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Hebei Kungfu v Ningbo Professional

Hebei Kungfu
3–2Full time
Ningbo Professional

League One · SAT 24 OCT · Yutong International Sports Center

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Hebei Kungfu 3–2 Ningbo Professional HEBEI KUNGFU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hebei Kungfu win41%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.528
The market’s Brier score0.529

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hebei Kungfu win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hebei Kungfu was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–34–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hebei Kungfu v Ningbo Professional
  4. 4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' H. Vidal · Hebei Kungfu
  5. 6′C. Zhao scores for Hebei Kungfu on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  6. 6′We published Hebei Kungfu at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  7. 6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Hebei Kungfu 1–0 Ningbo Professional · C. Zhao
  8. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Hebei Kungfu win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
  9. 15′15′: Guo Lingzi on the scoresheet for Hebei Kungfu, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  10. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Hebei Kungfu 2–0 Ningbo Professional · Guo Lingzi
  11. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Hebei Kungfu win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
  12. 16′We published Hebei Kungfu at 41%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  13. 24′Hebei Kungfu ahead on 24′ through Guo Lingzi. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  14. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Hebei Kungfu 3–0 Ningbo Professional · Guo Lingzi
  15. 25′We published Hebei Kungfu at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  17. 34′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Ningbo Professional · On: Zhou Junhao · Off: K. Pang
  18. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Yao Diran · Ningbo Professional
  19. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Ningbo Professional · On: Bai Jiajun · Off: K. Shang
  20. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Ningbo Professional · On: Zhou Junchen · Off: Zhang Lingfeng
  21. 44′We published Hebei Kungfu at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Hebei Kungfu 3–0 Ningbo Professional
  23. 46′SECOND HALF Hebei Kungfu 3–0 Ningbo Professional
  24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ningbo Professional · On: Men Yang · Off: Leo Cittadini
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Hebei Kungfu · On: Ma Junliang · Off: H. Vidal
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hebei Kungfu · On: B. Liu · Off: Guo Lingzi
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hebei Kungfu · On: I. Kurban · Off: Yang Yun
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hebei Kungfu · On: Zhou Wenhao · Off: C. Zhao
  29. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ningbo Professional · On: Lin Wenkai · Off: S. Tomovic
  30. 78′Yao Diran scores for Ningbo Professional on 78′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 78′4 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hebei Kungfu 3–1 Ningbo Professional · Yao Diran
  33. 83′Lin Wenkai scores for Ningbo Professional on 77′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 88′87′: Lin Wenkai on the scoresheet for Ningbo Professional, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
  35. 88′That is 5, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 97–3–0
  36. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Hebei Kungfu 3–2 Ningbo Professional · Lin Wenkai (assist Leonardo)
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hebei Kungfu · On: X. Jiayi · Off: Du Zhixuan
  38. FTFULL TIME Hebei Kungfu 3–2 Ningbo Professional
  39. FTHebei Kungfu 3–2 Ningbo Professional · Hebei Kungfu win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hebei Kungfu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hebei Kungfu 41%, draw 34%, Ningbo Professional 25%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Hebei Kungfu v Ningbo ProfessionalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hebei Kungfu win41%
Draw34%
Ningbo Professional win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueYutong International Sports Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hebei Kungfu

Ningbo Professional

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Hebei Kungfu27037
11Ningbo Professional27−431

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hebei kungfu winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
41% The market41%
Us41%
Market41%

We make Hebei Kungfu a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hebei Kungfu v Ningbo Professional1.07 – 0.77
Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 37 v 317 v 11
The market · Hebei Kungfu win41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:15
Our probability · Hebei Kungfu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hebei Kungfu win41%41%0
Draw34%32%+2
Ningbo Professional win25%28%−3
Over 2.5 goals28%38%−10
Both teams to score36%44%−8
Over 1.5 goals55%62%−7
Over 3.5 goals12%20%−8
Hebei Kungfu or draw75%72%+3
Hebei Kungfu clean sheet47%––
Ningbo Professional clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.6%
0123450 17.6 11.1 4.7 1 15.8 13.8 4.9 2 9.0 6.8 2.6 3 3.3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hebei Kungfu down, Ningbo Professional across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsNIN 2–1 HEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 6 Sept

HEBEI KUNGFU

WDWWDL1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

NINGBO PROFESSIONAL

WLLLDD1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Guangzhou E-Power27+2960
2Nantong Zhiyun27+1651
3Guangxi Hengchen28+1247
4Shenzhen Juniors27+1146
5Shaanxi Union27+2345
6Yanbian Longding27+1039
7Hebei Kungfu27037
8Wuxi Wugou27+836
9Changchun Yatai28035
10Dalian Huayi28−634
11Ningbo Professional27−431
12Suzhou Dongwu27−828
13Heilongjiang Lava Spring27−1127
14Nanjing City27−1525
15Meizhou Kejia28−3216
16Dongguan United27−3316

The competition's standings before kick-off.