Heilongjiang Lava Spring v Yanbian Longding prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Heilongjiang Lava SpringDrawYanbian Longding

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Yanbian Longding 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yanbian Longding are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 31%, draw 27%, Yanbian Longding 42%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Heilongjiang Lava Spring v Yanbian LongdingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Heilongjiang Lava Spring win31%

Draw27%

Yanbian Longding win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueDingnan Football Youth Training Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Yanbian Longding

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yanbian longding winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Yanbian Longding a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heilongjiang Lava Spring v Yanbian Longding~~1.23 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 39~~13 v 6

~~The market · Yanbian Longding win~~32% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yanbian Longding win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heilongjiang Lava Spring win	31%	40%	−9
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Yanbian Longding win	42%	32%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw	58%	68%	−10
Heilongjiang Lava Spring clean sheet	24%	–	–
Yanbian Longding clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.0 8.9 7.2 3.6 1 7.4 12.9 8.6 4.3 2 5.2 7.3 5.3 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heilongjiang Lava Spring down, Yanbian Longding across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Yanbian Longding away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Heilongjiang Lava Spring, 1.47 for Yanbian Longding. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~YAN 3–0 HEI · HEI 2–1 YAN · YAN 3–0 HEI · HEI 0–1 YAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING

LLDDLW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 2–0

YANBIAN LONGDING

LLLDLW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	+16	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	27	0	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	27	−15	25
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16