Guangzhou E-Power v Suzhou Dongwu prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Guangzhou E-PowerDrawSuzhou Dongwu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Guangzhou E-Power 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guangzhou E-Power are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guangzhou E-Power 61%, draw 23%, Suzhou Dongwu 16%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Guangzhou E-Power v Suzhou DongwuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Guangzhou E-Power win61%

Draw23%

Suzhou Dongwu win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueHuangpu Sports Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guangzhou E-Power

Suzhou Dongwu

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Chinese League One

Last match: 17 Oct · the Chinese League One

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guangzhou e-power winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market56%

Us61%

~~Market~~56%

We make Guangzhou E-Power a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guangzhou E-Power v Suzhou Dongwu~~1.92 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 60 v 28~~1 v 12

~~The market · Guangzhou E-Power win~~56% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guangzhou E-Power win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guangzhou E-Power win	61%	56%	+5
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Suzhou Dongwu win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Guangzhou E-Power or draw	84%	81%	+3
Guangzhou E-Power clean sheet	42%	–	–
Suzhou Dongwu clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 7.3 4.7 2.4 1 11.0 11.0 4.5 2 11.1 9.5 4.2 3 7.1 6.1 2.7 4 3.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guangzhou E-Power down, Suzhou Dongwu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guangzhou E-Power at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Suzhou Dongwu away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Guangzhou E-Power, 0.88 for Suzhou Dongwu. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SUZ 2–2 GUA · SUZ 0–1 GUA · GUA 3–2 SUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

GUANGZHOU E-POWER

DDWWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 0–4

SUZHOU DONGWU

WWDDDD2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	27	+29	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	+16	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	+12	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	+11	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	+23	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	+10	39
7	Hebei Kungfu	27	0	37
8	Wuxi Wugou	27	+8	36
9	Changchun Yatai	28	0	35
10	Dalian Huayi	28	−6	34
11	Ningbo Professional	27	−4	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	−8	28
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	27	−11	27
14	Nanjing City	27	−15	25
15	Meizhou Kejia	28	−32	16
16	Dongguan United	27	−33	16