · Liu Weicheng

20 · Jiang Jiapeng

40 · Beshathan Zanhar

17 · Ling Jie

39 · Liu Ye

Our number · nantong zhiyun winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market63%

Us58%

~~Market~~63%

We make Nantong Zhiyun a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Meizhou Kejia v Nantong Zhiyun~~0.90 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 48~~15 v 2

~~The market · Nantong Zhiyun win~~63% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nantong Zhiyun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Meizhou Kejia win	18%	14%	+4
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Nantong Zhiyun win	58%	63%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Meizhou Kejia or draw	42%	37%	+5
Meizhou Kejia clean sheet	17%	–	–
Nantong Zhiyun clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.9 11.0 10.7 6.6 3.2 1 5.0 11.5 9.4 5.7 2.7 2 2.8 4.8 4.2 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Meizhou Kejia down, Nantong Zhiyun across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,549 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nantong Zhiyun away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Meizhou Kejia, 1.84 for Nantong Zhiyun. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NAN 1–3 MEI · MEI 2–1 NAN · NAN 1–0 MEI · MEI 0–4 NAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 30 Aug

MEIZHOU KEJIA

DLWLDL1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3

NANTONG ZHIYUN

DWLWWW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	26	+33	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	+15	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	+13	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	26	+19	42
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	26	+1	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	27	−3	32
10	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
11	Dalian Huayi	27	−7	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	26	−16	22
15	Meizhou Kejia	26	−28	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16